Was the Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza hit by Israeli fire? Was he the victim of a faulty rocket fired from the Palestinian side? Were dozens or hundreds of civilians killed? Analysts interviewed by AFP at the end of the week did not definitively rule out any scenario after this tragedy on Tuesday evening, for which Israel and Hamas deny each other responsibility.
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But the experts interviewed by AFP are fundamentally skeptical about the hypothesis of a classic air strike, such as the one carried out by the Israeli army on Gaza in retaliation for the attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement on Israel on October 7th.
An analysis by the French Military Intelligence Service (DRM), confirmed on Friday evening, estimated that “nothing supports the statement” that it was “an Israeli attack”.
The AFP investigated by interviewing weapons specialists, analyzing authenticated images and comparing them with various available witness statements.
What do the available images show?
A video produced by Gaza-based Qatari broadcaster Al-Jazeera, which AFP was able to authenticate, shows the exact moment an explosion occurred on the grounds of Ahli Arab Hospital at 6:59 p.m. local time on Tuesday. Other videos from surveillance cameras on the Israeli side also show this scene.
This viral video shows the launch of a glowing projectile into the sky, which suddenly disappears in mid-flight in a large flash. Less than 10 seconds later, two explosions occurred on the ground, including one in the grounds of this hospital in northern Gaza, AFP was able to confirm using geolocation tools.
Footage from the northern Gaza Strip was released this evening that may appear to show that a rocket fired by Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip exploded for an unknown reason, causing debris to rain down, leading to the explosion and subsequent fire in Al-Ahli Arabi… pic.twitter.com/3qVdzkW3aV
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023
Other videos broadcast online after the explosion and authenticated by AFP show several burning cars in a parking lot in the center of the hospital, a pile of rubble on the ground and a large number of bodies lying in the countryside, including several Children.
Videos taken at the hospital by AFP the next day show charred cars in the parking lot. There was a lawn next to the parking lot that was littered with clothing and personal items and stained with blood in places, indicating people were camping there. There are also numerous broken windows in the surrounding buildings. And there are likely signs of the impact on the ground, including at least one small crater.
According to Gaza authorities, there were hundreds of wounded and sick people at the site, as well as civilians who had sought refuge there.
“We were operating, there was a loud explosion and the ceiling fell on the operating room. “It’s a massacre,” said Dr. Ghassan Abu Sittah from the NGO Doctors Without Borders.
“People were scattered outside in the gardens and under the trees. Suddenly everything went black, there were bodies and blood everywhere,” Mohammed Qriq, a Gaza resident, told AFP.
“We came here (to the hospital) for fear of bombings. We felt a rocket hit, the whole place was bombed. We headed to other places nearby. “The bodies were dismembered, old people, children, women,” said Waleed, another resident.
What possible causes?
Internet users are arguing on social networks about the cause of the explosion. Some defend the Israeli theory of a defective rocket fired from Gaza whose debris fell on the hospital, others question an Israeli Air Force attack.
Analysts polled by AFP remain cautious and do not rule out any scenario definitively. However, they consider it unlikely that this tragedy would be a classic Israeli attack. They expressed particular surprise at the limited damage to the buildings surrounding the parking lot and noted the absence of a large crater such as certain Israeli weapons could cause.
“It is difficult to establish a connection between the strong explosion on the ground (visible in the Al Jazeera video, editor’s note) and the minor damage observed in the hospital. It looks like the hospital itself was not affected,” emphasizes Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), pointing out that most of the damage observed occurred in the parking lot, adjacent lawns and building facades were recorded.
However, at this point, very few images show the interior of the buildings.
AFP
“The most likely hypothesis is the impact of a projectile on the cars located there and an explosion of the gasoline tank of several of these cars,” analyzes the researcher who specializes in geopolitics and military forces in the Middle East.
For his part, Joseph Henrotin estimates that the visible damage “is consistent with the hypothesis of engine parts, for example of a rocket, falling in a ballistic orientation, ejecting debris, setting materials on fire and creating an explosion effect.” , editor-in-chief of the magazine Defense and International Security (DSI).
“There is damage to the buildings. We see torn tiles, broken windows in the hospital and holes in the walls. However, “no building is hit directly,” whereas “if you target a building with the ammunition and targeting capabilities available to the Israelis, you will usually hit that building,” this expert explains. According to him, the impact zones are characterized by “very small craters (…). “What exploded there is not huge” and “does not correspond to the weapons used by the Israelis.”
“The crater visible on the ground is not very large. For me it is not a bomb dropped from an airplane, but rather a mortar or something similar,” emphasizes a French military official, a good expert on explosives, who did not want to be identified.
AFP
“There are quite a few missiles that have launch incidents,” a senior European intelligence official told AFP on Wednesday evening. “Israel probably did not do this,” according to the “serious evidence” from intelligence agencies available to its services.
“Military-grade equipment would have done infinitely more damage. We see it when Israel bombs, it destroys buildings with a single blow,” analyzes Xavier Tytelman, aviation defense consultant and digital editor-in-chief of Air et Cosmos magazine.
Could the hospital parking lot then have been the target of a voluntary or involuntary firing by the Israeli army? “Even if it was a mistake and they aimed there accidentally, there is no Israeli bomb that can do that. The effect of a JDAM bomb (using GPS guidance, editor’s note) is incomparable to what we saw there,” Mr. Tytelman said.
Could smaller ammunition have been used? For example, a micromunition dropped by a drone, a cannon shot from an airplane or a rocket shot from a helicopter? Without completely ruling out such scenarios, the analysts interviewed by AFP consider them to be incompatible with the available footage and therefore unlikely.
Mutual accusations
Regardless, Palestinians and Israelis blame each other for the shooting.
“There was no army fire from land, sea or air that hit the hospital,” Israeli army spokesman General Daniel Hagari told the press. Maps and an audio recording were released depicting a conversation between two Hamas members about the issue. Islamic Jihad, another armed group active in the Gaza Strip, is responsible.
He previously backtracked shortly afterwards, claiming he had based his message on “false” press articles.
An Israeli army spokesman, Jonathan Conricus, reiterated in recent days that it was “not an Israeli bomb, as no crater can be seen in the photos.”
Islamic Jihad on Wednesday called those allegations “lies” and said the tragedy was caused by a bomb dropped by an Israeli army plane.
“This terrible massacre was carried out with the help of an American military arsenal that only the occupier (Israel, editor’s note) has,” Hamas said on Wednesday.
Number of victims uncertain
AFP photos and videos show dozens of bodies in sheets, blankets or body bags.
AFP
According to Hamas, the explosion killed at least 471 people displaced by the conflict who had sought refuge in the hospital grounds.
A senior European intelligence official in an interview with AFP estimated the death toll from that attack at “several dozen.”
An American intelligence report, excerpts of which AFP was able to obtain on Thursday, puts the death toll “probably at the lower end of a range between 100 and 300.”