Hundreds of people were killed after an explosion at a hospital in the Gaza Strip on October 17. Just over a week had passed since the Palestinian group Hamas carried out a terrorist attack against Israel that killed 1,400 people and prompted the country to declare war and begin bombing the territory.
Hamas, which controls Gaza, blamed the explosion on an Israeli airstrike.
Israel said it was caused by a misdirected rocket fired by another armed group, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, but denied that claim.
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden supported Israel’s position, citing “data provided to me by my Department of Defense.”
The various claims have not been independently verified. The New York Times is working to evaluate the various reports through an analysis of photos, video and other evidence, as well as on-site interviews.
This is what we know so far about the explosion at the Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City.
What do we know about the death toll?
US intelligence estimated that between 100 and 300 people were killed, US officials said on Thursday. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not say what intelligence led them to that estimate and warned that it could change.
On the night of the blast, Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry put the death toll at 500 or more, an estimate the ministry later changed to “hundreds.” No number could be independently confirmed, but images of the hospital and witness statements confirmed by the Times made it clear that the number was high.
Hours after the explosion, Mohammad Abu Selim, director of the nearby al-Shifa Hospital, said in an interview that between 150 and 200 people were killed and about 300 injured in the attack. He said he did not have an official count of the dead because of the terrible condition of many of the bodies.
The next morning, the Israeli army claimed that the death toll reported by Hamas was inflated. Gaza’s health ministry said later on Wednesday that 471 people had been killed and hundreds more injured. The figures could not be independently confirmed.
The hospital is run by the Anglican Church and overseen by Archbishop Hosam Naoum. He said that in recent days a large number of Gazans had sought refuge there to avoid Israeli airstrikes. According to the diocese’s website, the hospital typically has 80 beds.
What did the US government say?
National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said Wednesday that the U.S. government “believes Israel is not responsible for the explosion that killed hundreds of civilians yesterday at Al-Ahli Hospital in the Gaza Strip.”
“Our assessment is based on available information, including intelligence information, missile activity and open source videos and images of the incident,” he said, adding that the United States was still gathering information.
Watson said intelligence indicated that some Palestinian fighters in the Gaza Strip believed the explosion was likely caused by the irregular firing of a rocket by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. “The militants were still investigating what happened. “We continue to work to confirm whether the explosion was due to a failed Palestinian Islamic Jihad missile,” he said.
U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss classified information, said initial intelligence, including infrared satellite data, suggested the launch of a rocket or missile from Palestinian fighting positions in Gaza. They warned that the analysis was preliminary.
A senior Defense Department official said that based on data collected from infrared sensors, the United States was “pretty confident” that the launch did not come from Israeli forces.
What did Palestinian Islamic Jihad say?
Palestinian Islamic Jihad, whose members were involved in the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, denied that a faulty rocket from its arsenal caused the explosion.
In an interview with The Times on Wednesday, a spokesman for the group, Musab Al-Breim, said its weapons supply capabilities were “primitive.”
In a statement released on Tuesday, the group said video footage and the extent of the destruction showed the explosion was caused by an Israeli airstrike.
The group’s military wing posted a message on Telegram at 7:09 p.m. on the evening of the explosion saying it had fired a volley of rockets at Israel just minutes after the incident.
However, the spokesperson said the timing of posts does not always reflect the time of publication.
However, he acknowledged that faulty missiles from the military wing had killed Palestinians in the past. “We made mistakes, I won’t deny that,” he said. “But no errors of this magnitude.”
What did the Israeli army say?
Citing aerial photographs, photos taken after the explosion and footage purportedly from Hamas members, the Israeli military claimed on Wednesday that the explosion was caused by a failed Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s top spokesman, said the Palestinian group fired 10 rockets at 6:59 p.m. on the night of the explosion, and one of them fell prematurely, hitting a parking lot in front of the hospital.
He also denied that Israel fired artillery pieces in the hospital area at the time.
Hagari mentioned a photo of the parking lot published He said on social media Wednesday morning that it did not show the type of impact that an Israeli missile would have caused. The photo shows the effects of a fire – burned cars and scorched ground – that he says was caused by rocket fuel.
He also showed an aerial photo that he said was taken by a military drone at night and said there was no evidence of a crater there either. (U.S. intelligence determined there was only minor structural damage to the buildings and no impact craters to the hospital, U.S. officials said.)
A freelance videographer working for the Times visited the site the day after the explosion and filmed footage showing a small impact crater. Other images show the same thing, including the Israeli army’s aerial photo. It is not yet clear whether the crater is related to the explosion and whether any conclusions can be drawn from it.
Admiral Hagari rejected suggestions that the hit was caused by a faulty Israeli air defense interceptor; He stated that Israel does not fire anti-aircraft missiles into Gaza airspace.
The admiral played a recording of what he said was a wiretapped conversation between two Hamas members in which one of the interlocutors said the damage was caused by a rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad from a cemetery near the hospital. The Times is evaluating the material and has not verified the conversation.
What did Hamas say?
In a statement, Hamas said the explosion was “a terrible massacre” and “a crime of genocide” caused by an Israeli airstrike.
According to Gaza’s Ministry of Health and video footage confirmed by the Times, Ahli Arab Hospital had already been hit by rocket fire on October 14. The Anglican Church said in a statement that four staff members were injured in that explosion.
Yousef Abu al-Rish, a senior Gaza Health Ministry official, said at a news conference on Tuesday evening that the Israeli military had called the hospital director and told him that the earlier explosion had been a warning to evacuate.
On Wednesday, Archbishop Naoum said that the Israeli military had called hospital management at least three times in recent days and sent them a text message asking their patients and staff to leave the hospital premises.
Archbishop Naoum explained that the warnings were specific to the hospital and were not part of a broader campaign by Israel to encourage civilians to leave the northern Gaza Strip and move to the south of the territory.
“There were specific warnings to leave the building,” the archbishop said.
Lt. Col. Amnon Shefler, an Israeli army spokesman, said the calls to the hospital were part of a broader campaign to urge civilians to leave the northern Gaza Strip ahead of an expected Israeli invasion. Colonel Shefler explained that the hospital was not a military target.
Emma Bubola, Iyad Abuheweila, Aaron Boxerman, Patrick Kingsley, Christoph Koettl, Haley Willis, Yousur Al-Hlou and Peter Baker contributed reporting.