Part of the magic of the Pyrenees lies in that beautiful white mantle that covers their mountains for several months of the year. That iconic postcard led to the establishment of about 50 ski resorts there – most of them arriving decades ago – that use this snow to make their slopes available to skiers all winter and part of spring.
However, given climate change, the prospects for the coming decades are worrying. According to the forecasts of the Pyrenean Climate Change Observatory (OPCC) – a collaborative scientific body between Spain, France and Andorra, part of the Pyrenees Work Community (CTP) public consortium – in 2050 there will be a snow thickness 50% lower than the current one at altitudes of 1,800 to 2,200 meters, a strip occupied by most stations. And this takes into account an intermediate greenhouse gas scenario (RCP 4.5) in which emissions peak around 2040 and then gradually decrease (according to the IPCC classification, the UN expert group on climate change). If the scenario were at its most pessimistic (without reducing emissions), the decrease in snow thickness could reach 70% and even greater at low levels.
Two skiers in the French resort of Font-Romeu/Bolquere Pyrenees, in January. CHARLY TRIBALLEAU (AFP)
Although the impact of global warming on reducing average annual precipitation is uncertain, it is scientifically undeniable that if emissions continue, temperatures will rise, and more so in the Pyrenees (an aspect recognized by scientists at the IPCC, OPCC , Pyrenean Institute for Ecology and Foundation for Climate Research). According to the OPCC, this will result in some of the precipitation changing from snow to rain, while the first snowfalls will arrive later and the thaw will occur earlier. An example is the projected reduction in snow cover (the amount of snow available in a location).
“In our projections, we compare the thickness of the snow cover with the average for the years 1981-2010,” explains Juan Terrádez, a climate researcher at the OPCC. “This means that if the average snow cover in the three decades since 1981 was 50 centimeters in one season, it would be 25 centimeters in this scenario.”
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Carlos Ara, ski expert, points out that the winter sports season in this massif starts at the beginning of December and ends at the end of March or beginning of April: “The December long weekend usually has the problem that sometimes it does not snow still, but this has been happening since many years. Some resorts try to compensate with artificial snow cannons, but cold and humidity are required for them to work. When they have these conditions, snow is created to create a base that covers the mountain so that when it snows it does not fall on dry ground, but on a snow base that helps it stay better and not melt quickly. “. However, artificial snow alone cannot keep a station running: “That would be very complicated,” says Ara. It is necessary to combine it with copious snowfalls, the volume of which then spreads over the slopes. But climate forecasts call for a sharp reduction even in the peak season months.
Dominic Royé, climatologist at the Foundation for Climate Research (FIC), points out that the Pyrenees are one of the “most sensitive” areas to climate change: “The temperature rise is greater in mountain areas, they are more vulnerable places, just like the poles. This will lead to a loss of ice and snow cover.” The OPCC data shows the forecast for a rise in temperature, which is very worrying, especially with regard to the minimum temperatures: above zero degrees, snow and ice are melting and it is very difficult to keep them to maintain. According to this organization, 1.41 °C more are expected at an altitude of 2,100 meters in 2050 in a moderate emission scenario (RCP 4.5); If we talk about the bearish scenario, the increase would reach almost 2°C.
Jesús Revuelto, researcher at the Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (IPE-CSIC), points out that forecasts of precipitation trends in climate scenarios are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, but not of temperatures: “It is very difficult to say whether it will rain more or less, but there will be a categorical thermal increase. For this reason, it can be expected that the melting of the snow cover will take place earlier, not in April or May, but maybe earlier in some years, in February or March.” In his opinion, “it is likely that in 20 or 30 years there will be more frequent recurring winters with little snow and some years with cold spells and more snowfall. Although the snow will remain at the highest levels and will not disappear from the mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, it will be reduced”.
Marc Lemús, researcher at Andorra Recerca + Innovació and the University of Santiago de Compostela, has published a study (for the Congress of the Spanish Association of Climatology) in which he shows, using satellite images, that the snow cover of the massif will decrease: “In In a critical scenario, with the same emissions, this reduction will be more noticeable. And it will be more pronounced on the southern slope, which is heavily influenced by climate variability. In fact, there are already stations like Port del Compte or Vall de Nuria [ambas en Cataluña] who live from one to two heavy rainfalls a year”. Also: “As the temperature rises, snow cover begins at higher elevations. Those that are better able to withstand these changes are the stations in the north of Andorra and those on the north face of the Pyrenees.”
This trend is also affecting the higher Alps – the recent decline in snow cover in these mountains is unprecedented in six centuries, according to a January paper in Nature – and has prompted a group of competitive athletes to sign a letter to request that measures be taken in the face of the climatic emergency after realizing that there has been a lack of snow this season and some tournaments have had to be suspended. “Hotter means less conditions for snowfall. So in 30 years, the number of days available for skiing in the Pyrenees will be greatly reduced,” summarizes climatologist Dominic Royé.
However, several ski resorts in the Pyrenees continue to expand slopes or plan to do so in the future. Cerler in Aragon has just grown 23 kilometers in the Castanesa Valley, while Astún and Formigal, also from Aragon, are planning an eight-kilometer cable car to connect them (largely paid for with European public money). Baqueira (Catalonia) opened a new slope in D’Ossau with the modernization of a ski lift and Bohí Taull (also Catalan) has added two more.
In Andorra, Grandvalira has added the Pont-Grau track and Pal Arinsal station is planning a future expansion. In France, Peyragudes has a new chairlift that takes the slopes to 2,368 meters; Saint-Lary now has two new ski lifts, but they have replaced five old ones that removed 38 pylons (posts) in an action they frame in the station’s climatic adaptation.
Given these forecasts, what are the prospects for skiing in the region three decades from now? “For us, the key is to invest in a good network of produced snow. Our resorts have an average of 66% of the area covered with cultivated snow,” replies a spokeswoman for the Andorran resorts. The new pistols do not need sub-zero temperatures to work, but can also do so at 1 or 2 degrees plus. However, the cold is essential for the snow to remain; If the minimum temperatures rise, this will not be enough.
The French resort of La Pierre Saint-Martin had to close its slopes in early January due to a lack of snow. GAIZKA IROZ (AFP)
A spokesman for the Pyrenees Agency, a public body that brings together 39 French ski resorts (skiing and other sports), points out that the ski resorts are “preparing for the four seasons”: “In the future, if it doesn’t snow in November, the ski lifts could be adapted for mountain bike descents, as well as for other activities such as trekking routes, hiking, descent with strollers [todoterrenos]… The train station of Luchon Superbagnères reactivated the bicycles in October and November, and Artouste has the train of the Route of the Lakes”.
However, ski expert Carlos Ara is skeptical about these uses: “All resorts talk about diversifying their activities, but their main business is selling ski passes [abonos] for downhill skiing. According to the Pyrenees Agency, “as long as it’s cold in the mountains, there are two or three good snowfalls a year, and snow can be made in temperatures below a degree or two, we’ll keep skiing.” None of the Spanish channels consulted replied to the newspaper’s questionnaire.
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He contributed to the preparation of this report Jose A. Alvarez.
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