Polish President Andrzej Duda, Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a news conference at the Elysee Palace June 12, 2023. SARAH MEYSSONNIER / AP
Defend the prospect of Ukraine joining the Atlantic Alliance (NATO) to influence the conflict and try to bring Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table. It’s the approach France is now favoring in the thorny discussions between Ukraine’s allies ahead of the annual NATO summit on July 11-12 in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania.
According to our information, a Defense Council that met recently on Monday, June 12, at the Elysée Palace examined the hypothesis of a possible accession of Ukraine, an option that is now considered in Paris as a security guarantee in its own right, as it is likely to discourage Russia from pursuing it prevent the war from continuing or, should the conflict end, prevent any new aggression. By the way, the silencing of this prospect could persuade Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to enter into negotiations when he deems it the right time, depending on the results of the counter-offensive.
As tactical as it may be, this opening represents a real turning point for France. With this move, Paris is aligning itself with the positions of the countries of Central Europe, most of which, led by Poland and the Baltic States, are tirelessly campaigning for NATO membership Plead Ukraine. “The French position is now closer to that of Poland than that of Germany,” confirms a foreign diplomat.
Read the decryption: Article reserved for our subscribers. Western differences on Ukraine’s accession to NATO
In 2008, at the Bucharest summit, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, blocked any prospect of Ukraine’s speedy entry into NATO, contrary to the advice of the United States, which advocated integration soon. According to the two European heads of state and government, this is a way of sparing Russia.
Offer “safety guarantees.”
Emmanuel Macron stuck to this line for a long time, before and after the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022: “Ukraine’s accession to NATO would be perceived by Russia as something confrontational.” You can’t imagine that with this Russia,” das said Head of State in December 2022 to Le Monde.
France is obviously out of the question of allowing Ukraine to join NATO in the midst of war, a prospect the United States and Germany fear primarily because it could lead to the activation of the agreement’s mutual assistance clause (Article 5) of the organization and throw the westerners into the conflict. “For a soldier, getting a country at war to join NATO is like going to war,” confirms a French military source. Moreover, this weekend, American President Joe Biden reiterated that Ukraine’s candidacy could not benefit from preferential treatment.
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