CNN –
A day after a deadly explosion rocked Gaza’s Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital and sparked protests across the region, the United States has released its own assessment of the cause of the devastation.
Israel has presented evidence that a misfire by the militant group Islamic Jihad caused the explosion, and US President Joe Biden backed that explanation on Wednesday, citing US intelligence. A National Security Council spokesman later said that analysis of aerial photos, intercepts and open source information suggested Israel was “not responsible.”
Palestinian officials and several Arab leaders nonetheless accused Israel of hitting the hospital as part of its ongoing airstrikes in Gaza. Islamic Jihad – a rival group to Hamas – denied responsibility.
The attack is believed to have killed hundreds of people, according to Gaza’s Hamas-controlled health ministry, and images of the bloody aftermath have sparked protests across the region.
Here’s a look at what we know so far – and what we don’t know.
Video of the moment of the explosion at Al-Alhi Baptist Hospital, geolocated by CNN, shows the sky lighting up as a large explosion erupts on the hospital grounds, sending a cloud of flames and smoke into the air.
There was panic in the building. Dr. Fadel Na’eem, head of the orthopedic department, said he was performing surgery when a deafening bang echoed through the hospital. He said panic broke out as staff ran into the operating room screaming for help and reporting several injuries.
In a recorded video, he told CNN: “I was just finishing an operation and suddenly we heard a big explosion. We thought it was outside the hospital because we never thought they would bomb the hospital.”
After leaving the theater, Dr. Na’eem, he found an overwhelming scene. “Many people were beheaded. There was a big fire everywhere,” he said. “The medical team scrambled to treat the wounded and dying, but the scale of the devastation was overwhelming. The number was so large that we can’t do anything.”
While it is difficult to independently confirm how many people died in the explosion, the bloodshed was visible in images of the aftermath shared on social media. Photos and videos show toddlers covered in dust rushing to treat their wounds. Other bodies lay lifeless on the ground.
According to the Ministry of Health in Gaza, the death toll is over 400.
What the Israelis and Palestinians said
Palestinian officials blamed Israel for Tuesday night’s attack.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Jonathan Conricus told CNN on Wednesday that the “first package of information” was “evidence that clearly supports the fact that it could not have been an Israeli bomb.”
Israel says its intelligence shows a “failed rocket launch” by the militant Islamist group Islamic Jihad was responsible. The Islamic Jihad Movement dismissed these claims as “false and baseless.”
The IDF also released audio recordings that it claimed captured a conversation between two Hamas operatives in which they spoke of a rocket being launched from a cemetery near the hospital. According to an IDF translation of the conversation, one of the suspected militants says: “They say that the shrapnel from the rocket is local shrapnel and not Israeli shrapnel.”
CNN cannot verify the authenticity of the recordings.
On Tuesday, the IDF presented images that it said prove that the destruction at the hospital could not have been the result of an airstrike. There are no visible signs of craters or significant damage to buildings that could result from such an attack.
A video posted Tuesday evening by the State of Israel’s official account on the social media platform However, the timestamp on the video did not appear to match the time of the explosion, and the tweet was later edited to remove the video.
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Haiat told CNN: “We received the video and thought it came from an official source, but when we contacted him he said he got it from somewhere else, so we removed it .”
On Wednesday, officials in Gaza also claimed that Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital was damaged by two Israeli shells four days ago, prompting the IDF to warn hospital management to evacuate the site. CNN has reached out to the IDF for comment on the claim.
According to the US National Security Council (NSC), the US government currently believes that Israel is “not responsible” for the explosion.
Biden, who made a major visit to Israel on Wednesday, told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the damage at the hospital “looks like it was done by the other team, not by you.”
“But there are a lot of people out there who aren’t sure, so we have a lot – we have a lot of things to overcome,” Biden added.
On Wednesday afternoon, the NSC further clarified its assessment: “Intelligence information indicates that some Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip believed that the explosion was likely caused by an erroneous rocket or missile launch by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).” The militants were still investigating “What had happened,” said spokeswoman Adrienne Watson.
Officials separately told CNN that initial evidence collected by U.S. intelligence suggests the attack on the hospital came from a missile fired by the Palestinian group Islamic Jihad.
The evidence includes an explosion analysis that suggests it was a ground explosion rather than an airstrike that hit the hospital, one of the sources said. There was no single crater to suggest it was a bomb, but there was significant fire damage and scattered debris, suggesting a ground-originated explosion, according to the source.
That analysis is one data point that led intelligence officials to believe the attack on the hospital was a failed missile launch.
Still, blast analysis is just one of the things being investigated by the intelligence community, which has led to an increase in intelligence collections in the region.
A number of countries have expressed horror at the loss of life in hospital and called for caution in assigning blame until the circumstances are clear.
The United Nations has called for a thorough investigation. Until independent investigators can assess the incident in detail, it is unlikely that the world will know for sure what led to the explosion.
Israel has provided the United States with information it collected related to the deadly Gaza hospital explosion, according to an Israeli official and another source familiar with the matter.
Several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, issued statements condemning Israel and accusing its military of bombing the hospital.
Meanwhile, thousands of protesters chanting anti-Israel slogans gathered in Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Egypt and Tunisia. Protests also rocked the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah.