According to France 24, a European military source, the explosion that rocked Gaza’s Ahli Arab Hospital was due to a botched shot fired from the enclave.
Published on: October 20, 2023 – 5:31 p.m
5 minutes
Following the explosion that rocked the Ahli Arab hospital in central Gaza on Tuesday evening, October 17, Israeli authorities and Hamas are shifting responsibility. According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, at least “471 people” were killed, and according to American intelligence, between 100 and 300 people were killed. A European military source examined the various possible hypotheses and also challenged France 24 with the scenarios proposed by Hamas, taking into account the environment in which this attack took place, the weapons likely used and the damage observed on the ground.
According to this source, elements of which were supported by confidential information shared with other intelligence agencies, about 6,500 rockets were fired by Hamas and its allies as of October 17, compared to 5,000 to 6,000 Israeli attacks.
The satellite images collected show damage but no destruction in the area of the impact site.
This satellite photo taken on October 19, 2023 shows the aftermath of an October 17, 2023 attack on Al-Ahli Hospital and its surroundings in Gaza City. © AFP PHOTO – SATELLITE IMAGE 2023 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES
At the impact site, a “hole” was created that was one meter in diameter, 75 cm in diameter and 30 cm deep. We are talking about a rocket with a payload of approx. 5 kg, maximum 10 kg. At the bottom of the hole, a metallic object with a slant indicates a shot with a south-north orientation.
People inspect the area of Al-Ahli Hospital where Palestinians were killed in an explosion, October 18, 2023. © Portal – Mohammed Al-Masri
In the images observed the next day, several surrounding buildings and vehicles are intact, the windows are broken by the blast wave of the explosion or fire, but we do not see any gunshot residue (corresponding to the remains of a rocket or fire). “A rocket.” ).
The next day, France 24’s Info or Intoxication unit was able to analyze the images circulating on social networks.
Watch Gaza Hospital Explosion: What Do We Know?
According to the European military source, some of the scenarios considered seem unlikely due to the weapons used and the damage observed:
- An air-to-ground attack by an Israeli fighter jet or drone
The European source states that this hypothesis is actually excluded, since the Israeli army used charges of about 250 kg, which in this case would have left a huge crater and not a hole. Furthermore, this hypothesis, like that of a drone strike, is unlikely since there is no debris and we can see the funnel (end) of a missile in the hole.
- Hamas rocket fire intercepted
However, explains the same source, the interception never occurs during the firing phase, but in the sky in the middle of the flight path. In this configuration, the rocket explodes, dropping debris that could not have caused such damage.
The hypothesis that the explosion was due to an unintercepted missile would also be unthinkable, since the missiles are programmed to explode at a certain altitude before hitting the ground to prevent the debris from hitting the Israeli below meet civilian population. In this case too, the impact would have caused a huge crater.
The Israeli Iron Dome mobile air defense system. AFP
- Handling explosives
In this hypothesis, the European military source confirms that neither surveillance means nor satellite images can provide evidence that explosives were handled on site.
- A Hamas (or Islamic Jihad) rocket that has lost its trajectory
With a 10% margin of error, the explosion was likely caused by a rocket fired from Gaza. There is a correspondence between the dimensions of the hole and the damage caused by the explosion, as well as the rockets used by the Palestinian factions (about 107 mm with an explosive warhead of about 5 kg).
Rockets used by Palestinian factions © Graphic Studio France Médias Monde
Taking into account the information reported by this source, based on the size of the hole and the damage observed, the thesis of “471 deaths” becomes, on the one hand, very unlikely due to the environment – outdoors. , the force of the explosion loses power – and on the other hand the ratio of dead to injured, which is 1 to 4. Information that increases uncertainty about the number of dead and injured. These uncertainties are fueled by other gray areas, such as the speed with which the number of “471 dead” was announced and the few traces of life found at the site the next morning (hair, clothing, waste, etc.).