PARIS (AP) – As war sears the eastern edge of the European Union, French voters will cast their ballots in a presidential election whose outcome will have international ramifications. France is the second economy of the 27-strong bloc, the only one with a UN Security Council veto, and its sole nuclear power. And as Russian President Vladimir Putin pursues the war in Ukraine, French power will help shape Europe’s response.
Twelve candidates are competing for the presidency – including incumbent and most popular President Emmanuel Macron, who is seeking a new term in the face of challenges from the far right.
This is why the election in France, which will take place in two rounds starting Sunday, is so important:
Nato
Russia’s war in Ukraine has given Macron a chance to demonstrate his influence on the international stage and brush up on his pro-Nato credentials in electoral debates. Macron is the only lead candidate to back the alliance, while other candidates have differing views on France’s role within the alliance, even abandoning it altogether. Such a development would deal a severe blow to an alliance formed 73 years ago to protect its members in the then nascent Cold War.
Despite declaring NATO’s “brain death” in 2019, the war in Ukraine has prompted Macron to try to bring a new sense of purpose to the alliance.
“Macron really wants to create a European pillar of NATO,” says Susi Dennison, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “He used it for his shuttle diplomacy in the Ukraine conflict.”
The far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon wants to leave NATO immediately, saying it produces nothing but strife and instability. A NATO-skeptical President Melenkhon could worry Poland in particular, which shares a 1,160-kilometer border with territory now controlled by Russia.
Several other candidates are calling for either reduced commitment to the alliance or a complete disengagement. Although unlikely, France’s exit from NATO would create a deep rift with its allies and alienate the United States.
EUROPEAN COOPERATION
Observers say a re-election of Macron would mean a real likelihood of increased cooperation and investment in European security and defense – especially with a new pro-EU German government.
Under Macron’s watch, France’s defense spending has increased by 7 billion euros ($7.6 billion) with a goal of boosting it to 2% of gross domestic product – something that leaders like Putin are watching closely. In his second term, Macron would almost certainly want to build a united European response to Ukraine and fend off Russian threats.
A far-right alliance?
This election could reshape France’s post-war identity and reveal whether European populism is on the rise or on the wane. With populist Viktor Orban days ago winning his fourth consecutive term as Hungary’s prime minister, eyes have now turned to France’s resurgent far-right candidate – in particular National Assembly leader Marine Le Pen, who wants to ban Muslim headscarves on the streets, and halal and kosher butchers, and drastically reduce immigration from outside Europe.
“If a far-right candidate wins, he could create some kind of alliance or axis in Europe,” said Dennison of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Le Pen has been tweeting pictures of herself shaking hands with Orban for the past few days. She is committed to a Europe of strong nation states.”
This axis could include Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, a right-wing populist and Donald Trump ally. It has alarmed observers.
“More than 30 percent of French voters currently say they will vote for a far-right candidate. Add in Melenchon as another extreme, anti-systemic candidate—that’s almost half of the entire electorate. This is unprecedented,” Dennison said.
Far-right candidate Eric Zemmour has dominated the French airwaves with his controversial views on Islam in France and immigration.
But even the centrist Macron caused an uproar in Muslim countries two years ago when he defended the right to publish cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. This happened during a tribute to a teacher who was beheaded by a fundamentalist for showing his students the cartoons as part of a free speech class.
A FRIEND OF AMERICA
The US often touts France as its oldest ally – and from Russian sanctions to climate change and the United Nations, Washington needs a reliable partner in Paris. France is a key transatlantic friend for America, not least because of its status as continental Europe’s only permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power.
Despite last year’s bitter dispute between the US and France over a multibillion-dollar deal to supply Australia with submarines – which humiliated France – President Joe Biden and Macron now have solid ties.
“Macron is obviously the only candidate who has a history and credentials in US relations. Everyone else would be starting from scratch at a time of great geopolitical uncertainty,” Dennison said.
Unlike Macron, an Elysee in the hands of Zemmour or Le Pen would likely mean he is less concerned with issues like climate change, which the US sees as a priority. “They may not prioritize the high economic costs of maintaining the Paris Climate Agreement and the potential to limit global warming to 1.5%,” Dennison added.
MIGRATION ON THE CONTINENT
With a huge influx of migrants into Europe over the past year, France’s stance on migration will continue to have a powerful impact on countries on its periphery and beyond. This is particularly true given its geographic location as a stage on the journey of many migrants to the UK
A migrant ship capsized in the English Channel last November, killing 27 people, sparking a dispute between France and Britain over who was responsible. The British accused France of not patrolling the coast well enough, but Macron said it was an impossible task. Observers do not consider France to be particularly open to migrants in the European context and see Macron as a relative hardliner when it comes to migration.
But Le Pen or Zemmour would likely embark on tougher policies than Macron if they both emerge victorious, such as cutting welfare benefits for non-French citizens and capping the number of asylum seekers. Some candidates have supported building Trump-style border fences.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the French election at https://apnews.com/hub/french-election-2022