Macron, the current president of France, appears poised to take 28.6% of the vote to take first place, according to an analysis by pollster IFOP-Fiducial for French broadcasters TF1 and LCI. Le Pen, a longtime flag-bearer of France’s far-right, is on course for second with 23.6%.
Twelve candidates ran for the top job. If neither of them gets more than 50% of the votes, the top two finishers will face off in a runoff on April 24. But a second round is all but guaranteed – no French presidential candidate has ever won in the first round under the current system.
According to IFOP-Fiducial, the competition was marked by voter apathy. Turnout was estimated at 73.3%, the lowest in a first round in 20 years. While Macron appears on course to win the first round, he is a polarizing figure whose approval rating lagged behind during his first term.
Macron is aiming to become the first French president to be re-elected since Jacques Chirac in 2002. While polls have given him a consistent lead over the field, the race has clearly intensified over the past month.
Le Pen’s support has steadily increased in recent weeks. Although best known for her far-right policies such as drastic restrictions on immigration and banning Muslim headscarves in public places, this time she has led a mainstream campaign, softening her language and focusing more on budget issues such as the rising cost of living, a major concern of the French electorate.
In her speech on Sunday, Le Pen vowed to be a president for “all French” if she wins the second round and urged those who didn’t vote for Macron to support her in the second round.
Leftist arsonist Jean-Luc Melenchon came in third with 20.1%. Melenchon enjoyed a late surge in support and was seen as a possible candidate to challenge Macron.
According to the analysis, no other candidate received more than 10% of the votes. Far-right political commentator-turned-presidential candidate Eric Zemmour, who had a spot in the top three candidates by March according to the IFOP poll, was fourth with 7%.
Those candidates who are poised to lose have quickly begun throwing their support behind the top two. While Zemmour urged his supporters to vote for Le Pen, the others urged their supporters to stay away from her.
Melenchon told his supporters that “we must not give Ms Le Pen a single vote,” and the candidates from the traditional centre-left and centre-right parties, the Socialists and the Republicans, have already backed Macron.
Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo said a Le Pen victory would inspire “a hatred from all against all” in France, while Republican Valerie Pecresse said she was genuinely concerned for the country because “the extreme right has never been so short.” before victory.”
“Marine Le Pen’s project will open France to discord, impotence and collapse,” Pecresse said.
The rematch
Pre-race polls indicated that a second round by Macron versus Le Pen was the most likely outcome. Macron easily beat Le Pen five years ago, but pundits have said a second fight between the pair would be much closer than the 2017 race.
Macron is no longer a political upstart and has had a mixed record. While his ambitious plan to boost the European Union’s autonomy and geopolitical clout has garnered him respect abroad and at home, he remains a divisive figure on the domestic front. His handling of the Yellow Vests movement, one of France’s longest-running protests in decades, has been widely panned and his accounts of the Covid-19 pandemic are inconclusive.
Macron’s signature policy during the crisis – requiring people to show proof of vaccination in order to continue living normally – helped boost vaccination rates but fueled a vocal minority against his presidency.
Macron has campaigned very little so far. Experts believe his strategy was to avoid political mudslinging for as long as possible in order to polish his image as the presidential candidate of all candidates. Polls showed he consistently led all candidates, and he was considered a shoo-in to reach the second round.
“Widespread dissatisfaction with Macron (particularly among young people) means the outcome is uncertain and unpredictable. Le Pen will continue to exploit this, and therefore a major political upset remains possible,” Dominic Thomas, chair of UCLA’s Department of French and French Francophone Studies, said of the potential second round.
Le Pen has tried to portray herself as a very different candidate from the one who easily lost to Macron in 2017 as she tried to position herself before the forgotten French working classes as her country’s response to then-US President Donald Trump. While her economic nationalist stance, views on immigration, Euroscepticism and positions on Islam remain unchanged in France, Le Pen has sought to broaden her appeal.
The contest was initially predicted to be a referendum on far-right dominance in French politics, but the war in Ukraine — another key issue for voters — has turned the race on its head.
Macron has a firm grip on first place in most pre-election polls this year. IFOP polls showed his support peaked in early March, when potential voters rallied around the flag and rewarded the president for his attempts, even if they failed, to settle the conflict in Ukraine ahead of the Russian invasion.
Many pundits also expected the war to hurt Le Pen, who had been a vocal admirer of Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader who has become a pariah in the West over the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February. Le Pen visited the Russian president during her 2017 election campaign, but this time she was forced to scrap a leaflet with a photo of her and Putin from that trip after Russia’s unprovoked attack on its neighbor.