Will Hezbollah succeed in opening a second front against Israel in the north of the country? Paradoxically, this is the worst thing that could happen to the Palestinians.
Because even if Benjamin Netanyahu were to form a war cabinet with the main Israeli opposition forces, the core of his government remains extremist.
In the late 1990s, Netanyahu took an active role in the collapse of the Oslo Peace Accords. Today, Netanyahu still works with the most extreme political fringe groups, with Israelis who want to complete the colonization of the West Bank and begin colonizing the Gaza Strip.
However, several voices around the world, including those of the Chinese government, are beginning to speak out and denounce the attack on Gaza, which reportedly crosses the threshold of retaliation.
A pretext for colonization
Suspicion is mounting on the Netanyahu government, which may seek to exploit the new war to accelerate the colonization of the West Bank or begin colonizing the Gaza Strip.
A Hezbollah attack could only reinforce Netanyahu’s war logic.
Hezbollah is an organization very similar to Hamas. However, Hezbollah has far greater military resources than Hamas. In addition, it is actively supported by Iran.
For Hamas, Israel’s war is lost from the start. The outcome of a war against Hezbollah and therefore against Iran is less certain. It would most likely cause much greater damage to Israel than to Hamas.
In other words, in such a war Israel could more easily play the victim and therefore better promote the annexation of new Palestinian territories in international public opinion.
High risk of overflow
The regional spillover potential of the war against Hamas is limited, but that of a war against Hezbollah is very large.
If the Israeli army is in trouble, it would be enough for American troops to intervene.
Conversely, Iranian leaders may conclude that a Hezbollah defeat by Israel would represent an intolerable loss of influence and legitimacy for them. They could therefore decide to send Iranian troops directly into the fight against Israel.
Israel’s defense minister said on Sunday his country was not interested in waging war against Hezbollah. The Iranian government also does not seem particularly inclined to start a war against Israel.
But in recent days, Hezbollah has increased its attacks against Israel. Fanatical Hezbollah leaders may believe that the time for the final battle has come.
And most importantly, Iranian leaders have warned Israel of a spiral of uncontrolled violence that could be unleashed if attacks on Gaza continue. One way to explain that Iran’s influence on Hezbollah has its limits.
