The President of the Popular Party, Alberto Nuñez Feijóo, during a rally in Outeiro de Rei (Lugo) in support of the candidacy of Alfonso Rueda for the presidency of the Xunta.ÓSCAR CORRAL
The PP's surprising turnaround on the Catalan issue in the final stretch of the Galician election campaign has sparked all sorts of theories. The most widespread is controlled demolition. That by sending the message that it was ready to consider a conditional pardon for Carles Puigdemont, the party wanted to prepare the ground for the risk that the former Catalan president, who fled to Belgium, would carry out his threat: “That will everything.” be known. ¡â€ – and sweeping under the carpet the discreet talks that Junts had with the PP last August.
However, the party leadership source who provided this information to 16 journalists on Friday 9th – including EL PAÍ S – denied this theory to the popular leaders with whom he subsequently spoke. He told them that he had no intention of sending “any message to Junts or to anyone” and that it all boiled down to “talking to talk” in a relaxed atmosphere, according to one of them. Does not matter. As a result of the political furore caused by this breakdown, the February 18 elections in Galicia became a referendum on the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The leader of the PP must overcome the Ides of February, which has not boded well for the PP in the recent past.
Two years ago, on February 18, on which Galicians will vote, Pablo Casado made the fatal mistake that ended his political career. The then leader of the PP went to a friendly station that day, Cadena Cope, to make an accusation that eventually became his epitaph. Casado fired up his party partner and internal rival Isabel Díaz Ayuso, accusing her of making irregular contracts with his own brother in the middle of the pandemic. What happened next is history. The PP leader's dizzying defenestration was completed just five days later, on February 23, 2022, when the party barons decided until the early hours of the morning on Génova Street that Casado would resign from his command post and that the then President of Galicia , Alberto Núñez Feijóo, took the helm. Two years later, the Galician baron, on whom everyone hoped to save the party in these moments of fear, faces a test of survival.
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Feijóo himself seems to be aware that the PP's waters could be severely shaken if the party loses the Xunta de Galicia this Sunday. In the conversation with the 16 journalists that sparked the controversy, the source from the PP leadership left unanswered the “repeated” question about what would happen to the party if it lost Galicia. The leader knows he is risking it because several factors come together: that it is being tested in his country, a historic fiefdom of the PP; who was deeply involved in the campaign and insisted that it be carried out at national level. Added to this was last week's setback regarding Puigdemont's pardon, which had a significant impact on the expectations of his candidate Alfonso Rueda.
But what scenario would open up for the party if the PP lost power in Galicia? “It would be an element of important internal distortion, there would be a lot of doubts,” replies one of the most influential regional presidents within the formation. “It would be great for the PP,” he says, “but I don’t think Alberto will be forced to leave.”
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Other regional presidents of the PP from crucial areas in a hypothetical internal struggle believe that these elections are a match point (match point) for Feijóo after the fiasco of the parliamentary elections and, moreover, whatever the result will be, will have a bitter aftertaste. “The problem for Feijóo is that if he loses, a major crisis would break out; But if we retain power, we will actually remain the same.”
If the election fails, PP veterans expect an internal “mini-crisis” and “a questioning of Feijóo’s leadership,” but rule out a forced change to another leader. “If he didn't decide to leave,” analyzes a leader with responsibility in various phases, “there would certainly be a solidarity.” “We can't afford to open up again,” he emphasizes. This veteran points out as a key element that there is not even a clear alternative leadership to Feijóo. “We would come to a confrontation between the two souls with a fight between Isabel Díaz Ayuso and Juanma Moreno.” We rule in many places and we cannot afford to let down.
What he expects in the game is that Feijóo will be asked to make changes. And what no one can rule out in the event of a fiasco in Galicia is a delayed political death of the popular leader, combined with a dispute over the leadership for the candidacy for the next parliamentary elections. However, for this scenario to become a reality, according to the various sectors, consecutive electoral defeats and a strong democratic fall of the PP would be necessary.
For its part, the all-powerful Madrid PP of Isabel Díaz Ayuso – on which all eyes would be if Feijóo lost this Sunday – predicts that the party will resist in Galicia. The PP's strategists in Madrid claim that Rueda will win 40 seats (two more than the absolute majority) and that the failure of the conditional pardon for Puigdemont could lead to Vox's growth, but not an electoral disaster for the PP. This is so, they argue, because the People's Party's strength lies in rural elections and the debate over amnesty is “essentially an urban debate.” In the PP of Madrid they are now of the opinion that Feijóo, “who had already achieved rhythm and solvency, must now start all over again”.
Whatever happens this Sunday, the first to speak out will be Isabel Díaz Ayuso. The President of Madrid will appear at an informative breakfast that she has already planned for Monday 19th at 9:30 a.m. Just two years ago, before the Ides of February, she emerged victorious.
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