The future President of the Republic in France it is decided at the vote between Emmanuel Macron and Marine LePen. After the first screening (IpsosSopra Steria), the outgoing President gets that 27.6% of preferences and is almost ahead five points compared to the candidate of Rally National (23%) who remains in second place despite the comeback of the last few weeks. Third, with a result that exceeds all expectations, Jean Luc Melenchon (22.2%): The leader of the radical left narrowly misses the ticket for the second ballot, can capitalize on the “useful vote” but pays hard for the atomization of the left. In his first address to supporters, he announced: “Now You don’t have to give Marine Le Pen a single vote“. On the opposite side, the rightwing extremist candidate Eric Zemmour stops 7.2% and instead invited to support their own Le Pen. The Republican candidate’s result was disappointing Valerie Pécresse who pauses in fifth place (5%) and declares his support for the outgoing president (and abandons his colleagues on the right). The Green candidate will also support Macron Yannik Jadot which made no more than 4.4% and the Socialist Anne Hidalgo, which fell below 2 percent (1.7 percent). The candidate of Communist Party of France Fabian Roussel which took 2.7%. Macron promises to train them “a major political movement of unity and actionAnd speaking to his supporters, he reiterated that in 15 days’ time, “the future of France and that of Europe will be at stake”. All the voters who left the polling stations will also be crucial: the abstention, as expected, actually touched the 26.2% and it’s four points higher than the last round. According to the latest polls released by le Parisien, Macron would win with in the second round 54% against Marine Le Pen’s 46. But the 15day election campaign has only just begun.
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Rightwing extremist Le Pen is now asking for Zemmour’s votes For the second time Marine LePen will challenge Emmanuel Macron to the ballot. It’s certainly a win for the leader of the Rassemblement National (she won the first round five years ago). 21.3% with 7 million and 600,000 votes), even if the result fell compared to expectations. In fact, for the last fifteen days it has been growing so rapidly that the outgoing president feared he would lose the first position. The big overtake was unsuccessful in the end and now she has to make an effort to gather support if she wants to hope for victory. “Everyone who didn’t vote for Emmanuel Macron today You are invited to join our group‘ he said in his speech to supporters. Le Pen first looks at the supporters of the only candidate to her right, Eric Zemmour, which only got 7 percent and doesn’t have much to offer: “I have many disagreements with Marine Le Pen, but before her stands a man who brought in millions of immigrants and who will be worse off if he is reelected ‘ said the reporter. “I therefore urge you to vote for Le Pen”. Whoever on the right has already given up on Le Pen is the Republican candidate Valerie Pécresse: “In the vote” I will vote for Emmanuel Macron to the best of my ability, “he said, declaring that” Marine Le Pen’s project would lead the country to discord, to bankruptcy. his closeness to Vladimir Putin discredits him“.
Macron takes first place. But now he needs Mélenchon’s votes After a day that even his staff described as “very tense”, the outgoing President breathed a sigh of relief: He is in front Marine LePen and from that advantage (in the first round 5 years ago he got 24% with 8 million and 600,000 votes) he can start again. But that’s not enough for a good night’s sleep. Especially since the pool of voters he now has to look at is that of the radical left Jean Luc Melenchon and that has more than once branded him as the president of the “rich”. The outgoing President began in front of his supporters: “Nothing is acquired, the debate we are going to have over the next fifteen days is crucial for France and for Europe. He then turned to the other candidates on the left and said he was ready to join them in a new project: “Thank you Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Valerie Pécresse and Fabien Roussel, who supported me that evening. I will contact anyone who wants to work for France and is willing to invent something new to bring different sensibilities together and build with them a major political movement of unity and action“. Then he said: “I solemnly invite our fellow citizens to join us, whatever their choice in the first round.” And then, addressing Mélenchon in particular, he added: “Some will do it to build a wall against to set up the extreme right. I am fully aware that this is not support for my project and I respect it. I know that this is the choice made by, for example, Jean Luc Melenchon“.
In fact, the leader of the radical left had recently made it clear that none of his votes should go to Marine Le Pen. But he never mentioned the outgoing president and generally spoke of a “second conscience” vote. Will it be enough to convince his constituents? It’s very complex, and certainly getting harder and harder to form the Republican front that was created the other two times the extreme right went into the second round (20022017). Not to mention that Macron can count on weak support from the Socialists: Hidalgo, mayor of Paris and party candidate, did not even make it above 2 percent. Signs of a very serious crisis within the traditional parties. The result of the candidate Jadot does not satisfy the Greens either: the performance of the municipal and European had given hope for just over 4 percent, but the weakness of the name chosen for the presidential race did not allow for big dreams.
Abstention worsens: down four points compared to 2017 As predicted by polls and analysts, voter turnout has fallen again compared to five years ago. According to the Ipsos Institute for French Public Television, it was in the first round of 26.2%. In the first round 5 years ago, the abstention was del 22.2% in the first ballot, but in 2002, the year of the record abstention from voting, it rose to 28.4%, a record high.