Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (Table 1), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' “second” estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP rose by 4.9 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than the “advance” estimate released last month. In the preliminary estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision in private inventory investment, partially offset by upward revisions in state and local government spending and consumer spending (see “GDP Updates”).
The rise in real GDP This reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal spending, and residential fixed investment, partially offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in calculating GDP, increased (Table 2).
Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the slowdown is in real GDP the fourth quarter primarily reflected a decline in private inventory investment and a slowdown in federal spending, housing investment and consumer spending. Imports have slowed.
Current GDP in dollars rose 4.9 percent annually, or $334.5 billion, to a level of $27.94 trillion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $5.8 billion from the previous estimate (Tables 1 and 3). For more information about the source data underlying the estimates, see the Key Source Data and Assumptions file on the BEA website.
The Price index for gross domestic purchases rose 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the same as the previous estimate. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. rose by 1.8 percent, which corresponds to an upward correction of 0.1 percentage points. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 2.1 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points.
Personal income
Personal income in current dollars rose $219.5 billion in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $5.4 billion from the previous estimate. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income income from assets, and owner income, which were partially offset by a decrease in personal current transfer income (Table 8).
Available income rose $202.5 billion, or 4.0 percent, in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $9.2 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income rose by 2.2 percent, which corresponds to a downward correction of 0.3 percentage points.
Personal saving was $809.2 billion in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $22.4 billion from the previous estimate. The personal savings rate– personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income – was 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points.
GDP updates
With the second estimate, downward revisions in private inventory investment and federal spending were partially offset by upward revisions in state and local government spending, consumer spending, housing investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports. Imports have been revised upwards. For more information, see the technical note. For GDP updates, see the Additional Information section below.
| Estimate | Second estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| (Percentage change from previous quarter) | ||
| Real GDP | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Current GDP in dollars | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Real GDI | … | … |
| Average of real GDP and real GDI | … | … |
| Gross domestic purchasing price index | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| PCE price index | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Third Quarter Wages and Salaries Updates
In addition to the updated estimates for the fourth quarter, today's press release presents revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and state Social Security contributions for the third quarter, based on updated data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Employment and Wage Census program . Wages and salaries are estimated to have increased by $184.2 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $23.0 billion. Current personal taxes are estimated to have increased by $61.5 billion, an upward revision of $8.9 billion. State Social Security contributions are now estimated to have increased by $23.2 billion, an upward revision of $3.0 billion. Incorporating this new data, real gross domestic income is now estimated to have increased by 1.9 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the previously published estimate.
GDP for 2023
Real GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2023 (from 2022 annual level to 2023 annual level), compared to an increase of 1.9 percent in 2022 (Table 1). The increase in real GDP in 2023 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, non-housing fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports and federal spending, partially offset by declines in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment became. Imports fell (Table 2).
Current GDP in dollars rose 6.3 percent, or $1.61 trillion, to a level of $27.36 trillion in 2023, compared to an increase of 9.1 percent, or $2.15 trillion, in 2022 ( Tables 1 and 3).
The Price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in 2023, compared to an increase of 6.8 percent in 2022 (Table 4). The PCE price index rose 3.7 percent, compared to an increase of 6.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 4.1 percent, compared with an increase of 5.2 percent.
Measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased by 3.1 percent during this period (Table 5), compared to an increase of 0.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022.
The gross domestic purchases price index, measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 6.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The PCE price The PCE price index increased 2.8 percent, compared to an increase of 5.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2 percent, compared to an increase of 5.1 percent .
| Estimate | Second estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| (Percentage change from the 2022 annual level to the 2023 annual level) | ||
| Real GDP | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Current GDP in dollars | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Gross domestic purchasing price index | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| PCE price index | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| (Percentage change from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023) | ||
| Real GDP | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Gross domestic purchasing price index | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| PCE price index | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.2 | 3.2 |
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Next publication March 28, 2024, 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross domestic product (third estimate)
Corporate profits
Gross domestic product by industry
Fourth quarter of 2023 and year 2023