Santiago Abascal of the Vox party poses for photos before casting his vote during Spain’s general election July 23, 2023 in Pinar del Rey, on the outskirts of Madrid. Credit: THOMAS COEX/AFP via Getty Images
While the “Anglosphere” was rocked by an outbreak of populism in 2016, most European countries proved remarkably resilient. Longstanding unrest in the UK and US propelled Brexit and landed Donald Trump in the White House, but Europe, which at times seemed horrified across the Channel and across the Atlantic, seemed largely immune. Brussels fears a “Brexit domino effect”. In fact, the opposite happened.
In the five years from 2016, a new political party led by Emmanuel Macron emerged within French centrism, stifling the Front National. Angela Merkel’s resignation was accepted without populist fanfare and ensured a moderate successor. Mario Draghi, the quintessential technocrat, slipped smoothly from the European Central Bank to become Italy’s prime minister. Spain even went to the left.
There were outliers: Jaroslaw Kaczynski in Poland and Viktor Orban in Hungary continued to shape their nations along the lines of their populist parties. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) rose to third place in the 2017 federal election. Billionaire tycoon Andrej Babis came to power that same year, but told CNN at the time that he looked more like Czech Michael Bloomberg than Czech Donald Trump. The history of this period was the so-called populist “wave,” which peaked early and barely spread. Voters in European countries largely followed suit.
Today, however, this cohesion no longer exists. The far right is on the rise across the continent. Italy’s government under Giorgia Meloni is further to the right than at any time since Mussolini’s government. The AfD recently won a district election for the first time, and more victories are to follow. In France, the ongoing threat of a Marine Le Pen presidency grows with every protest against the Macron government, be it over police violence or pension reforms. Far-right parties support coalitions in Finland and Sweden. Neo-Nazi groups are growing in Austria.
And in Spain, the centre-left coalition seems to be breaking up after this weekend’s election, paving the way for the far-right Vox party to enter government as part of a coalition for the first time.
Why has Europe largely avoided the kind of populism that took hold in the US and UK in 2016? And why are populist parties moving more and more into the mainstream across the continent?
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