Since the end of the grain deal in July, Russia has carried out a campaign of bombing Ukrainian ports. However, Ukraine manages to export its agricultural products, which are vital to its economy, thanks to enormous efforts to establish alternative routes to cross the Black Sea. France 24 takes stock.
Published on: September 27, 2023 – 9:00 p.m
5 minutes
Since July 17 and the end of the grain agreement that gave Kiev a safe corridor in the Black Sea, Moscow has again been exercising a kind of naval blockade. For two months now, only two ships loaded with agricultural products have dared to make the crossing in September to reach the Bosphorus in Turkey from the port of Chornomorsk near Odessa.
Since the end of July, Russia has also been regularly bombing Odessa, the most important Ukrainian port on the Black Sea, as well as Reni and Ismail, two smaller ports on the Danube. Moscow has targeted port, road and rail infrastructure designed to allow Ukraine to continue its grain exports (wheat, sunflower, corn) as well as its storage capacity, plunging the country’s southern regions into daily terror of bombings.
Given Moscow’s desire to stop its agricultural exports, “Ukraine has made the creation of a corridor without a deal with Russia a priority goal,” estimates Andrii Klymenko, editor-in-chief of Black Sea News, in Le Figaro, a Ukrainian website specializing in the black Sea.
“In mid-July this year, Ukraine mapped a new route through its territorial waters and then submitted it to the headquarters of the International Maritime Organization. This corridor runs along the coast of the Odessa region up to the Snake Island towards Romanian territorial waters.” In order to reassure shipowners, Ukraine has also set up a fund to cover the insurance costs of boats that want to reach Odessa.
However, Kiev relies primarily on the Danube for its grain exports. Since the end of July, just over 3 million tonnes have been transported via this route. Arthur Portier, a consultant at Agritel, a company that specializes in agricultural and agri-industrial market analysis, believes this alternative, more expensive route is having “some crazy” success despite the bombings. For France 24 he takes stock of the situation two months after the end of the grain agreement in the Black Sea.
France 24: Since the end of the corridor, what alternatives has Ukraine found to continue exporting its agricultural production? ?
Arthur Porter: The corridor, established in August 2022 and lasting until July 18, 2023, allowed the removal of 30 million tons of grain. But during this time the Ukrainians did not stand idle and tried to develop alternatives for their exports. The first option is in the truck; The second option, by rail, allows grain to be transported via a solidarity corridor set up by Europe.
Has Ukraine abandoned the sea route to export its grain?
NO. Significant investments were also made in the Danube following the destruction of four of Mykolaiv’s five port terminals during the conflict. Smaller ships are loaded in Reni and Izmail, two major river ports, before heading to the Black Sea, where their cargo is transferred to larger ships, mainly in Constanta, Romania.
Thanks to these alternative routes, there was no significant impact on prices. Even without the Black Sea corridor, Ukrainians now manage to export around two to three million tons of grain every month, all grain combined, which is still pretty crazy. This clearly shows the rise of these alternative routes that work today by truck, by train and on the Danube.
This explains the recent Russian bombings in the Odessa region and on the Romanian border. ?
Yes, for a few weeks now the Russians have understood the situation and have obviously started strategically shelling the Danube ports. The border between Romania and Ukraine was also bombed. This currently primarily affects warehouse logistics infrastructures.
Is the new Black Sea route, which will be taken by two cargo ships in September, a turning point? ?
The Black Sea remains an area of intense conflict. Retaliation is possible if the Ukrainians load ships without – I say this in large quotation marks – “permission” from the Russians.
The two grain ships that used the new corridor do not represent significant volumes, so the situation does not really change at a global level. But if a boat were hit, it could have serious consequences. I don’t see this route as a relaxing element for teaching. I see this as an element that brings even more uncertainty to the market.
Do you think ships will find insurers bypassing the Russian blockade in the Black Sea? ?
Yes, but the insurance costs will be significant. It has always been like this in the Black Sea. It is high because the area poses great risks.
To quickly reach Romanian waters, it is best to follow the coast, knowing that there are always sea mines there. So you have to be careful. In the past, military escorts were used, a type of inflatable boat that accompanied the boats to detect floating mines. All of this has its price, that’s a fact.
