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In South America you can feel the heat. Last week, meteorological teams recorded high temperatures in various cities. Between January 21 and 25, a heat wave occurred in south-central Chile and Argentina, as well as central Colombia. In Santiago de Chile, for example, the third highest temperature in 112 years was reached at 36.7°C. And in Colombia, where the government declared a natural disaster due to wildfires, several communities also experienced above-average temperatures: 40.4°C in Jerusalem (Cundinamarca); 37.6 °C in Sahagún (Córdoba) and 36.9 °C in the coastal town of Santa Marta (Magdalena). Bogotá broke a historic record last Monday with 25.84°C.
The scenario has generated warnings and questions about how to interpret what happened. In an interview with América Futura, Bárbara Tapia Cortés, meteorologist and technical coordinator of services at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Office for the Americas based in Asunción, Paraguay, highlights how climate change and the current phenomenon El Niño have played a role in to advance these conditions.
Questions. Could it be said that high temperature records have been broken in South America in recent days?
Answer. High temperatures were recorded last week. However, there is not always enough data to determine whether records have actually been broken. Because there have been absolute records, i.e. historical ones, since records began. Or there are monthly records, which in other words means looking to see if this January 2024 was one of the warmest. For example, last week Chile recorded 36.7°C, which is the third highest temperature recorded in January in 112 years. And today, with this trend of climate change, different rankings are created, for example according to the highest temperatures of the last ten years. But to say that South America has broken a record as a continent is not correct. To know exactly where this happened, you have to contact the weather services of each country directly, as they have the respective climate statistics, which require at least 30 years of data.
Q Likewise, January is usually a hot month in the region.
R. Yes. As the entire region is in the summer season, it is normal for us to experience high temperature events. That was my whole life. What's unusual is that we have this recurrence or persistence of high temperatures that is closely related to the El Niño phenomenon.
Q What role does this phenomenon play at these high temperatures?
R. This increase in temperature, which, as we said, is a normal situation for the summer season, has been aggravated by the El Niño phenomenon that has been occurring since May 2023 and reaches its maximum between December and January, a situation that tends to lead to extreme high temperature events and therefore to heat waves across South America. Due to the influence of El Niño, the summer season in the region is expected to have record high temperatures above normal for the season and there will also be accumulated rainfall below normal, especially in the north such as in Colombia, Venezuela, Suriname, the Guianas and some areas of Brazil. It is worth remembering that we are coming out of 2023, the warmest year on record, and it is likely that the warming effect of the current El Niño episode will intensify the heat in 2024. This will lead to even more extreme weather events that will destroy even more lives and livelihoods.
Q And what does all of this have to do with climate change?
R. You have to understand something. The El Niño phenomenon is always characterized by the surface temperature of the ocean and is monitored mainly in the central strip of Ecuador, in the middle of the Pacific. But what happened? That the final children, including this one, will be created from an ocean that is already warmer. It's like having a tub of hot water and pouring more hot water into it, rather than a tub of warm water and pouring hot water into it. So similar. So we know that the El Niño that is hitting us now originated under very warm conditions, but we don't yet know how to measure the way it will affect us or how extreme it will be. What we now know, and what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) itself has said, is that since each year seems to be warmer than the previous one, there are extreme events and not only high temperatures but also precipitation and others Events occur, conditions become more frequent and more extreme. So we can say that the El Niño phenomenon that is currently affecting us has been influenced or exacerbated by global warming. And that means it will cause even more harm to the population.
Bárbara Tapia Cortés, meteorologist and technical coordinator of services at the regional office of the World Meteorological Organization. With kind approval
Q Due to the forest fires, Colombia has declared a national emergency. There were also several outbreaks in Chile and the situation was repeated in Argentina, in Chubut. Although there is evidence in some cases that fires were intentional, what other causes could there be? How do weather conditions make them worse?
R. The prevailing meteorological conditions with high temperatures, low moisture content in the air and soil and sometimes moderate wind favor their more frequent occurrence, especially in the summer months. As of January 25, 2024, there were still 81 fires in Chile, of which six were under observation, 15 were fought, 55 were controlled and 5 had already been extinguished, with an affected area of 1,141.56 hectares. However, if high temperatures continue, these outbreaks will continue and could even increase in the summer. Meanwhile, high temperatures in Colombia are keeping nearly 900 communities on alert for the risk of wildfires.
Q An extreme heat wave was also reported in Patagonia, Argentina. What is happening there and what consequences could this heat wave have?
R. High temperatures were recorded in Argentine Patagonia: 43.9 °C in San Antonio Oeste, 42.5 °C in Cipolletti, 41.6 °C in Neuquén and 40.5 °C in San Juan. It is worth remembering that by a heat wave we mean that extremely high temperatures are recorded for three or more consecutive days. That's why they pose a threat to people's health. Between 2000 and 2019, an estimated 489,000 people died each year as a result of the heat. At very high maximum temperatures and also high minimum temperatures, the human body has greater difficulty dissipating heat, which affects the physiology of the human body and can have serious consequences for humans. A very relevant factor is that heat does not affect everyone equally. There are certain social groups that are particularly at risk: older adults, children under 5 years of age, people with a prevalence of heart, kidney and mental illnesses or those at higher risk of suffering from the effects of heat. Also those who live alone and are isolated, those who live in precarious housing conditions and those who work outdoors.
Q Until which month can these high temperatures be expected in the region?
R. The occurrence of extreme events – such as heat waves – could continue throughout much of the summer and early autumn months of the Southern Hemisphere, on average until April or May 2024. However, we must remember that the intensity of temperatures is related to seasonality. In addition, the climate models of forecast centers worldwide assume that the influence of El Niño is likely to last until the March-April-May quarter of 2024.
Q Could this data tell us something that will see 2024 surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record, or is it too early to speculate?
R. It is still too early to suggest that 2024 will be warmer than 2023, as El Niño years are directly related to global temperature increases recorded in recent decades. But the WMO, as well as the Global Forecast Centers, continue to monitor conditions continuously, as post-El Niño normal conditions are expected to continue, but we are near the end of January and therefore making a forecast is very risky.