Putin matters Gerasimov. According to various sources, the chief of staff of the Russian armed forces (and one of the three who share a nuclear law with Putin and Shoigu) arrived in Izyum in the past few hours to personally oversee operations there Donbass. A decision that is of great importance in the conflict, especially since it comes three weeks after the appointment of General Oleksandr Dvornikov as sole commander of Russian troops in Ukraine. A step that, however, did not improve the leadership and coordination of the crew units on site. Dvornikov, a decorated veteran in charge of Russian forces in Syria, which used cluster bombs and thermobaric missiles extensively, and commander of Russia’s southern military district bordering the Donbass, had been tasked with creating unified vertical command and efficiency and improve coherence of actions of Russian units.
USA-Russia, secret maps on the new Ukrainian borders: Crimea and all Donbass would go to Moscow
The new role of Gerasimov
The general Gerasimov He has been chief of staff of the Russian Armed Forces since 2012, when Putin singled him out for such a delicate role. But why should the commander-in-chief of the Russian army take on a more operational role? If the decision were upheld, it would be a very significant intervention, likely to be guided by the same Putin, which could also lead to a change in the planning and implementation of Russian strategy. “It is very unusual for a nation’s senior military leader to ‘step down’ and assume operational command. It is an indicator that Putin is running out of options for his operation in Ukraine,” said former Australian general and analyst Mick Ryan.
64 days have passed since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Today, an exploration of the implications of Gerasimov’s “takeover” of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 1/20 pic.twitter.com/tplMmf00ez
— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) April 29, 2022
The strategic and operational implications
But what could be the strategic and operational implications of the operation? Gerasimov has led the Russian army in the reforms of the past decade. He commands the day-to-day management of the entire army, including the strategic forces. So it’s not a position that can remain vacant for long. But if Gerasimov will be transferred to Ukraine, which will monitor them Russian military operations rather short-term, like popular mobilizations? And most importantly: will the results of the military improve? Despite the status, in reality – explains Mick Ryan, the performance of the Russian army, which he himself oversees, was quite poor. And not just on the battlefield, but also at a strategic level: “Destruction of cities, attacks on civilians, torture, murder, all signs of corrupt professional ethics: Gerasimov is responsible for all of this,” says the analyst.
Gerasimov, the “theoretical” general sent to Donbass by Putin: How the strategy (and Dvornikov’s role) is changing https://t.co/y1Ypse68JI
– The Messenger (@ilmessaggeroit) April 29, 2022
Putin’s perspective
for Putin Is it a loss of trust in him or vice versa? “During World War II, General MacArthur appointed AU Army General Robert Eichelberger to command US forces at Buna,” says Ryan. Prior to his departure, Eichelberger was told, “Bob, I want you to take Buna or you won’t come back alive.” Did Gerasimov receive a similar instruction from Putin? Or did he and Defense Minister Shoigu blame Gerasimov for every Russian failure in the war? What is certain is that if Gerasimov’s appointment were genuine, it will cast a new light on Dvornikov’s latest. Because from an operational point of view, Gerasimov could be the joint general commander, with Dvornikov who would assume the role of commander of the terrestrial component. “Maybe Dvornikov didn’t prove to be the competent joint commander the Russians were hoping for, or he didn’t meet the strategic timelines for success,” says Ryan.
What changes now with the “theoretical” general
Gerasimov is known as a military theorist. Despite the fact that his ideas have yet to prove themselves on the battlefield in Ukraine, Gerasimov It could bring a better level of planning and execution to Russian operations. “To do that – Ryan explains – he would need a planning staff, about two command vehicles, an aide and a secure satellite phone if he really wants to command the operations.” great generals in two places: the place of greatest danger and the place of greatest opportunity. What in the case of Donbass, coincide. Because another defeat in eastern Ukraine would be a very hard blow for Putin, also on a political level. But that’s still the only place where the Russia has a chance for a real operational breakthrough, because if successful, it could announce to the Russian people, as well as to the whole world, that the operation in Ukraine is over. “Gerasimov was until recently considered one of the best Russian theorists of modern times – explains Ryan -. However, his reforms did not lead to success on the battlefield. His presence on the battlefield, commanded by a tactically mediocre Russian force, is unlikely to change that.”
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED