2023 was just confirmed as the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures 1.48°C above pre-industrial conditions, the European Union's Copernicus program recently reported. A year ago, climatologists at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center – Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS) were able to predict with high probability that 2023 would be the warmest year since records were collected, based on the center's own decadal forecast system.
After the record-breaking conditions of 2023, the question is what will things look like in 2024 and beyond? Recently released decadal forecasts from the BSC show that the planet's average annual surface temperatures in 2024 could exceed those in 2023 and will continue to rise in subsequent years as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue.
Their estimates suggest that the average annual temperature of the planet's surface in 2024 will be between 1.43 and 1.69 °C higher than pre-industrial levels.
Climatologists from the Climate Variability and Change (CVC) group of the BSC Department of Geosciences have just announced their forecast for the next ten years, i.e. for the period 2024 to 2033.
The BSC's decadal prediction system predicts that the planet's average annual surface temperature in 2024 will be between 1.43 and 1.69 °C above pre-industrial levels (defined as the average temperature between 1850 and 1900). , with a central estimate of 1.54°C.
Forecasts for the coming years
This means that temperatures in 2024 are likely to be higher than in 2023 and that there is a high probability (74%) that the global annual average temperature will exceed the threshold of 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels for the first time.
The warming is mainly due to continuous warming Greenhouse gas emissions enter the atmosphere through human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels.
The conditions of the El Niño phenomenon Developments in the Pacific Ocean, expected to peak in the winter of 2023 to 2024, are also contributing to exceptionally warm global average temperature conditions.
Surface temperatures are predicted to continue rising over the next decade due to continued greenhouse gas emissions.
BSC researcher Roberto Bilbao, the main person responsible for the BSC's decadal forecast, explains: “Our decadal forecast system allows us to predict both interannual fluctuations and longer-term warming trends, taking into account the influences of greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gases and aerosols.” as well as the natural variability of the climate system.”
Surface temperatures are predicted to continue rising over the next decade due to continued greenhouse gas emissions. The BSC forecast system predicts that global average temperatures could range between 20 and 20% over the next two decades (2024-2028 and 2029-2033). 1.49 and 1.79 ºC either 1.67 And 1.94°C each above pre-industrial levels.
Even if the annual average temperature exceeds the 1.5 degree threshold in 2024, this does not necessarily violate the Paris Agreement, which refers to the 20-year average, but rather that the world is quickly approaching this threshold. Combining the observations of the last 10 years with the BSC's 10-year forecasts, The average for this 20-year period is 1.41 ± 0.05 °C. It means that We are on the verge of breaking the Paris Agreement in the coming years.
“Despite possible interannual fluctuations, in which certain years may be slightly warmer or colder than previous ones, the global climate remains on a worrying warming path that brings us closer to achieving the goals that world leaders are aiming for “We reached an agreement in Paris in 2015,” explains ICREA professor and co-head of the BSC CVC group, Markus Donat.