What will be in 2024? To dare to answer, we must of course start from the unresolved questions, first of all from the two most important wars (but there are others around the world), the one in Ukraine and the one in the Middle East. Then there are two crucial electoral events: the elections for the new occupant of the White House and the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament.
War in the Gaza Strip
It all started at dawn on October 7, 2023. The Hamas terrorists, through a statement from their commander Mohammed Deif, announced the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and launched a massive rocket attack on Israel with thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip. At the same time, some terrorists attacked Israeli military posts guarding the border, destroyed watchtowers and penetrated the border barrier. Approximately 2,500 Hamas terrorists entered Israeli territory using motorized means (including hang gliders). A true horror film with children, old people, women and defenseless civilians who fell victim to Hamas' brutality. The death toll stands at 1,140 Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack, which also took 250 hostages. Several hostages are still in the hands of Palestinian terrorists. Israel's response was obviously not long in coming: so far it has caused the deaths of at least 21,320 Palestinians (according to Hamas). Civilians were forced to move south. The war continues and its end cannot currently be predicted. No one is willing to give up an inch, and the presence of other international forces behind the scenes (such as Iran, which has always supported Hamas) suggests that this is the case middle East Now more than ever, it is a powder keg that is about to explode (even worse than now). Being able to contain the conflict in this area would already be an important result. However, peace seems to be a mirage at the moment.
War in Ukraine
February 24 marks two years of war between Russia and Ukraine. The date coincides with the Russian invasion, even though the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is in reality a political-diplomatic rather than a military one, which de facto began in February 2014. The intensification of the conflicts in recent weeks does not bode well for anything good. There is no point in beating around the bush: everything will depend on the aid that the European Union and the United States guarantee (or not) to Kiev. Only if these remain in place will Ukraine be able to continue to defend itself. The recent rejection of the new funds passed by the US Congress at the behest of Republicans is a serious warning for Kiev. If the US left Ukraine to its fate, it would be a sure victory for them Putin. And the same will happen if the USA and the European Union force Kiev to negotiate with Moscow and cede part of its territory (Donbass). Putin will be able to achieve victory. An endless war is obviously unthinkable. Sooner or later the actors have to stop and sit at a table. We'll see under what conditions. Obviously, it might be acceptable for Kiev to give up some land but join the EU (and NATO). But not for Moscow. To continue to defend yourself a Volodymyr Zelensky Money (as well as promises) is needed. The dream of joining the EU is important and undoubtedly represents remarkable support for the Ukrainian president. But the 50 billion euros in aid initially promised by Brussels was frozen due to the veto of the Hungarian president Viktor Orban (even if other countries didn't necessarily want to grant them) sent a bad signal to Ukraine, which was also denied the $6.2 billion requested by President Joe Biden.
European elections
From June 6th to 9th, 2024, European citizens will vote on the new European Parliament. The vote will be crucial in determining which political forces will represent the new European Commission. According to the latest polls, the current majority (EPP forces, Liberals and Social Democrats) should remain in the lead, but support from another force may be required. Which? Everything to discover. The far-right anti-EU parties, part of the Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the European Parliament, would win 87 of 705 seats in today's vote (they currently control 60). The ID is made up, among other things, of the Rassemblement National (RN). Marine Le Pen, which is leading the polls in France, by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is in second place in German polls, and by Matteo Salvini's League. Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party could choose to support the new center-right majority. However, it is not yet certain if this will happen, but FDI and Forza Italia are certainly on different sides compared to the league. The polls predict an electoral defeat for the Greens, falling from 72 to 52 seats, and a retreat for the liberal Renew faction, which could rise to 89 from the current 101 seats. European People's Party (PPE), center-right, could remain the main political force. It gets almost the same seats as today (175), while the Socialists have 141 seats. Based on these figures, a new pro-EU coalition could emerge made up of the EPP, Socialists, Democrats and Liberals.
Presidential elections in the USA
On November 5, 2024, US citizens will elect the new occupant of the White House. It will be the 60th presidential election in US history. The incumbent president will take office, Joe Bidenn and the winner of the Republican Party primary. The big favorite is the former president Donald Trump. But we have to wait and see how the situation develops at the judicial level for the tycoon, against whom several cases are pending. In addition, it remains to be seen how the Supreme Court will rule on the issue of ineligibility raised by the Supreme Courts of some states (Colorado and Maine) earlier this year, relying on section number three of the 14th Amendment. This constitutional law, passed in 1868, prohibits anyone who has participated in an insurrection or insurrection from holding public office. The finger is pointed at Trump, actually blaming him for the attack on the Capitol that took place on January 6, 2021. The Florida governor (and former Trump dolphin) is running full speed for Trump on intractable problems. Ron DeSantisand the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
immigration
Some global macroeconomic factors (in particular inflation and recession) could have a significant impact on the socio-economic conditions of some population groups, leading to a possible increase in migration flows to Europe. “Journeys of hope” are likely to increase in the eastern and central Mediterranean and from the EU’s external borders. The new European Pact on Migration and Asylum, which, to be clear, sent the Dublin Regulation to the attic by putting on paper greater solidarity between Member States, is under scrutiny. We'll see if it works or not. For some humanitarian organizations, it amounts to building new walls and erasing human rights. But unlimited hospitality is difficult to maintain in the interests of emigrants.
The challenges facing the Italian government
Given the increasing divisions in the opposition and the difficulties of creating a valid alternative, the majority faces an important challenge: to give continuity to its government, honor the commitments made and, if possible, implement the desired reforms. The main issue is institutional reform aimed at strengthening the powers of the Prime Minister. However, without forgetting the judicial reform that has been expected for years. In addition, the necessary means must be found to be able to structurally finance the tax cuts and the reduction in the tax and duty burden for only one year from the last financial measure. There is no point in hiding the fact that the results of the next European elections will have a certain significance, as they underline the balance of power between the different political forces, also in view of the new majority that will support the new European executive.