In many ways, Belarus could be considered a party to the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to use its territory and airspace to conduct operations in the conflict. In return, she received S400 air defense systems, nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missiles [les mêmes que ceux utilisés par les forces russes, nldr] and airplanes capable of transporting “special ammunition”. And it should soon receive additional Su-30SM, as well as Mil Mi-35 helicopters.
In addition, given “the deterioration of the situation on the western borders of the European Union [russo-biélorusse] Minsk and Moscow established a joint “regional military group” which was declared operational last December. With 9,000 Russian soldiers, it would have MiG-31K aircraft [porteur du missile hypersonique Kinjal], Tor M-2 surface-to-air systems, Uragan and Grad multiple rocket launchers, and T-80 tanks. In addition, the Belarusian authorities have called up some reservists.
In Kiev, too, where a large-scale Russian offensive is expected by the end of this winter, the hypothesis of Belarusian armed forces being involved in the war is being taken seriously. “We are preparing for all possible defense scenarios. […] The situation on Ukraine’s border with Russia and Belarus is being discussed with military commanders. It is an ongoing priority,” said Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, during his daily speech on December 18.
Is such a scenario imminent? On February 10, Poland announced it would close one of its key border crossings with Belarus, in this case Brobrowniki, “until further notice”. And this for reasons of “security of the state”. And on February 13, France ordered its nationals to leave Belarusian territory “immediately”. However, that of Brest-Terespol remains open for the time being.
“In connection with Russia’s armed offensive against Ukraine and the closure of Belarusian airspace, any travel to Belarus is officially discouraged. The French staying in Belarus are urged to leave the country immediately by road through the Lithuanian, Polish or Latvian border crossings, actually called the Quai d’Orsay. Why did you issue this notice now… and not sooner when the conditions it describes have been the same for almost a year?
But since the beginning of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, Belarus had also closed its airspace. “I received information about the formation of groups in Poland and Lithuania so that when a conflict with Ukraine starts, they can be used as an excuse to pass through Belarus by air and land and hit Russia in the back. Therefore, I warned that we will not be traitors and will not allow you to shoot the Russians in the back,” said then-Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Furthermore, Washington has announced that it has reached a similar agreement… but for Russia. “US citizens residing or traveling in Russia should leave the country immediately,” the US embassy in Moscow said. And to invoke the war in Ukraine and, most importantly, the threat of “arbitrary arrest or harassment” by Russian security forces.