GOLD (XAU/USD) PRICE PREDICTION:
MOST READ: GBP Price Action Settings: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD Post UK CPI
Gold prices are under renewed selling pressure today as hawkish statements from Fed policymakers dominated recent hopes that the Fed is on its last legs. Market participants had hoped that Fed Chairman Powell would adopt a different tone in his speech at the US Federal Reserve’s statistics conference. However, the Fed Chairman neglected to address monetary policy, but will be back tomorrow and could address it then.
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The US Dollar Index recovery is facing key resistance
The Dollar Index continues its recovery attempt today but is struggling in the 105.63 area, which has served as a key resistance area in the past. The renewed optimism comes as Fed policymakers Kashkari and Bowman both hint at further rate hikes as the economy remains hot.
Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see whether Fed Chairman Powell will comment on monetary policy tomorrow. Aside from that, Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment numbers, due out Friday, will be the only other factor that could impact the U.S. dollar this week.
US Dollar Index, daily chart, November 8th
Source: TradingView
Despite policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric, expectations of another rate hike have barely changed, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Markets still expect the Fed to leave interest rates at current levels at the December meeting with a 90% probability. Considering what’s still on the calendar this week, there’s a good chance nothing will change.
All market-moving economic news and events can be found in the DailyFX calendar
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GOLD
From a technical perspective, gold continued its decline towards the psychological level of $1950. A break below $1950 opens the door for a return to $1900, but there will be some key tests of support that need to be overcome first.
The 50-, 100- and 200-day MAs are all in the $12 area, with the $1,930 support being the most prominent. It actually looked like we had a golden cross pattern and that could still occur, but we would need a recovery first.
Important levels to keep an eye on:
Resistance levels:
Support levels:
Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – November 8, 2023
Source: TradingView, chart created by Zain Vawda
IG CUSTOMER SENSATIONS
A quick look at IG client sentiment shows that retail traders are taking long positions in gold, with 58% of retail traders holding long positions. Given the contrasting view of crowd sentiment expressed here at DailyFX, is this a sign that gold prices could fall further?
For a more detailed insight into GOLD customer sentiment and ways to take advantage of it, download the guide below!!
of customers are net long. of customers are net short.
Change into | Longs | Short pants | OI |
| Daily | -2% | 11% | 3% |
| Weekly | 2% | 12% | 6% |
Written by: Zain Vawda, Markets Writer for DailyFX.com
Contact Zain and follow him on Twitter: @zvawda
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