FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
TEL AVIV – What stage is the war at? “Things are not going as the Israeli command had hoped. Hamas is holding up much better than expected. But it is still too early to judge,” answers Benny Morris, one of the best-known historians of the Arab-Israeli conflict from its beginnings, long before the birth of the Jewish state in 1948, to the present day.
Eighty days after the Hamas attack, nearly 19,000 Palestinians died in Gaza, according to Hamas-controlled authorities; on October 7, over 1,200 Israeli civilians and military personnel died, and at least 110 more were killed in ground fighting that began on October 27 Soldiers killed: How do you read this conflict in light of past conflicts?
“I would be very cautious about the casualty figures published by Hamas. Nobody can verify whether there were really 19,000; our military estimates the number of guerrillas killed at 7,000. The war is halfway there: the north of Gaza appears to be more or less under our control, and there are still some pockets of resistance in the tunnels. It is expected that the entire surface will be made safe in a few days. However, it appears that much of the vast tunnel system is still intact, with militants surfacing for brief missions and then escaping underground. It will take months to completely eradicate them.
And in the central south?
“Most of their leaders have moved there. For this reason, our best units are now fighting in Khan Younis. There are also hostages in the tunnels in this area.”
Where exactly?
“Our intelligence service was unable to produce an accurate map of the tunnels. And we don't know whether the Israelis will actually succeed in achieving an overall victory within the deadlines set by Joe Biden. What they are is not clear: probably between three and five weeks, at least to control the surface of Gaza. It should be recalled that Israel has not yet attacked the Rafah area in the south, where the tunnels that ensure the supply of weapons and ammunition from the Egyptian Sinai are located. It remains a serious problem. Unlike the PLO in 1982, the leaders of Hamas will not agree to withdrawal or surrender, but will rather die with weapons in hand.”
The October 7 surprise has been compared to that of the 1973 Yom Kippur War: Do you agree?
“The Hamas attack represents a major event in Israeli history, a turning point, comparable to the wars of 1948 and 1967. Hamas caught us unprepared, just like 50 years ago.” But then our army was able to react very quickly, in less In less than two days she managed to stabilize the front and 24 hours later she carried out a successful counterattack. Today the debacle was much more serious, no one was ready to react. We suffered a deep and collective shock. Thanks to Hamas, the Palestinian issue is back on the agenda.”
And now?
“We must wait and see whether the Israeli attack will succeed in stoking Palestinian discontent with Hamas and whether we will ultimately be able to resume negotiations on the two-state solution as they did two decades ago were planned.” But our society has moved strongly to the right, we feel collectively hurt: we feel the need to rebuild our deterrence. The paradox is that the Netanyahu government is completely discredited and its views against the Palestinian state have more support today than before. Over 97 percent of Israelis believe this war is just and Hamas should be eliminated. There is a strong sense of revenge and the belief that if Hamas is not destroyed, the Jewish state itself is at risk of annihilation in this violent and hostile Middle East, where the law of the strongest prevails.”
Do you see no serious resistance to the Netanyahu government?
“The turning point could come now, after our soldiers killed three hostages in Gaza two days ago.” The families of the approximately 130 Hamas prisoners still in custody are beginning to demonstrate for an end to the war in order to prevent the other hostages from joining killed in the fighting. The protests could give rise to a movement calling for an end to the attack on Gaza. But let's not forget that deaths from friendly fire are a constant in every war. Our spokesmen admit that 13 soldiers have already been accidentally killed, about 10 percent of the total. There is nothing strange about the dangerous urban guerrilla warfare that dominates the narrow streets of Gaza.”