According to a new report, there has been no sign of a decline in global carbon emissions this year.
We are releasing record levels of the greenhouse gas that urgently needs to be curbed if we are to limit warming to 1.3°F (1.5°C).
This limit was one of the goals of the Paris Agreement and if our current emission levels remain, there is a 50 percent chance that it will be exceeded in nine years.
These stark warnings can be found in the annual Global Carbon Budget Report, prepared by over 100 international scientists.
It provides a detailed summary of the amounts of carbon dioxide emitted by human activities and forecasts year-end totals.
“This year we see a further increase in global fossil CO2 emissions when we need a rapid decrease,” said University of Exeter Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study.
We are currently publishing record levels of carbon dioxide emissions that urgently need to be curbed if we are to limit warming to 1.3°F (1.5°C) above pre-industrial temperatures
Land-use changes such as deforestation are expected to be responsible for 3.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide this year. Pictured: Deforested land in the Amazon rainforest
HOW MUCH CARBON DIOXIDE WILL THE WORLD EMISSION THIS YEAR?
The report projects that total global carbon emissions will be 40.6 billion tons by the end of 2022.
The majority of this year’s total emissions come from emissions from fossil fuels, which alone will release 36.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
Land use change such as deforestation is expected to be responsible for 3.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
All of this could cause atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to average 417.2 parts per million this year — more than 50 percent above pre-industrial levels.
“There are some positive signs, but leaders meeting at COP27 must take meaningful action if we are to have any chance of limiting global warming to nearly 1.3°F (1.5°C).
“The Global Carbon Budget figures monitor progress on climate action and at the moment we don’t see the action needed.”
The report, published today in Earth System Science Data, projects that total global carbon emissions will be 40.6 billion tons by the end of 2022.
This is close to the 40.9 billion tonnes released in 2019 – the highest annual total ever recorded.
Most of this year’s total comes from fossil fuel emissions, which alone will release 36.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide, a 1 percent increase from 2021.
Oil is expected to be the largest contributor to overall emissions growth, largely due to the return of international aviation following COVID-19 restrictions.
Emissions in China and the EU are expected to decrease by 0.9 and 0.8 percent, respectively, while India and the US are expected to increase by 6 and 1.5 percent, respectively.
The Global Carbon Budget Team forecasts a 1.5 percent increase in emissions for the rest of the world combined.
Land-use changes such as deforestation are expected to be responsible for 3.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide this year.
Indonesia, Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo contribute 58 percent to global land use emissions.
All of this could cause atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to average 417.2 parts per million this year — more than 50 percent above pre-industrial levels.
The majority of this year’s total emissions come from emissions from fossil fuels such as the burning of oil and coal, which alone will release 36.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide
The Global Carbon Budget report also looks at the amount of carbon stored in sinks such as the sea and vegetation, which absorb more than they release.
Ocean and land carbon sinks are absorbing and storing increasing amounts and currently contain about half of global carbon emissions.
However, sink growth has been reduced by an estimated 4 percent in the ocean and 17 percent on land over the past decade due to climate change.
For example, changes in precipitation and temperature can negatively impact the health of vegetation, and therefore how much carbon it can store.
Also, as the ocean warms, it becomes less efficient at holding carbon dioxide.
It’s not all bad news, as the report notes that the long-term rate of rising fossil emissions has slowed.
While the highest average annual increase was 3 percent in the 2000s, it has been only about 0.5 percent over the past decade.
The research team welcomed this slowdown but said it was “far from the emissions reductions we need.”
Oil is expected to be the largest contributor to overall emissions growth, largely due to the return of international aviation following COVID-19 restrictions
Humanity is “clearly facing a climate emergency,” the report warns
With the highest carbon dioxide levels on record and temperatures continuing to rise, Earth has officially reached code red, a new report warns.
In the World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2022 report, researchers warn that humanity is “clearly facing a climate emergency.”
They analyzed 35 planetary signs of life used to track climate change, including tree loss from fires and extreme heat events, and found that 16 of those signs are reaching a record extreme.
Read more here
We can now emit just 380 billion tons of carbon dioxide to have a 50 percent chance of limiting global warming to 1.3°F (1.5°C).
If emissions remain at current levels, we will surpass them in just nine years.
Emitting a maximum of 1,230 billion tons of carbon dioxide will give us a 50 percent chance of limiting global warming to 1.1°F (2°C).
A reduction of about 1.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide is now required each year to reach zero emissions by 2050.
This matches the observed reduction in emissions in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 lockdowns around the world.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia said: “Our results show turbulence in emissions patterns this year, attributed to the pandemic and global energy crises.
“If governments respond by supercharging clean energy investments and planting trees instead of cutting them down, global emissions could start falling quickly.
“We are at an inflection point and cannot allow world events to distract us from the urgent and ongoing need to reduce our emissions to stabilize global climate and reduce cascading risks.”
dr Robin Lamboll, Research Associate in Climate Science and Policy at Imperial College London, added: “This thorough work combines many lines of evidence to assess the total carbon we release.
“The story it shows is grim. That emissions continue to rise during this oil and gas price crisis is incredibly disappointing – it should have been a reminder of the fragility of the fossil fuel economy.
“The report should remind COP27 negotiators that their actions so far have been inadequate.”