It was like the breakup scene in a bad romantic comedy. “It has nothing to do with you,” Senator Lindsey Graham assured Volodymyr Zelensky. “You did everything anyone could ask of you.”
The Ukrainian president flew 5,000 miles to improve his strained relationship with Washington lawmakers. On his last two trips they had practically carried him on their shoulders, hailing him as the great, courageous hope of democracy. But this time, in a series of meetings on Tuesday, Republican lawmakers brushed him off, shrugged that the romance was over, and then added the most old-fashioned of excuses: “It's not you, it's us.” .”
It was one of the most shameful episodes in a sordid political season – and it could have dangerous consequences around the world.
On its own, the cause of Ukrainian independence – which requires arming Ukrainian troops to repel the Russian invading army – enjoys broad, bipartisan support. But things have reached a bad moment. The troops are running out of ammunition. President Biden has asked Congress for $60 billion in additional emergency funding to keep it running. But Senate Republicans are telling him: We won't give you the money – we'll block the 60-vote majority needed to pass the additional funding – unless you let us pass a radical immigration bill that would America's southern border is virtually sealed off, making it almost impossible for migrants to apply for asylum.
Biden says he is willing to partially comply with Republican demands to tighten borders. But Republicans don't want compromise; They're calling for a Senate version of a bill the House passed earlier this year — a bill so extreme that it didn't receive a single Democratic vote. And they are ready to do so, even if it means the collapse of Ukraine's defenses against Russia.
A growing number of Republicans simply don't care about Ukraine and see this moment as an opportunity to put “America First,” as their leader Donald Trump would say. However, several Republicans, including Graham, care about Ukraine; they recognize the moral and strategic dimensions of war; They understand that the outcome is of great importance to U.S. security interests. And yet they have allowed their party's MAGA majority to jeopardize these interests.
“I told President Zelensky that this is where the problem lies,” Graham told reporters after a meeting Tuesday morning with a bipartisan group of senators. There is a “nightmare” at America’s southern border, exclaimed Graham. It's all Biden's fault, and he needs to fix this before Congress can spend another dime to help Ukraine.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, who also met with Zelensky, expressed the same unfounded concern. “We stand with him against Putin’s brutal invasion,” he told reporters. But any additional spending bill must first be about “our own national security” – that is, protecting US borders from migrants, not protecting Ukraine from Russian troops, tanks and missiles.
There are two ironies in this act of political blackmail. First, about two-thirds of the money Congress spends on Ukraine goes to U.S. defense manufacturers. In other words, this is largely not development aid; The majority of the money – along with many jobs – stays here at home.
Second, when Biden requested $61.4 billion more military aid for Ukraine, he also called for $13.6 billion to fund improvements to U.S. border security — mostly for more agents, but also for an expansion of Trump's border wall . It was an all-too-obvious strategy — an attempt to win the support of MAGA Republicans.
In some ways this may have been a tactical error; In any case, it backfired. When Republicans refused to pass more spending for Ukraine without even more drastic measures on U.S. border security, Biden could not blame them for linking a major foreign policy bill to an entirely separate, inappropriately contentious domestic issue. He had already connected the two.
Biden's plight is exacerbated by poor timing. Speaker Johnson has announced that the House of Representatives will definitely go on vacation at the end of this week and will not return until after the New Year. Even if the Senate somehow passes a compromise package, it would have to go to the House for approval and then to a House and Senate conference committee to reconcile any differences. In other words, there just isn't time to get this done.
Ukraine's defenses will not collapse immediately. There are still around $4 billion worth of weapons in the pipeline. And most European countries are also providing help. But even if everything turns out well in the end, Senate Republicans—by their shenanigans alone—have sent a clear message to friends and foes around the world: The United States is not a very reliable ally.
At a White House press conference with Zelensky on Tuesday, Biden noted that the Russian host of a Kremlin-run TV show said on television, “Well done, Republicans!” That's good for us.” Biden quoted that joke twice, then said, ” If you’re being celebrated by Russian propagandists, maybe it’s time to rethink what you’re doing.”
That's what makes Graham's complicity in this game – and that of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell – so appalling. They were enthusiastic supporters of aid to Ukraine. They know what kind of message their mischief sends. History books – the serious ones, the kind of history books they read from time to time – will treat them very unkindly.
In a harrowing but compelling interview in Politico, Fiona Hill — the Russia expert and former White House adviser who testified about then-President Trump's threat to Ukraine — laid out some of the possible consequences, not to mention the fall of Kiev. Putin will be encouraged. Eastern European countries may feel they need to strike deals to curb his expansion ambitions. America's credibility as an ally will be significantly diminished. NATO, which relies on US leadership, could fall apart. Chinese President Xi Jinping may be starting to think he can get away with invading or at least blockading Taiwan. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un could also take dangerous risks. Our Asian allies, particularly Japan and South Korea, may feel the need to protect their own security and therefore begin building nuclear bombs. (They have the technical know-how.) China could respond by accelerating its own nuclear buildup—and could deepen its alliance with North Korea, Russia, and (to better maximize America's isolation) Iran.
Fred Kaplan
Republicans are about to give Putin a big Christmas present
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This is not a paranoid fantasy. It's a perfectly plausible scenario. Many of the Republicans who are jeopardizing all this don't understand what they're doing – or don't care. The others – people like Graham and McConnell – should be ashamed of themselves.
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Biden is reportedly intensifying his efforts to reach an agreement with Senate Republicans. In the end, he may have to give in, reluctantly coming to the conclusion that he has no choice – that keeping Ukraine running is worth the price of an extreme, even inhumane border law. At the same time, however, he would have to ask himself whether enough of his democratic compatriots share his priorities. Even if he were willing to give in on immigration, that might not be the case.
In fact, it's a fair bet that many of the Republicans orchestrating this circus want nothing to come of these discussions. They want Biden and the Democrats to fail. They want to give the impression in the months before the 2024 election that Biden doesn't care about the record number of illegal border crossings – and that he lost Ukraine.
This is American politics in the 21st century, and regardless of what happens in Ukraine in the coming weeks, this alone could be reason enough for our power to wane and our allies to leave.
“The whole world is watching,” Biden said at his press conference on Tuesday, “so let’s show them who we are.” Right now, the self-portrait isn’t pretty.