The presidential election is often described as a long, well-codified obstacle course. But Donald Trump is once again promising to shake up America’s political history with a bang with his strange ballet punctuated by campaign rallies and court hearings.
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The coming election year will be marked by “fractures, fears and dangers for democracy,” predicts political scientist Larry Sabato.
In 12 months, the man who was one of the most controversial occupants of the White House and left Washington in an unimaginable fall from grace will once again appear before an electorate divided like never before.
If he wins on the evening of November 5, 2024, the tempestuous billionaire will not have simply defeated what he calls the system aligned against him: He will have spectacularly dodged four criminal charges, some of which threatened him with prison time. .
“Witch Hunt”
Within six months of this year, the septuagenarian was accused of suspicious payments to a former porn actress, electoral pressure during the 2020 presidential election and negligent handling of confidential documents after he left the White House.
No American president has ever had to endure the shame of impeachment. Donald Trump has 91 charges in these cases.
Even though the former president has pleaded not guilty in all of these cases, he has already made his legal problems a focus of his campaign.
With inflammatory emails, Donald Trump calls on his still very loyal base every day to support him against what he describes as a “witch hunt”.
The results are clear: $4 million was raised in the 24 hours after his first indictment, $7 million immediately after the second. 3 million in a week thanks to t-shirts, mugs and posters adorned with his incredible ID photo sold by his campaign team.
AFP
Trump’s crazy year
The financial gain is significant in a country where electoral victories cost billions of dollars. And it could grow even further from next January, with the completely extraordinary year that Donald Trump will have.
Election, trial, election, trial: The septuagenarian will begin this crazy saga in Iowa. The first Republican primaries of the year will take place in this small Midwestern state on January 15th – Donald Trump’s first hurdle on the way to the White House.
They certainly don’t occupy the same media space, but eight Republicans – governors, business owners and former leaders – like him are seeking their party’s 2024 nomination.
At the moment, Donald Trump has little to worry about. The former president is polling at about 59% among Republicans, well ahead of his main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is at 13%.
Will he keep that edge when his trials begin?
A judge has set March 4 as the date of her trial in Washington over her 2020 election pressures, a day before one of the key deadlines in the Republican primaries: Super Tuesday.
Another trial in March in New York, then in May in Florida… Donald Trump will have to juggle between his political meetings and the law for several months, a completely unprecedented scenario in American political history.
The septuagenarian, who has an undeniable directorial skill, will undoubtedly try to use these sequences to his advantage, taking advantage of the dizzying media attention that is still devoted to him.
The country, which has been living for eight years to the rhythm of his declarations, provocations and excesses, may not have seen anything yet: even convicted, Donald Trump could remain in the race for the White House – according to experts, nothing in the American Constitution does not prevent this.
Biden from the Oval Office
Donald Trump hopes to be inaugurated by Republicans in July at a major convention in Wisconsin – one of the crucial states for 2024.
With the official support of his party, outgoing President Joe Biden should, barring any major surprises, be named the official Democratic candidate in Chicago in August.
This is where the hypothetical rematch between the two men gets tricky.
How will the octogenarian, who is doing poorly in the polls and is now being checked for his physical condition every time he rides, position himself in the face of his possible rival’s legal problems?
“Biden will certainly make the Oval Office his campaign platform to remind voters that he is at the helm of the state doing his job, not in court,” academic Wendy Schiller told AFP.
Donald Trump, the defendant, versus Joe Biden, the octogenarian? There is no doubt that the 2024 election will be extraordinary in every way.