Eight days ago, at the Winter Meetings, I was told that Shohei Ohtani was not a fan of San Francisco. Not the organization, but the city. I still don't know if that means someone close to them watches too much cable news, is deathly afraid of sea lions, or is allergic to fog and/or Huey Lewis. But it was brought to my attention by someone I trust, and I suspect that Buster Posey was aware of this skepticism about San Francisco, which is why it was expressed in his conversation with Andrew Baggarly.
A player's perception of a city – whether right or wrong – can absolutely make a difference in their decision. Let's be very clear. Geography matters when it comes to where you want to spend the next decade. For a person with certain prejudices or opinions, it is important.
On July 4, 2016, Kevin Durant signed with the Golden State Warriors. The franchise was still playing in Oakland when the murder rate in the US was in the top 25 and the bad reputation of being in the top 5 worldwide. I loved Oakland then, and I love it now, but the city's national reputation has always been shaky. Never forget the nationally televised games in Oakland that included views of the Golden Gate Bridge or cable cars.
A player's perception of a city – whether right or wrong – can absolutely make a difference in their decision. But it's far more likely that a player will say, “Wait a minute, let me count the zeros on this piece of paper before I sign it” or “Holy goodness, this team has a lot of good players and I want to win with them.” .” When it comes to recruiting free agents in general, the city is low on the list of criteria a player would use to make his decision.
I've been driving through Danville, Burlingame, Cow Hollow, Inner Sunset, Outer Sunset and Lower Haight over the last few days and wish someone would pay me several million dollars to live in one of these places. I would live in this apartment in Milwaukee from April to October if you paid me millions of dollars and said I could write with Jon Bois, Ed Yong and Allie Brosh. I would have a lot of fun getting to know the city. I was sitting on the porch of this house in Kansas City smoking a pipe while someone in a limo brought me burnt ends from Joe's. The first time I went to Cleveland I dug it. I like cities! They are all neat. I'd even live in Los Angeles, if you can believe it.
So if Ohtani is disgusted by the idea of clam chowder being served in bread bowls, that's fine. He is free to make the decisions that are best for him as an individual. But when it comes to the problems the Giants have had attracting free agents, the city thing doesn't sit in my favor. Jung Hoo Lee received from the Giants the largest free agent contract for a position player since 1992 and the second largest contract for a Giants player, behind only Johnny Cueto. This is not a team that spends heavily on free agents. That's never been the case, at least not for players not named Barry.
Let's talk about the opportunities the Giants have actually missed since landing their last Barry.
Ohtani and Aaron Judge don't count. Carlos Correa doesn't count. I believe these were all good faith efforts. But two of those attempts came too late in the Giants' winning cycle for players they couldn't possibly convince to sign, and one of them was medically sensitive.
Damn, we don't just have to talk about them. Let's rank the missed opportunities in the Giants' recent free agent history.
He doesn't actually count as a free agent, and I dedicated an entire article to that decision, which we don't need to rehash here. I don't want to say “I told you so,” but I definitely told you so in September 2020 and May 2021. The Giants had a top rotation starter who wanted to stay. His contract will be about a third of what Yoshinobu Yamamoto will get. Don't think about it too much.
In hindsight, breaking the bank to sign Gerrit Cole would have been a smart move. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Sorry for the redundancy, and I apologize for the redundancy, but making funny and/or cute baseball moves is always the right thing to do. The Twins should have taken Tyler Rogers in the Rule 5 draft to give them literal twins. The Giants should have drafted Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton with the compensatory draft pick they had for backup Mike Stanton. The Giants should definitely trade Trevor Rogers just to mess with Duane Kuiper.
The Giants had the opportunity to sign Brandon Crawford's brother-in-law but turned it down. I don’t want to say “I told you so,” but I definitely told you so. 2019 was about taking a proactive leap into the Giants' next identity. He would have helped the Giants reach the postseason in 2020 and he would have helped them beat the Dodgers in 2021. Unless he opts out of his contract next year, which he likely will, he will essentially be playing for a five-year, $180 million contract over the next five seasons.
Would you sign Gerrit Cole to a five-year, $180 million deal now? Yes. Yes you would.
Funny and/or cute baseball moves are ALWAYS the way to go. Come on. You don't need another example. It was hilarious to re-sign Travis Ishikawa to the outfield. Making Conor Gillaspie the bench brawler was hilarious. The Giants had a chance to re-sign Pablo Sandoval for no apparent reason and they did it. That's why his home run in Game 162 is the reason the Giants brought in Corbin Burnes in a package that included Joey Bart.
The signing of the lost candidate, who was traded for Carlos Beltrán, was a given. It was funny. But it also made sense to play baseball. I don’t want to say “I told you so,” but I definitely told you so.
Cole or Wheeler with the Giants would solve a lot of problems now. Many problems. Is the lesson that a team should always throw hundreds of millions at free-agent pitchers? Heavens no.
But the clear Cy Youngs (Cole) or the potential Cy Youngs that cost a third of the price (Wheeler) are usually worth the risk. The Giants would have scored on this very lottery drawing. They're sorry they didn't play. An additional $20 million would have helped him forget about San Francisco's problems and fulfilled his destiny as an extremely amusing Giants acquisition, especially since it was an extremely frustrating Giants transaction.
Thirteen years, $330 million. Seemed ridiculous to me at the time. The Phillies still owe him $208 million over the next eight years. Would you sign Harper to such a contract today?
Ah, you would. He was just 26 years old when he signed his contract. I'm sure the Giants did their best, and I'm sure Harper wasn't sure how his left-handed power would play out at Oracle Park, but he probably would have signed if the Giants had swooped in and said would have: “You. We pay more for you than any other team. The nerds in the back made a $/WAR forecast for you, and we tore it apart. Fourteen years, $370 million. The Phillies didn't even hit .500 last year, and their manager is Gabe Kapler, who certainly won't be our manager any time soon. Come on, just take the deal.”
There was a way for the Giants to get involved in this deal. Scott Boras was the agent. He's good at convincing teams and he's also good at convincing customers. There was a way to get over it.
The lesson? Get stupid with free agents in their mid-20s on their way to the Hall of Fame, even if Boras is their agent. There aren't many of those around, so maybe it's not the, ohhhh, helllllloooooooo Juan Soto.
The addition of Mookie Betts would have made the Giants' world better. Keeping Mookie Betts away from the Dodgers would have been the icing on the ice. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
2. Trade for Mookie Betts and extend him
This was the trade that made me realize that “years” was a feature, not a bug. Trading an impending free-agent superstar isn't just a guarantee that you'll get his services for a season. It's a guarantee that you can show him around and sell him the whole experience as if you had stolen one of the Glengarry tracks.
At the time, I was worried that the Giants might trade Joey Bart, Seth Corry and Hunter Bishop for a rental player. Tell me how this has worked out so far. I have since changed my mind about trading young, MVP-caliber, truly transformational players who might sign contract extensions. Even if Juan Soto won't re-sign with the Yankees before hitting the open market, he'll at least get a chance to see if he likes the place. That's just as valuable as any second-round pick, if not a first-round pick.
1. Something, anything after the 2021 season
The. This was the time to strike. The Giants were hot, baby. They had juice. They were back and they were on the rise. They were the story of the 2021 regular season.
Carlos Rodón was an excited addition, but if the team wanted a superstar, this was the offseason to get excited about one. Once the Braves fumbled the Freddie Freeman pocket, the Giants should have been anywhere. Honorable Mention: Kevin Gausman may make a cameo appearance here, and it's worth noting that every MLB Trade Rumors prediction suggested the Giants would sign him (because it was the right thing to do). Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were available, and both still appear to be pitchers who could help the Giants in 2024. The Rangers just won a World Series with the help of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, even if they didn't get much help from Jacob deGrom.
This was the time for a superstar. Not now that people are fully aware that they're a bunch of slow 30-somethings with a solid OBP and the ability to hit between 10 and 20 home runs while playing questionable defense.
Of course, Javier Báez signed a disaster contract this offseason. If you want to trade Mitch Haniger for him, it's a done deal. This offseason, the Red Sox signed Trevor Story, and they are not very active on the market this offseason, which is probably no coincidence. Carlos Correa was a free agent (the first time around) and it turns out his ankles are weird. Most free agents are a mess and you should avoid them unless they are in their mid-20s and on their way to the Hall of Fame.
Still, the Giants' lack of vision and boldness in their approach to free agency, particularly when it comes to elite players, is much, much, much more important than anyone's opinion of San Francisco itself. The Giants didn't have the momentum with their roster, and they definitely didn't offer the most money.
So to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, if you're reading this, which you definitely are: The Giants are going to offer you big money to make up for all of this. Take it. Take it and create a rivalry that spans the Pacific Ocean and the US and will tear apart Kyoto's elementary schools. The Giants are sorry for the past. You understand it now. They won't snoop again. And they won't worry about 2033 because they're afraid of 2024 like the rest of us.
It would go a long way toward making up for the missteps of the past when the Giants didn't feel the need to acquire top-notch free agents. It wasn't a great strategy and it will take a lot to make up for that.
(Top photo of Freeman: John Hefti / USA Today)