For days, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Lindner and Economy Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) have been trying to agree a framework for the 2024 budget in confidential talks. Green Party leader Ricarda Lang said in an interview with Radio Bávara (BR) on Wednesday morning: “I do not assume that a new draft budget will be decided in the cabinet today, but that a political decision will follow very, very shortly. ”
It was recently said in Budget Committee circles that, theoretically, a resolution by the end of the week could still be sufficient using the circular process – if the government were given shorter deadlines. Either way, there would be a lot of time pressure in this scenario. Depending on the extent of the changes to the 2024 draft budget, it is said that hearings, review time, perhaps even summoning individual ministers and meetings with representatives from particularly affected departments would be necessary.
picturedesk.com/dpa/Bernd von Jutrczenka The agreement desired by the “traffic light coalition” on the 2024 budget by Wednesday has failed
Preliminary budget may come into play
Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit was less optimistic than Lang, but said on Wednesday he was “certain” that a cabinet decision would be made before the turn of the year. A formal decision in the Bundestag will probably only be possible next year, from mid-January. In this case, a provisional budget would initially be applied at the beginning of January, and only necessary expenditure would be allowed. However, the situation could then evolve into a real government crisis. However, taking into account current poll numbers, none of the three parties would benefit from a coalition collapse.
At its core, the budget dispute is about the question of whether the debt brake enshrined in the Basic Law should be lifted again due to an emergency. The SPD and the Greens want this, the FDP rejects it. Last week, the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe declared unconstitutional the reallocation of credit authorizations to deal with the CoV crisis to a fund to support economic transformation – and thus largely eliminated the government’s practice of taking on public debt outside the regular scope. budget and therefore the debt brake to get around.
There is a risk of a budget hole of 17 billion euros
Finance Minister Lindner estimates the budget gap for next year at 17 billion euros. It arises, among other things, from the judgment and the effects on various special funds financed by loans. Elsewhere in the coalition there is talk of even larger sums, which is why the SPD and the Greens want to lift the debt brake again in favor of increased investment.
The positions of the coalition parties are far apart
The Greens call for the creation of a new special fund for investments in climate protection. The FDP wants to make savings especially in the social sector – the largest item in the federal budget. However, it is considered unlikely that this will apply just before the SPD party conference.
In an interview with the ARD capital studio, Lindner criticized the “appetite” for increasing amounts of money: “We have enough money. We just have to use the money we have better.” He rejected calls for tax increases and rule changes to curb debt.