The war between Israel and Hamas, which is heading towards the Red Sea, is beginning to disrupt global trade. In response to attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the region, British oil giant BP announced on Monday, December 18, that it would suspend all transit across the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Four of the world's five largest shipping companies, namely France's CMA CGM, Denmark's Maersk, Italian-Swiss MSC and Germany's Hapag-Lloyd, made a similar decision over the weekend. Backed by Iran, the Houthis have warned that they will target any ship with ties to Israel in response to the bombing of Gaza.
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On Saturday, a US destroyer shot down more than a dozen drones that had taken off from rebel-held areas in Yemen in the Red Sea. On Monday, the Norwegian owner of the Swan-Atlantic announced that his ship had been attacked by an “unidentified object,” causing a fire that was quickly brought under control. “Attacks on commercial vessels in the region are alarming and pose a significant threat to the safety of seafarers,” Maersk said in a statement released on Tuesday, December 19, at the same time as CMA CGM announced that it was removing some of its vessels redirected towards the southern tip of Africa.
At just 27 kilometers wide, the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, through which two-thirds of European imports flow, is an important sea route for world trade. Some of the stranded ships are lying at the entrance to the Red Sea and are waiting for the situation to improve. Each day of decommissioning costs their shipowner between 400,000 and 600,000 dollars (between 365,000 and 548,000 euros). Others headed to the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, shortening the journey from Shanghai to Rotterdam from an average of 35 days to 45 days.
“Shipping companies save on Suez Canal tolls, which can be up to $600,000 per ship, but have to spend more because of longer journeys, including on fuel to increase speed and compensate for delays,” explains Pierre Cariou, professor at the Kedge Business School (Bordeaux). ) and specialist in sea transport. According to estimates, bypassing the Suez Canal would result in additional costs of between 5 and 10%.
Supply disruptions
With this new route, ships will no longer call at ports on the Mediterranean, from Port Said (Egypt) to Marseille via Genoa (Italy), which could disrupt the transport of goods in this region. This bypass also punishes Egypt, a country in crisis that derives much of its revenue from Suez Canal tolls, which reached $9.4 billion in 2022, or 10% of its annual budget.
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