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Six weeks into the writers’ strike, the early returns of summer studio films were among the best since Covid brought exhibitions to a complete halt. But if SAG-AFTRA members trade lines of dialogue for pickets starting July 1, the deal could well look like a pandemic redux.
The domestic box office is just getting back on its feet, approaching $4 billion this year, up 30% from the same period last year from January through early June. Theatrical release dates have once again become coveted commodities, generating millions of dollars in revenue and lubricating film downstream revenues. And theater has reclaimed the limelight stolen by streamers during the Covid lockdown.
But what happens to the summer and fall film schedule and their release dates, film and television production starts, and carefully timed Emmy campaigns when there are no actors promoting their films and making new films?
Here is the sobering reality: In a statement to Deadline, SAG-AFTRA tells us: “During a strike there will be no promotion of the strike work.” of a strike.”
The Writers Guild has coerced other guild members not to cross the picket lines during the strike, which is nearing its 40th day, and this awkward situation has caused films like Unstoppable, which stars Jennifer Lopez, to stall were brought. And just a day ago (as Deadline exclusively revealed), Netflix told the cast and crew of the Robert De Niro series “Zero Day” to go home and stay there until the fall to avoid closures. This follows the closure of Lionsgate’s Keanu Reeves picture Good Fortune, Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts and a few others. It remains to be seen how many others will pause preemptively.
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The city takes it all very seriously.
Cillian Murphy in “Oppenheimer” Universal
Releases due out in the next two months will not necessarily be affected, such as Tom Cruise’s “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1” (July 12), Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” and the Margot Robbie-Ryan Gosling- Movie “Barbie” (both July 21). Millions have already been spent on long lead marketing for many tentpoles. But the unavailability of movie stars for the next batch of films makes any release a risk, not only in the US but also at the foreign box office, where talent is crucial to making a splash.
In several in-depth conversations with studio executives, we hear studios are taking the risk and maintaining their 2023 theatrical release plans, even if the actors were to go on strike for only a short time, or even for months. So far, no changes to the release date are expected; Studio marketers, unable to find stars on late-night talk shows that wrap up when the writers roll by anyway, will whistle by the graveyard and rely on trailers and TV spots to get their films apply. But if the earnings of some of these films are cut, will a holiday like Warner Bros./DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom delay the release?
“Killers of the Flower Moon” apple
And what about award-winning films like Apple Original Films/Paramount’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which caused a storm when it premiered in Cannes, but the star power of Martin Scorsese, Leonardo DiCaprio and De Niro and the revelation that Lily Gladstone has proven itself, needs? be? Films screened at fall film festivals will also have their performance reduced in the event of an actors’ strike.
Popcorn images prepared to be released are scheduled for the first quarter of 2024. Recent titles on the calendar include Lionsgate’s Dirty Dancing sequel, Sony’s Madame Web, Warner Bros. mafia film Wise Guys and Universal’s The Fall Guy. Films in this space are likely to see reshoots or ADR in the near future, and an actors’ strike would cause further delays.
Some fear a prolonged WGA strike deep into fall will upend the second half of the 2024 theatrical release schedule, particularly for larger tentpole films. However, animated films and low-budget horror titles should be in prime condition for release.
Keanu Reeves brings a spark of joy to Comic-Con, which returned in person last year, with a look at the trailer for John Wick Chapter 4.
The most immediate place a possible SAG-AFTRA strike will be felt is at San Diego Comic-Con, which takes place July 19-23. The WGA strike is already preventing TV makers from traveling there and attending panels. The prospect of a starless geek fest would doom a conference that draws 135,000 attendees annually and which only returned fully to an in-person event last year after a two-year Covid hiatus. Many studios and networks are waiting to see how they will present shows and films. Some like HBO are skipping the series due to no immediate fanboy series on the horizon. At the very least, a filmmaker or producer with footage can go to Hall H to show off.
A Comic-Con spokesperson told Deadline, “As for the strike and its potential impact on Comic-Con, we tend to refrain from speculating or forecasting. I want to say that we hope for a quick resolution that benefits everyone involved and allows everyone to continue the work they love. Until then, we continue to work diligently on our summer event in hopes of making it as fun, educational and celebratory as in years past.”
Jason Sudeikis accepts the award for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for “Ted Lasso” onstage during the 74th Primetime Emmys (Photo by Kevin Mazur/WireImage)
With the WGA strike, things also look bleak this summer: the Television Critics Association press tour. However, Deadline understands that the announcement of the nominations for the Primetime Emmys, scheduled for July 12, is in no danger of being delayed. Meanwhile, TV Academy has set September 9th and 10th for the Creative Emmy Awards and Monday, September 18th for the Primetime Emmy Awards. Whether these ceremonies will be shortened or postponed due to ongoing guild strikes depends on how the industry fares in August.
Meanwhile, many studios are already taking precautions in the event of a SAG-AFTRA strike, meaning dates for movies like Barbie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and the premiere of Mission: Impossible have been pushed back to this month – Dead Reckoning Part 1 will take place in Rome on June 19th. Many studios have already included press materials featuring talent that can be used to promote summer releases on social media. The notion that the July 21 duel between Barbie and Oppenheimer would be postponed due to a SAG strike is out of the question given that millions in marketing dollars have already been allocated and it would be even more costly to postpone them. In the worst case, premieres in July could be canceled, according to sources.
Margot Robbie in Barbie Warner Bros.
Currently, Oppenheimer’s junket is slated for early July, starring Cillian Murphy, Matt Damon, Emily Blunt and Robert Downey Jr., among others. Even if a strike leaves out the cast, many point out that director Christopher Nolan, since the DGA has already negotiated a contract with the AMPTP, remains an important selling point.
One possibility worrying some studio marketing executives is that there could be a grace period for SAG-AFTRA members in July, allowing actors to potentially work on and promote projects, provided talks go smoothly get lost. Despite the union’s vote this week to authorize a strike, it’s not necessarily a 100 per cent walkout the day after the contract expires on June 30, as the WGA did pencil-lowered on May 1st.
Despite SAG-AFTRA’s statement of support for projects, several representatives and studio insiders tell us that they were not directly informed by the guild about the rules of conduct in the event of a strike. As we near June 30, representatives expect to learn more about what actors can and can’t do.
Studios may save some marketing costs by not having an actor travel the globe for a film, but changing the release date would be too much for any studio and the exhibition sector now that Covid has turned business upside down.
“You don’t want to remove yourself from the release calendar,” says a studio insider. “We are all equally paralyzed by this.”
David Robb contributed to this report.