People living in conflict regions are also often on the front lines of the climate crisis because their countries are ill-prepared for these challenges due to their instability. This is the case in the Gaza Strip, which could soon be caught in a Gordian knot.
This is very similar to a double penalty. Countries at war are also among the most vulnerable to the climate crisis. Of the 25 countries most affected by climate change in 2021, according to the American University of Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Initiative, fourteen are currently experiencing armed conflict, including Yemen, Afghanistan, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
For good reason: when there is no direct link between climate change and conflict, countries at war are less able to deal with the effects of global warming because their ability to adapt is weakened by internal divisions or persistent violence.
Climate change can also lead to tensions over access to increasingly scarce resources.
“One problem exacerbates another,” says Yvonne Su, an international development expert and assistant professor at the University of York. “If a place is exposed to global warming, people may have to fight for resources.”
Also read: Is peace still possible after Hamas attacks in Israel?
As war returns to Gaza, experts say its population is more fragile than ever.
A report released in 2020 by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) showed that the cascading effects of war and global warming can have devastating consequences, particularly on land and resources. In an interview with the ICRC in February 2021, the organization’s former head of economic security programs, Ibrahima Bah, sheds light on “the case of the Central African Republic.” [qui] shows how the impacts of climate change and insecurity in neighboring countries and even beyond can impact communities living hundreds of kilometers away.
Instability in the Sahel and Lake Chad region has led many herders and farmers to move to the Central African Republic to find greener pastures for their livestock. But in a country that has been fragile for more than 60 years and where food insecurity is widespread, these displacements represent a new source of tension. Due to armed conflict in the region, herders no longer use the traditional migratory animal corridors and end up settling in the near villages or fields where they desire the same space and resources as the residents there. Even now. Authorities that have traditionally helped resolve conflicts are no longer intervening in certain areas for security reasons. Inevitably there were clashes.
Armed conflict and climate change are the biggest threats to food security
“We are seeing an increasing militarization of livestock farming, with the various armed groups that commit abuses becoming more involved because transhumance has become one of their sources of income,” explains Ibrahima Bah.
Somalia, one of the countries most affected by climate change, has experienced decades of conflict. These years of violence were compounded by a series of severe droughts, which placed additional pressure on the state-building process while leading to increasing population displacement.
In July 2023, the United Nations reported that more than 3.8 million people in Somalia are currently displaced due to conflict, drought and floods. According to a World Bank report, land disputes and litigation related to these mass displacements have heightened tensions. In central Somalia, for example, land occupation is a recurring problem. When they return, residents who have been displaced for a long time often find that their land is being occupied by others, leading to disputes.
According to the UN, armed conflict and climate change are the two biggest threats to food security. War can have devastating effects, especially when the countries involved are major raw material producers or exporters. Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe, accounted for about 15% of global wheat production before the Russian invasion. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 80% of global sunflower production. The war led to shortages of both products and contributed to global food price inflation.
I’ll repeat it again and this time not from the #UNSC but from the middle of the Sahel:
Armed violence is the main cause of food insecurity and the climate emergency prolongs existing tensions and maintains fragility: poor harvests, water shortages, intercommunal violence, etc. pic.twitter.com/8iiAhPAjAe
— Patrick Youssef (@PYoussefICRC) October 26, 2022
War can also have devastating effects on a country’s environment. According to the ICRC, more than 80% of conflicts take place in biodiversity hotspots, which are home to half of rare plants and species. Environmental degradation is a vicious cycle that not only contributes to global warming but also reduces the population’s ability to adapt to it. The expansion of industrial sites and the destruction of green spaces such as forests release significant amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere while limiting the planet’s ability to reabsorb them.
The situation in Gaza, “an example of an area that is really poor in resources,” recalls Yvonne Su. International organizations have been sounding the alarm for years, pointing to the severe lack of infrastructure, a problem that has existed since long before the war between Israel and Hamas. The Gaza Strip is only 41 km long and 10 km wide and is home to 2.2 million people. This makes it one of the most densely populated areas in the world. Residents regularly face shortages of food, water, electricity and health services.
But according to a June 2022 release from the Institute of Climate Change, Gaza is also experiencing rising temperatures, falling rainfall, rising sea levels and increasingly frequent extreme weather events, all caused by climate change. Tel Aviv University National Security Studies.
“The consequences of the conflict go beyond what we see”
In January 2022, severe flooding in Gaza damaged hundreds of buildings, crippled the entire sewage network and forced residents to evacuate their homes. If an extreme weather event were to hit the region now, with access to essential services impossible, the local population would not have the resources to cope.
“The ongoing occupation and blockade means that the people of Gaza have more limited resources than elsewhere. One coping strategy, for example, is to move in search of more fertile land or water, but this is not an option for Gazans,” explains Catherine -Lune Grayson, Humanitarian Policy Advisor at the ICRC, a specialist in issues related to climate change.
Even for the best-off countries, adapting to climate change requires major divisions at social, economic and cultural levels. But in wartime, authorities are too focused on security to have time to address the challenges of climate change.
See alsoFrance: the diplomacy of balance? Emmanuel Macron in the West Bank and Jordan
“The consequences of the conflict go beyond what we see, such as death and destruction of infrastructure. They impact the institutions themselves,” explains Catherine-Lune Grayson. “Basic services such as access to water, education and health centers may be destroyed, which will have an impact on the economy and therefore social cohesion, meaning we will end up with a weakened society less able to to respond to shocks.” even if climate-related shocks increase.”
The ICRC believes that the gap in climate protection financing between stable and fragile countries must also be taken into account. Although many states are among the most vulnerable, they do not receive enough financial support.
Also read: The concern of Gazans stuck in the West Bank: “I have no more news, it has been twelve days”
“The reason why climate finance hardly reaches conflict countries lies in the conflict itself. The institutions in these countries are not strong enough and are not able to easily manage or even request financial aid,” believes Catherine-Lune Grayson. “A country at war tends to focus exclusively – and this is quite normal – on restoring the security of its territory. There is no time to deal with the long-term impacts of climate risks.”
An additional protocol was added to the Geneva Conventions in 1977 to establish rules to ensure the protection of nature in times of war. International humanitarian law prohibits attacks on things that are vital to the survival of civilians, such as agricultural land and drinking water infrastructure.
The ICRC is currently working to strengthen Gaza’s resilience to current challenges. “For example, we are thinking about how we can ensure that a water point can continue to operate even if electricity production is affected,” says Catherine-Lune Grayson. “We need to strengthen resilience to shocks resulting from war, but also to shocks related to climate change.”
Article adapted from English by Romain Brunet. The original is available here.
