How bad will California’s wildfire season be this year?

When the rain hit California in October, many breathed a sigh of relief: at least in some parts of the state, the worst fire season, according to experts, is likely already behind.

However, there was little rainfall the following month. It rained again in December break records. Now parts of the state have not had a drop of water since early January.

“It’s been an unusually dry and unusually wet winter,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA and conservation organizations.

But what do these ups and downs mean for the next California fire season? The answer is complex.

Until October, the vast majority of California was considered to be in a state of “exceptional” or “extreme” drought (the highest rating, according to the US Drought Monitor). So when meteorological conditions known as “atmospheric rivers” flooded parts of the state in October and December, much of that water was absorbed into the scorched landscape.

The ensuing hot and windy conditions also caused the rain to evaporate quickly, drying out the vegetation that fuels the fires. California’s rising snowpack, which provides moisture to the ecosystem as it melts in the spring, has since fallen sharply.

Historically, the fire season in California lasted for several months during the hottest time of the year. But recently it has become more year-round.

In January, usually one of California’s wettest months, a wildfire engulfed Big Sur, a mountainous coastal region south of San Francisco, forcing hundreds of residents to evacuate. The scene was “quite surreal” given California’s wet October and December, the National Weather Service tweeted at the time.

But while extreme rainfall and drought can lead to near-normal rainfall, it’s no fire insurance, scientists say. As global temperatures rise, even in wet years, hot weather can eventually dry out vegetation, creating drought-like conditions.

“We still have dry and wet years, but we don’t really have cold years anymore,” Swain said. He added: “Despite everything, everything still dries up.”

For now, the drought has a little silver lining.

The lack of rain gives fire departments more room to carry out prescribed fires, which help reduce the worst effects of summer fires. And fires that spontaneously ignite during these colder months are also likely to be less intense and can help prevent more serious fires in hot, dry conditions.

But if there is no rain in the coming days or weeks, the state could plunge back into drought. Last year, historically low rainfall and continued drought led to a brutal fire season that lasted several months and burned 2.6 million acres of land.

“I don’t think March will do us any good,” Swain said of the likelihood that heavy rains in the coming weeks will help prevent major fires this year.

“Almost every year we see bad fire years,” he added.

For more:

Livia Albek-Ripka is a California reporter for The New York Times.

  • Sacramento shooting: A man believed to be meeting his three children for a church visit near Sacramento on Monday afternoon fatally shot and killed the children and accompanying adult.

  • Medicaid extension: California makes it easier for older residents to qualify for health insurance through Medicaid.

  • Russian sale: According to the Associated Press, state lawmakers plan to pass legislation to get rid of Russian investments in California.

  • Obituary: Richard Bloom, former chairman of the board of trustees of the University of California and husband of Senator Dianna Feinstein, died Sunday after a long battle with cancer. He was 86 years old.

  • State pension: CalPERS adds the biggest increase in the cost of living to retirees’ pensions in more than 30 years due to high inflation, reports The Sacramento Bee.

  • Victim Compensation: California’s compensation board’s cut in crime victim compensation has raised questions about gaps in the program, The Guardian reported.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

  • The oil company sues: A Houston oil company is suing those they say failed to stop a leak from an underwater pipeline off the coast of Orange County, the Associated Press reported.

CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

  • Rare chamomile against the backdrop of a gold mine: The Inyo mountain daisy, which grows only in rock crevices in the south of the Inyo Mountains, could be threatened by gold mining, according to The Los Angeles Times.

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

  • Chesa Buden: The New York Times magazine spoke with San Francisco Attorney General Chesa Budin, who is up for re-election. Read the interview.

  • Mask mandate upheld: San Francisco will keep the school mask requirement despite the state’s decision to scrap the rule, reports The San Francisco Chronicle.

  • Auckland parklets: The Oakland City Council will vote today to extend a program to allow outdoor parks and street cafes, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.

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Homes in California for $1.5 million.

Thai curry with silky tofu and herbs.

Today’s travel tip comes from Jim Palmer, who recommends the Griffith Observatory in Los Angeles:

“Not only the sci-fi look of the 1930s, but also many old things like the Tesla coil, which has always delighted children with its lightning at the push of a button. I am 85 years old and I still remember a day trip to the planetarium when I was in high school in Long Beach. As an up-and-coming engineer, this was and still is my favorite place anywhere.”

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Send your suggestions to [email protected]. We will report more in future editions of the newsletter.

During their wedding in Oakland last year, Abram Jackson and Julius Crowe Hampton jumped off a broomstick.

The tradition was popularized among black couples before the Civil War, when enslaved Africans were generally not legally allowed to marry. It has since come to mean sweeping away the old and welcoming the new, The Times recently reported.

For his recent wedding, Hampton bought a cinnamon broom from Trader Joe’s and adorned it with mustard and sage-colored fabric, as well as sprigs of dried lavender and eucalyptus.

“Jumping off a broom was the most transcendent experience of my life,” said Hampton, 34, an elementary school teacher. “I felt as if my ancestors were encouraging me as we took this great leap of faith that our friends, family and community witnessed.”

“Jumping off a broom as two weirdo blacks in love,” he added, “is an experience “that we will cherish forever.”