Animation showing deviations of global average surface temperature from average compared to 1951-1980. Image: NASA GISS.
Believe it or not, average global surface temperatures have actually been relatively cool for the past three years — but that’s about to change.
Why it matters: Temperatures are expected to skyrocket this year – and 2024 could set a new global record.
The big picture: A rare “triple dip” La Niña in the tropical Pacific kept temperatures in check in 2022, with the year being the fifth warmest on instrument records.
- Characterized by cooler-than-average waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific, La Niña events tend to cap global temperatures.
- But 2022 was still the fifth warmest year on record, according to NASA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. And if the phenomenon dissipates, as forecasts are increasingly suggesting, global temperatures would likely rise this year and even more next year.
- If an El Niño event – marked by below-average sea temperatures – hits the tropical Pacific, 2023 could even reach or approach a record high.
What you say: “I’m projecting about a 15% chance of a new record in 2023. And if we’re in an El Niño in late 2023, it’s almost certain that a new record will be set in 2024,” says Gavin Schmidt, who directs the Goddard NASA’s Institute for Space conducts studies in New York, Axios said via email.
Zoom in: According to NASA, record-breaking 2020 and 2016 were the warmest years, with the latter occurring just as a large El Niño was underway. This has led some climate change doubters to claim that global warming stopped in 2016.
What’s next: This year looks milder than the last few years. It has a good chance of making at least the top five, if not the top three, of the warmest years, depending on how an El Niño transition plays out.
- Then 2024 has a higher chance of setting a new record, scientists told Axios. This is partly because the atmosphere’s response to El Niño is delayed.
Threat Level: The UK Met Office forecasts that global average temperatures in 2023 will be at least 1.2°C (2.16°F) above the pre-industrial average. Remember that the Paris Agreement seeks to limit warming to 1.5°C.
- If warming exceeds this target, studies show, the odds of potentially devastating climate change outcomes, such as greater melting of the polar ice sheets and loss of tropical coral reefs, increase.
- Zeke Hausfather, head of climate research at payments company Stripe, said 2023 is looking warmer than recent years, but it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly how much at this point.
- “Given delays in surface temperature response, a transition to El Niño conditions in the second half of 2023 would have a larger impact in 2024,” he said via email.