Updated 11/27/23 at 7:10 p.m.
Episodes of very heavy rainfall, which can lead to catastrophic flooding, are becoming more frequent and intense as the planet warms, and will occur more frequently in the future than weather models have previously predicted. At least that’s what a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany confirms, a few days before the opening of COP28.
This work suggests that the consequences “could be much worse than we thought,” he said in a statement. Different Levermann, one of the researchers behind the paper published in the Journal of Climate. “Extreme rainfall will be heavier and more frequent. Society must prepare for this,” he added.
According to the study, the largest increases in precipitation will occur in tropical regions and high latitudes such as Southeast Asia and northern Canada. The phenomenon is related to the fact that hot air can contain more water vapor.
More predictable disasters
For their work, the researchers compared the simulations of numerous climate models with the changes observed historically. “Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall increases exponentially with each increase in global warming,” said Max Kotz, lead author of the study.
“The good news is that this makes it easier to predict the arrival of extreme rainfall,” said Anders Levermann. “The bad news is that if we continue to worsen global warming by emitting greenhouse gases, things will get worse. »