The French choice deviates from the script. It should be a predictable remake. It has become a thriller. It could end up being a horror story.
A month ago, Emmanuel Macron appeared certain to be the first French president to win a second term in 20 years. After Russia invaded Ukraine, his poll numbers soared. He built a 12-point lead in a likely second-round match-up with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and a 15-point lead over all other candidates in the first round.
But with that first round taking place on Sunday, Macron’s lead is all but gone. In the most recent polls, he is only two to five points ahead of Le Pen in round one, and two to eight points ahead of her in the two-candidate runoff on April 24.
Most French political scientists believe Macron will still prevail. Le Pen has magically eluded reckoning for her long years as a Vladimir Putin sympathizer. In the second round of French elections, the candidates’ presidential elections will be subjected to a greater stress test than in the first multi-candidate round.
Le Pen’s economic program is an incoherent mess. Her European policy is frexit by stealth – unilaterally cutting payments to the EU budget and flouting EU laws she doesn’t like. She also wants to ban all Muslim women from wearing veils in public – not just the burqa, which was banned in 2010. It plans to discriminate against foreigners, including EU citizens, in terms of eligibility.
France is an angry country. It’s always an angry country. She is particularly angry at the moment because the Ukraine war has pushed up already high petrol, diesel and food prices. But there is no real appetite in France for confrontational politics that would destroy an 80-year post-war political consensus of outward-looking tolerance and European unity.
So Le Pen can’t win. Can she?
Probably not. And yet opinion polls suggest she could win if enough left-wing voters stay home in the second round and refuse to choose between Macron (“the president of the rich”) and a seemingly “kinder, gentler” Le Pen. Just.
Having documented every French presidential election since 1986 and elections in five other countries, I can think of no parallel for such a late collapse of the putative favorite’s position. What on earth happened?
In truth, Macron’s support has not collapsed. It now averages 27% – three points higher than for most of last year. When the war in Ukraine began, it briefly rose to 31% as people from the softer left and softer right rallied around the flag and the centrist president.
Likewise, there has been no dramatic increase in support for the far right. Le Pen’s ultra-nationalist rival, Eric Zemmour, was crushed by his own longtime ally of Putin’s campaign. Le Pen’s meteoric rise in the first-round polls mirrors Zemmour’s decline since invading Ukraine.
In mid-February they were both around 16%. It’s now at 22-24% while Zemmour is down at 8-10%. It is one of the great oddities of the campaign that Zemmour paid dearly for his Putin idolatry, but Le Pen – an even more enthusiastic Muscovite – did not.
Zemmour’s racial and Islamic extremism allowed Le Pen to present herself as a mainstream politician close to ordinary people. She recognized early on the opportunities offered by low wages and high prices. Since the invasion of Ukraine, she has reaped electoral advantages by linking Russian sanctions – which she disapproves – to the cost of living.
Also, the shift in the second-round opinion polls isn’t quite as dramatic as it seems — but potentially more significant. Macron’s average runoff lead over Le Pen over the past six months has been 12 points, 56% to 44%. Several polls now put her within two to four points. Politico’s poll, which was a very accurate benchmark in 2017, gives Macron a six-point lead (but falling) at 53% to 47%.
There are two main reasons why the predicted result is so much closer than it was when Macron beat Le Pen by 66% to 34%. First, many more leftists say they will stay home this time. Second, Macron is no longer an upstart, a revolutionary in a suit; he is the incumbent.
It is an iron rule of French politics that incumbent presidents are detested. The second ballot of 2017 was a referendum against the extreme right; This could turn into a referendum against Macron.
Does Macron deserve to be so loathed? No he does not. He made a lot of mistakes. He seemed arrogant or distant at times. He failed to construct a convincing success story during his tenure and during a late campaign, distracted by the Ukraine war.
When he finally began campaigning, he voted what now looks like a brave (or foolish) vote to propose raising France’s standard retirement age from 62 to 65.
And yet Macron has much to boast about. He has brought French unemployment down to 7.4%, its lowest level in 13 years. France has weathered Covid better than many other comparable countries thanks to huge government support for individuals and businesses. His ideas and energy revived the European Union as a thinker in world affairs, not as an immovable, inward-looking bloc.
He can still win the election. But it will be a scary two weeks for anyone concerned about the well-being of France or Europe.