WASHINGTON (AP) – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week underscored China’s aspirations for a bigger role on the world stage. But they also revealed the dangers of global diplomacy: hours after the trip was announced on Friday, an international war crimes warrant was issued for Putin’s arrest, taking at least some wind out of China’s big revelation.
The spate of developments – which followed China’s brokering of a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations and the release of a so-called “peace plan” for Ukraine – came as the Biden administration watched Beijing’s moves to become more assertive in international affairs.
US officials initially did not comment publicly on the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Putin in The Hague, but privately expressed satisfaction that an international body agreed with Washington’s assessment that Russia had committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
The Biden administration believes China’s desire to be seen as a mediator for peace between Russia and Ukraine may be viewed more critically after Putin is officially suspected of being a war criminal, according to two US officials. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said the government hoped the warrants would help mobilize previously neutral countries to get involved in the conflict.
A look at the Xi-Putin meeting and how it could be affected by the arrest warrant.
WHAT IS THE MEANING OF THE XI. MEETING WITH PUTIN:
The visit to Russia will be Xi’s first trip abroad since he was elected to an unprecedented third term as China’s president. It comes as Beijing and Moscow have deepened ties in steps that began just before Russia invaded Ukraine with a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing during last year’s Winter Olympics, where they declared a partnership without borders .
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Since then, China has repeatedly sided with Russia to block international action against Moscow over the Ukraine conflict, and US officials say it is considering supplying Russia with arms to support the war. But she has also tried to cast herself into a more neutral role by offering a peace plan that has been essentially ignored.
The Moscow meeting is likely to see both sides reaffirm their partnership, which both see as crucial to countering what they see as improper and undeserved influence by the US and its Western allies.
WHAT IS THE MEANING OF THE ICC ARREST WARRANT FOR PUTIN?
In the short term, the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Putin and one of his associates is unlikely to have much impact on the meeting or China’s position toward Russia. Neither China nor Russia – nor the United States or Ukraine – have ratified the founding treaty of the ICC. The US, beginning with the Clinton administration, has refused to join the court over concerns that its broad mandate could lead to the prosecution of American troops or officials.
This means that none of the four countries formally recognizes the court’s jurisdiction or is bound by its orders, although Ukraine has agreed to allow some ICC investigations into crimes on its territory and the US has cooperated with ICC investigations.
Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that Putin would travel to a country bound by obligations to the ICC. If so, it is questionable whether this country would actually arrest him. There is precedent for the previously accused, most notably former Sudanese President Omar Bashir, to have visited members of the ICC without being arrested.
However, the warrant’s stain could work against China and Russia in the court of public opinion, and Putin’s international status could be jeopardized if the charges are not dropped or he is acquitted.
THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON:
Though wary of directly discussing the ICC arrest warrants, US officials have not minced their words when it comes to Xi’s planned visit to Moscow. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called Beijing’s push for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine a “ratification of Russian conquest” and warned that the Russians could use a ceasefire to regroup their positions “so that they can resume attacks on Ukraine at a time of their choosing.”
“We do not believe this is a step towards a just, lasting peace,” he said. President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan this week urged Xi to also speak to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the Ukrainian leader has also expressed an interest in talks with Xi.
THE VIEW FROM Kyiv:
Ahead of the unveiling of the ICC arrest warrant, Ukrainian analysts warned against falling into a possible trap ahead of the Xi-Putin meeting. “We must be clear that such peace talks are a trap for Ukraine and its diplomatic corps,” said Yurii Poita, who heads the Asia section of the Kiev-based New Geopolitics Research Network.
“Under such conditions, these peace talks will not be focused on peace,” said Nataliia Butyrska, a Ukrainian East Asia policy analyst. She said the visit reflects not so much China’s desire for peace as its desire to play an important role in an eventual post-conflict settlement.
“China does not make a clear distinction between aggressor and victim. And when a country starts its peacekeeping activities or at least tries to help the parties, non-distinction will affect objectivity,” Butyrska said. “From my point of view, China is trying to freeze the conflict.”
THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW:
Even if China does not provide Russia with military aid, as the US and its allies fear, Moscow sees Xi’s visit as a strong signal of Chinese support, challenging Western efforts to isolate Russia and deal crippling blows to its economy.
Kremlin spokesman Yuri Ushakov noted that Putin and Xi have “very special friendly and trusting personal ties” and welcomed Beijing’s peace plan. “We appreciate the Chinese leadership’s cautious, balanced position on this issue,” Ushakov said.
Observers say that despite China’s acting as a mediator, its refusal to condemn the Russian action leaves no doubt as to where Beijing’s sympathies lie.
“The Chinese peace plan is a fig leaf to deflect some Western criticism of Russia’s support,” said Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The optics it creates is that China has a peace plan, both warring factions approved of it and were willing to explore the possibilities, and then it was killed by the hostile West.”
THE VIEW FROM BEIJING:
Chinese officials are bragging about their newfound influence in the international arena as their country’s foreign policy has become increasingly assertive under Xi.
Announcing Xi’s visit, China’s foreign ministry said Beijing’s ties with Moscow are a major world power. “As the world enters a new period of turmoil and change, the importance and impact of China-Russia relations as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and as a major power extends far beyond the bilateral framework,” it said.
It called the visit “a journey of friendship that further deepens mutual trust and understanding between China and Russia, and solidifies the political foundation and the public opinion foundation of the friendship between the two peoples for generations.”
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Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Washington and Hanna Arhirova in Kiev contributed to this report.