Berlin Yes to tailormade sanctions, no to selfdamaging sanctions. If the federal government imposes a gas import ban, it will initiate Germany’s deindustrialization, a risk that the world’s fourthlargest economy cannot afford. With a joint statement to the dpa agency, Rainer Dulger and Rainer Hoffmann, the presidents of the Federal Association of German Employers (Bda) and the German Trade Union Confederation (Dgb), sounded the alarm. According to companies and employees, the sanctions imposed on Russia because of the invasion of Ukraine must be targeted, put pressure on the recipient and prevent damage to their own economy as much as possible. “An immediate gas embargo would lead to production declines, production shutdowns, further deindustrialization and sustained job losses,” the statement warns. “In the coming months we will still have many problems to solve. We cannot act from a position of weakness ».
The BDI, the German counterpart of Confindustria, had already illustrated the resistance of German industry to an energy embargo against Moscow, according to which the gas embargo was “an own goal because, unlike coal, gas cannot be replaced by other supplies on the world market, and it is impossible to replace Russian gas imports overnight ». What is making the headlines now is the support of all unions for the bosses’ positions. On the other hand, steel mills and heavy industry in general would be hit the hardest by a Moscow gas halt.
Today, methane accounts for 26% of the composition of Germany’s energy needs and part of the import is intended for the functioning of the industry: Shutting down the plants would be very expensive industrially, but also very expensive for the German state, which would be asked to provide workers, who stayed at home in the warmth to pay the equivalent of the layoffs. In the event of a fuel shortage, what is available would primarily be used to heat private households and hospitals. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has already made it clear that it is against a total embargo on gas imports.
Like Italy, Germany is in a race to diversify its sources of supply. And if Mario Draghi has started a tour of the nonEuropean capitals Rome wants to get more gas from, Scholz has placed the order to build three regasifiers on the North Sea coast, but Germany still won’t be able to turn its back on Russia for gas before the end of 2024. The regasification terminals have a maximum capacity of about 10 billion cubic meters per year and only the implementation of all three can replace what Berlin is buying from Moscow. The Scholz government has already capped imports of Russian gas, which now covers 40% of national needs, up from 50% at the end of February.
The ViceChancellor of the ÖkoParty, Robert Habeck, turned to the Germans and called for energy saving via the Funke Group media: turn down the cooler by one degree and, above all, “if you use the bicycle or the train at Easter instead of the car know that you will do well: you will save the use of your wallet and you will annoy Putin ». For Habeck, business chief and author of the emergency plan that alarmed the industrial world, living greener can help: “I believe that a 10% saving on consumption is always possible.” But there is a limit that not even the federal government can break , without jeopardizing prosperity and stability.