After rising in 2022 linked to the war in Ukraine, world food prices fell 13.7% in 2023, with significant declines in vegetable oils and grains, the United Nations said on Friday.
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The price index calculated by the FAO, which tracks fluctuations in international prices for a basket of foods traded in markets, fell 15.4% for grains in 2023 compared to the previous year, “reflecting well-supplied global markets.” .
If the gap between the fall in prices in agricultural markets and the inflation on supermarket shelves does not yet allow consumers to perceive this decline, a tide has turned after the unprecedented rise in prices in 2022.
Grain and oil prices then rose sharply, reflecting concerns about a slump in production in agricultural superpower Ukraine – then the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil and the fourth-largest exporter of corn and wheat.
Prices of wheat, a key bread grain, had skyrocketed, prompting the UN to fear there could be a growing food disaster in fragile states.
The maintenance of Kiev's even lower exports, the abundance of Russian and Australian wheat supplies and the good Brazilian corn and soybean harvests have favored the fall in prices (-28% for wheat on the European market over a year). .
AFP
That decline offered importers a reprieve, but the FAO estimated in November that global spending on food imports was likely to rise further in 2023, particularly due to transportation costs and unfavorable exchange rate effects for fragile states.
The decline observed in 2023 is all the more remarkable in cereals since the FAO rice price index increased by 21% during this period, largely due to concerns about the possible impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon on world production and export restrictions imposed by India.
The largest decline is in vegetable oils, which are down 32.7% in 2023 compared to 2022. A decline that continues in December, “with soybean oil in particular affected by a slowdown in demand from the biodiesel sector as well as the improvement in weather conditions in the main growing areas of Brazil,” specifies the FAO.
Sugar is the only production that managed to escape the general annual decline, with an increase of 26.7%. But finally the decline began: in December the index fell by 16.6% compared to November and reached its “lowest level in nine months”.
The drop in sugar prices is “mainly due to the sustained pace of production in Brazil as well as the lower use of sugar cane for ethanol production in India,” emphasizes the UN organization.
AFP
Dairy product prices did not escape the general decline (-23.6% in 2023) due to sluggish import demand, but the FAO notes a recovery at the end of the year, with an increase of 1.6% in December compared to November : an increase due to the increase in prices of butter, whole milk powder and cheese, particularly due to the year-end holidays in Western Europe and due to increased demand in the Middle East.
Meat is the product that has changed the least, with a price decrease of 3.5% in 2023 compared to the previous year, against the backdrop of moderate demand from main importers and, in particular, lower appetite among Chinese consumers.
The decline affects beef, sheep and poultry and is partly offset by an increase in average pork prices.