In the first year of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow sought to capitalize on fears that Europe would run out of energy during the cold winter months. To stoke these fears, the Russians even made a short video telling how the Germans would freeze without supplies from Russia’s Gazprom.
The Russian state-owned company stopped all gas deliveries to Germany at the end of August 2022. But according to a current study commissioned by the Federal Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), only 14% of Germans surveyed believe that the coming winter could bring delivery bottlenecks.
This autumn, 64% of Germans expect to survive the winter without any major problems – even if the supply situation remains patchy. In fact, 18% consider the situation to be quite comfortable and are convinced that Germany will get through the winter without any problems. Only 4% were undecided.
This means that “four out of five participants surveyed believed that Germany was well prepared for the upcoming winter,” reported the BDEW.
Is Putin’s war accelerating the energy transition?
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“Thanks to the good cooperation between the energy industry and politics on the issue of security of supply over the past year and a half, we can now look relatively optimistically about the supply situation this winter,” said BDEW Managing Director Kerstin Andreae.
Klaus Müller, President of the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA), the German regulator for electricity, gas and telecommunications, also said that the country was in a much better position this winter. He noted that German gas storage facilities were full on November 5 and gas imports remained stable.
Müller’s rosy forecasts are based on six new scenarios that model Germany’s gas supply in the coming months. The BNetzA presented these models at the beginning of November, only two of the scenarios give cause for concern.
Germans should “continue to think carefully about energy consumption.”
According to the BnetzA, if the winter remains moderately cold, there is hardly any risk of supply bottlenecks. However, this could change if temperatures drop significantly, as they did in winter 2012.
Another challenge could be Russia completely halting gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine later this month. This would force Germany, which currently has the largest gas storage capacity in the EU, to increase its gas exports to Austria and southeastern Europe.
How does gas storage work?
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A final problem predicted by BnetzA is that Germany is unable to import sufficient liquefied natural gas through terminals in Belgium and the Netherlands. This would be the case if domestic consumption in these neighboring countries increased due to lower temperatures.
Nevertheless, Müller recommended that the Germans use energy sparingly. “No one should freeze, but we ask people to continue to think carefully about how they can reduce their consumption,” he said. Using less gas would also save money, he added. The average German household saved about €440 ($472) between October 2022 and September 2023 by using less gas.
Germany and nuclear power – a love-hate relationship
Nuclear power is celebrated, condemned and banned in Germany. When energy imports from Russia ended, many called for a comeback. Here’s a look at the story of a love-hate relationship.
Image: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa/picture Alliance
It all started with an “egg”
In October 1957, Germany’s first nuclear reactor went online in Garching near Munich. Because of its shape, it was nicknamed the “atomic egg” and belonged to the Technical University of Munich. It was a milestone in nuclear research and a symbol of a new beginning after the Second World War. In 1961, Germany began producing energy for civilian purposes. Nuclear energy was considered safe and secure.
Image: Heinz-Jürgen Göttert/dpa/picture-alliance
In the 1970s, opponents of nuclear energy questioned the cleanliness of nuclear energy because there was no safe storage of spent fuel. There were clashes with police during a demonstration against the Brokdorf nuclear power plant in the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein. “Nuclear energy? No thanks,” became the motto of German environmentalists.
Image: Klaus Rose/imago images
‘Nuclear energy? No thanks’
The danger of nuclear power soon became a reality. On March 28, 1979, a serious accident occurred at the Three Mile Island plant in the US state of Pennsylvania. And on April 26, 1986, a reactor exploded at the plant near Chernobyl in Soviet Ukraine – causing an unprecedented nuclear disaster. A radioactive cloud spread over Europe. It was a turning point for Germany, with Rotests gaining momentum.
Image: Tim Brakemeier/dpa/picture-alliance
In 1980, a new party was founded in West Germany: the Greens. Its members were a mix of leftists, peace activists, environmentalists – and, in an important group, nuclear opponents. The party entered the Bundestag in 1983. Meanwhile, the Chernobyl accident led to the creation of an environment ministry in Germany.
Image: AP/Picture Alliance
Wackersdorf: tragedy and triumph
The Bavarian town of Wackersdorf was supposed to get a reprocessing plant for spent nuclear fuel rods, but riots broke out in protest. Several protesters and officers were killed and hundreds more people were injured. Construction stopped in 1989. The German environmental movement achieved its first major victory – dampened by the tragedy of lost lives.
Image: Istvan Bajzat/dpa/picture Alliance
Gorleben: Radioactive waste in a salt mine
Meanwhile, in the north, the Lower Saxony town of Gorleben became a symbol of the fight against nuclear waste. The salt dome there was selected as an interim storage facility for nuclear waste. But as early as 1977, a large-scale study showed that groundwater was seeping in and corroding the barrels containing the waste. Of course, this posed a great risk of radioactive contamination.
Image: BREUEL-BILD/picture Alliance
Germany’s exit from nuclear energy was marked by setbacks. The center-left coalition of the SPD and the Greens under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder planned to phase out nuclear energy in an agreement with large energy companies in 2001. An individual term has been set for all 19 German nuclear power plants, with the last one obliged to be decommissioned by 2021.
Image: picture alliance
Roll back – then roll back the rollback
In 2010, the center-right government under Chancellor Angela Merkel terminated the agreement and decided to extend the life of German nuclear power plants. But after the nuclear disaster at the Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima in 2011, Merkel abruptly announced the end of the German nuclear age. In July 2011, the Bundestag voted to shut down all nuclear reactors by December 31, 2022.
Image: Michael Kappeler /dpa/picture Alliance
We celebrate the end of nuclear energy in Germany
After years of particularly intense protest, activists in the German cities of Grohnde, Gundremmingen and Brokdorf celebrated when the power plants there were shut down at the end of 2021. But the search for a safe waste storage facility continues. By 2031, the nationwide location for a geologically suitable safe location for highly radioactive waste should be identified.
Image: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa/picture Alliance
Should we stay or go?
In response to energy shortages due to the war in Ukraine, calls have become louder to extend the life of Germany’s remaining three nuclear power plants. Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck (right) reluctantly agreed to put two of them on call until mid-April. But FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner advocated extending the life of all remaining power plants until well into 2024.
Image: Michael Kappeler/picture Alliance/dpa
The Chancellor orders an extension
The dispute between the FDP and the Greens became a test for the German government coalition when Chancellor Olaf Scholz finally exercised his authority to give instructions. In a letter to the Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs and the Environment, he announced his decision: The three remaining nuclear power plants should continue to operate until April 15, 2023. Parliament can change the law.
Image: Markus Schreiber/AP Photo/Picture Alliance
Exit complete…or is it?
When the last three reactors were shut down on April 15, 2023, reactions were mixed. Proponents of nuclear energy argue that it could help Germany reach its goal of carbon neutrality by 2045. And two thirds of the Germans surveyed were in favor of extending the lifespan of nuclear reactors. That’s why Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder announced that he would look for a way to continue operating the Isar 2 power plant.
Image: :Bavarian State Chancellery via SVEN SIMON/IMAGO
In summary, if there is a shortage of gasoline in Germany this winter, it will not be until February. But for that to happen, several other things have to happen at the same time.
Firstly, the coming winter would have to be particularly cold. Second, households and industries would maintain a high rate of consumption. Third, Russia would stop gas supplies via Ukraine in November. Fourth, Germany would be forced to export significant quantities of its deposits to southern Europe. And fifth, gas imports from Belgian and Dutch gas terminals would decrease significantly.
Of course, such a scenario cannot be ruled out. However, experts say it’s highly unlikely that all of these things will happen at once.
This article was originally written in German.