As the dead are counted and several analysts speak of Hamas’ astonishing firepower, it is difficult to ignore everything that this attack of unprecedented violence could change as the escalation begins.
Predictable reaction, destabilizing force
The statement by the Israeli UN ambassador alone sums up the shock: “This is our September 11th.” And September 11th, 2001 was the work of terrorists, as was the recent attack on Israel.
What is surprising is not so much the attack – after all, the last year was marked by the intensification of the conflict – but rather the thoroughness of the operation and the variety of means used.
Although the CIA and Mossad appear to have neglected certain indicators, they were aware that deep anger and a desire for revenge were brewing in response to the stance of an ultra-Orthodox government.
So what we underestimated was the power. Was Hamas able to organize the worst attack on Israeli soil alone? The answer is no and that is what makes us fear the worst.
Iran is more involved than ever before
During the day on Sunday, the focus was on support for Iran. “Death to Israel” was heard in the Tehran parliament and a message to Arab countries to normalize their relations with Israel was heard.
Iran had supported Hamas and supplied it with weapons for around forty years. This time things have changed, Iran has never gone this far.
We must now pay attention to the next chess pieces the Supreme Leader’s country will move. The collapse of the Saudi-Israel deal may have required the support of Hamas, but for now it is the Palestinians who alone must suffer the wrath of the Israeli army.
In the United States, many voices have been raised criticizing the Biden administration over its recent agreement with the Iranian regime (return of five Americans imprisoned in Iran).
It doesn’t matter that Iran didn’t have access to the $6 billion that was supposed to be gradually returned to it, the timing could hardly be worse for Biden.
Biden wants to limit the damage
Already struggling with Republican chaos that is depriving him of billions promised to Ukraine, the president is once again relying on the fratricidal war raging among his rivals to divert attention. Will civil war stop the United States from coming to the aid of a steadfast ally?
Nevertheless, his main focus must be on limiting the extent of the conflict. His Secretary of State Antony Blinken tried to do this on Sunday by contacting Egypt, Qatar and Turkey.
At the start of what promises to be an eventful election year, Biden would have liked to announce that Saudi Arabia is joining the Abraham Accords and that its talks with the Iranian regime are making progress. Nothing is less safe.
