The pollution of terrestrial and aquatic systems by the plastics that humans consume and whose waste we do not manage well is one of those environmental problems that we already measure in millions of tons: more than 20 million tons of plastic are produced every year (the equivalent of 1,770). truckloads per day) are dumped in nature. The scenarios proposed for the coming decades suggest a significant increase in these discharges into the environment if the problem is not solved. And to counteract this, more and more experts are thinking of only one solution: stopping the production of plastic, a petroleum derivative that is also one of the fossil fuels responsible for the climate crisis.
It is not enough for one country to act alone and impose vetoes. Coordinated action is needed on an issue that, like most environmental problems, is cross-border. Because just as waste travels from one country to another (usually from a rich one to a poor one) to supposedly be disposed of and eventually thrown into nature, plastic travels down rivers to pollute the oceans – and even the air – and that across countries and continents.
Since 1992, there has been a Framework Convention on Climate Change within the United Nations to address the major global crisis caused by global warming. This resulted in the Paris Agreement in 2015, which regulates all efforts to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions that have led to the current exceptional situation on Earth.
In this sense, 2024 should be similar to 2015 but focused on plastic pollution. The countries represented in the UN have decided that the world should have the first treaty to curb this pollution by the end of this year.
For the author of these images, plastics penetrate the seas and oceans of our planet, crossing countries and continents, like real UFOs. Carlos de Paz
The complex process of preparing this international agreement began in 2022 and continued at a good pace until the end of 2023. But the last meeting in Nairobi last November awakened many people's dreams of a quick agreement. Because, as diplomatic sources monitoring the process explain, the countries that are least likely to tackle the problem and have stronger interests (led by oil producers) are slowing down negotiations. In this sense, it now seems more difficult to approve the contract by the end of 2024. There are also growing fears that some of the mistakes of the 2015 Paris Agreement could be repeated.
Let's get back to the data. Plastic pollution is already measured in hundreds of millions of tons, but to find the origins you don't have to go back thousands of years, just a few decades. In 1950, global plastic production was just two million tons. Three decades later, in 1980, it had multiplied almost 40-fold, reaching 75 million tons. Currently more than 460 million units are produced every year. And the majority – around 95% – is primary plastic, meaning only 5% comes from recycling. This is due, among other things, to the fact that it is simple and inexpensive to produce, since the costs that its production and disposal impose on society are not well reflected in the price. In short, we live in the generation of single-use plastic.
All this data comes from various reports from the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), whose experts warn of a negative scenario of the development of the problem if policies do not change: in 2040, global plastic production will reach 765 million, tons, only 9.5% of this is recycled. In 2060 there will be 1,230 million tonnes and only 11.6% will come from secondary recycling.
To understand the matter better, it is good to know what we use plastic for. The first destination is (up to 30%) containers and packaging. That is, products with a very short lifespan. Construction, vehicles and clothing follow at a distance. The second key is knowing where these plastics end up after they are used: according to the latest data from the OECD, of the 360 million tons of plastic waste generated in 2020, only 9.4% was recycled. 18.6% was incinerated and 50% ended up in landfills. 22.5%, or 81 million tons, was not managed well and ended up polluting the environment.
Depending on its composition, plastic like the one in this bottle takes between 100 and 1,000 years to break down. Carlos de Paz
It is estimated that more than 20 million tons of plastics are disposed of in an uncontrolled manner every year. 30% ends up in rivers and seas and the remaining 70% on land. By 2040, according to OECD experts, the goals and commitments of the plastics agreement foresee that discharges will increase by 50% to almost 30 million tons per year. The problem is the same again: the lack of reuse. For the same year 2040, the OECD estimates that if current policies do not change, only 14.2% of plastic waste will be recycled, slightly higher than the current 9.4%. We don't learn the lesson.
For this reason, many countries – including the European Union, a number of Latin American and African countries – insist that the future treaty negotiated at the United Nations should truly cover the entire life cycle of plastics, which means setting limits for Plastics would require the production of virgin materials. However, another set of nations are now trying to ensure that this pact only proposes measures that address pollution, that is, once the problem has arisen, and not diversion from its point of origin. According to diplomatic sources, this group includes countries such as Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, Iran and Egypt.
In some ways, it is similar to the Paris Agreement, whose goals relate to greenhouse gases, but which does not directly address reducing oil, gas and coal production, the fossil fuels primarily responsible for these emissions.
The Paris Agreement also sets a common target and then countries submit climate plans in which each country sets its own emissions reduction target. This model is the one that the less ambitious states (and the United States) are also considering for this hypothetical plastic pact. But the most committed nations are pushing for the treaty to include specific measures against certain plastics and chemicals that are binding on all signatories.
One of the biggest difficulties lies in the rules of procedure, i.e. the way in which such disputes between negotiators are resolved. It was originally proposed that this plastics agreement would include the possibility of voting on lifting the blockade and submitting a proposal with two-thirds of the countries. But less ambitious states now want the same Paris formula: all decisions must be made by consensus, which could lead to a minority blocking any progress and jeopardizing the global ambition of a pact to end plastic pollution this year will be destroyed in 2024.
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