If the operation has this name, it is because Islam’s holy site in Jerusalem is used by Hamas as justification for the “war” it has just launched against Israel. Ultra-Orthodox Jews invaded the Al-Aqsa Mosque complex on the Jewish holiday of Sukkot last week to perform “Talmudic rituals.”
However, the site is forbidden to religious Jews because the site of their temple, destroyed by the Romans, is sacred and of which only the Western Wall remains. Sacred to both Muslims and Jews, the “Promenade of Mosques” is one of the most controversial sites in the Holy Land.
Hamas said its large-scale surprise attack was in response to the desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and increasing violence by far-right Jewish settlers. Five ultra-Orthodox Jews were arrested in Jerusalem for spitting on Christians. Members of the small Palestinian Christian community say they have faced increasing harassment and intimidation since Netanyahu took power.
It is not the first time that the mosque has provoked clashes between Israelis and Palestinians. In 2000, the “second intifada,” the five-year-long Palestinian uprising, was sparked by a provocative visit to the site by Ariel Sharon, then the leader of Israel’s right-wing opposition.
Israeli police operations on the mosque grounds in May 2021 triggered an eleven-day war between Israel and Hamas.
There will be an escalation, but to what extent?
Israel has already begun responding with deadly airstrikes that will cause significant civilian casualties. They avenge their killed civilians. A ground attack in Gaza and even a temporary occupation to destroy Hamas infrastructure there are likely. But what will happen to the dozens of Israelis held hostage there?
Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri said the group was prepared for the “worst-case scenario” of an Israeli invasion of Gaza. At 365 km², the Gaza Strip is smaller than the island of Montreal at 483 km².
This war could also give rise to a new intifada in the occupied Palestinian territories (West Bank) and even in Israel, where 20% of the population is Palestinian. Iran-backed Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which reportedly has more than 100,000 rockets in its arsenal, says it is closely monitoring the situation. In 2006, he waged a 33-day war against Israel.
Hamas hopes that Arab public opinion will force its country to intervene against Israel and derail U.S.-sponsored negotiations with Saudi Arabia. It’s not a blitzkrieg that begins. Netanyahu told Biden that a “vigorous and prolonged campaign” was needed to defeat the Palestinians. The United States provides Israel with $3.8 billion in unconditional military aid each year.
Where were the Mossad and the CIA?
The Mossad and CIA knew nothing, saw nothing, and planned nothing about the attack, even though they closely monitored the Palestinians. This is not the first catastrophic failure of Israeli intelligence. During the Yom Kippur War in 1973, they were unable to notice the Egyptians’ months of intensive military preparations to retake the Sinai Peninsula.
Israeli intelligence estimates that at least 1,000 Palestinian fighters managed to enter Israel undetected and carried out the attack. This is the first time since the founding of the Jewish state in 1948 that hostilities have occurred within Israel itself (excluding East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Golan Heights).
For months, analysts have warned of a strong Palestinian reaction to the accelerated development of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank and to repeated provocations by Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox government, the most right-wing in Israel’s history.
The calm was deceptive, something serious was about to happen, had to happen. But only God knows how this will end.
