The conflagration sparked by Hamas’ attack on Israel is already causing great suffering. Several elements suggest that only the beginning of a conflict will lead to much more violence. It is likely to develop on several fronts.
The invasion of Gaza appears imminent, and the West Bank is a hotbed of protests and deadly repression. Low-intensity exchanges of fire are already taking place between Hezbollah and Israel, US forces are under attack in Syria and Iraq, while American aircraft carriers stationed in the Mediterranean are intercepting missiles from Yemen. The specters of Islamic terrorism, anti-Semitism and Islamophobia are haunting many societies.
Here’s a look at six possible scenarios for how the conflict could develop.
The invasion of Gaza
The first step in the dreaded escalation. In response to the October 7 attack, Israel declared its intention to destroy Hamas. The readiness of its forces and the messages of its politicians clearly indicate a willingness to invade Gaza.
Given Gaza’s urban conditions and Hamas’ preparedness and ruthlessness in such a scenario, this is a highly complex military operation. It is rational to fear enormous human suffering. These circumstances would undoubtedly trigger a new wave of global outrage – particularly in the Arab world, where the streets are already full of protests – and increase pressure on other actors to intervene in the conflict.
The second front: Hezbollah
This is the main danger of war escalation. The Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militia party has a large missile arsenal. Experts believe the likelihood of an all-out front in this sector is high and exchanges of fire are already taking place, although not of high intensity.
The United States and other Western countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon. Israel evacuates villages in the north of the country. The presence of Hezbollah units and pro-Iranian militias in Syria also raises concerns that if this front breaks out, Israel could also be attacked from Syrian territory.
Lebanon has been in dire economic and social crisis for years, and it is likely that a large part of Lebanese society hopes that war will not add to its difficulties. But Hezbollah follows a logic alien to the national interest, and the country’s government and armed forces are unable to control it.
US involvement
Since the Hamas attack on October 7, US forces stationed in the region have been attacked several times. A drone attacked US troops in Syria on Wednesday. Two US military bases were attacked in Iraq on Thursday. Also on Thursday, a Washington ship in the Red Sea intercepted 19 missiles fired from Yemen in the north.
The incidents are evidence of the risk of regional escalation in areas where Iranian-backed militias are present. Not just Hezbollah in Lebanon, but also other groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Despite the complete withdrawal from Afghanistan and the almost complete withdrawal from Iraq, the United States still had around 30,000 military personnel and enormous resources in the region. After the attack on Israel, it increased its efforts. The aircraft carrier Gerald Ford is already in the eastern Mediterranean, and the Dwight Eisenhower is expected to arrive there soon. The country has also bolstered its air force at land bases, deployed a unit of 2,200 Marines to the region and kept others on standby for rapid deployment.
The maneuvers clearly serve as a military deterrent. It remains to be seen how the US would react in the event of an escalation. Meanwhile, the State Department has issued an extraordinary global alert for its citizens worldwide.
A woman with stones in her hands during a clash between Palestinians and Israeli forces at the northern entrance to Ramallah (West Bank) on October 20.ALAA BADARNEH (EFE)
Violence in the West Bank
Israel’s response to the Hamas attack has already led to large protests and outbreaks of violence. At least eight Palestinians were killed in clashes with Israeli forces on Thursday alone.
Some define this as the potential third front (alongside Gaza and Hezbollah). Of course it has different properties; It is not conventional warfare. The Palestinian Authority has renounced violence as a means of achieving its political goals.
But West Bank society is outraged by the endless subjugation of occupation and colonization and by the scenes of suffering that the Israeli response has caused in Gaza. Palestinian political power is discredited and has very serious limitations. An intifada-style uprising could occur and extremist cells could take advantage of the situation. Polls indicate growing social support for the idea of armed struggle.
Even before the current crisis, the situation was extremely tense. So far this year, as of October 7, around 220 Palestinians have been killed in violence, largely linked to the presence of Israeli settlers. According to UN figures, around 29 Israelis were killed during the same period.
Islamic terrorism and anti-Semitism
Another potential risk related to the crisis is the resurgence of Islamic terrorism. They could start targeting Western countries that support Israel.
There has been heightened alert in France in recent days, particularly after the murder of high school teacher Dominique Bernard, who was the victim of a knife attack by Russian-Chechen Islamist Mohamed Mogouchkov. The country has also been hit by numerous false terrorist threats, leading, for example, to the Louvre Museum and the Palace of Versailles being evacuated and temporarily closed. A terrorist murdered two Swedish citizens in Belgium. Many Western countries have increased the state of alert and police operations are underway.
In parallel, Israel’s military actions in response to the Hamas attack, seen by many as disproportionate and causing unbearable suffering to the civilian population, threaten to fuel anti-Semitism. London police reported on Friday that 218 cases of anti-Semitism have been recorded in the British capital so far this month, compared to 15 in the same period last year. This week two Molotov cocktails were thrown at a synagogue in Berlin. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau condemned a sharp increase in anti-Semitic attacks in his country in recent days.
Islamophobia
At the same time, the spiral of tension can also fuel Islamophobia, a mood that is widespread in Western societies and on the fringes of which emerging right-wing extremist formations operate. The aforementioned London Police report on anti-Semitism also found a rise in Islamophobia, with 101 cases compared to 42 in the same period last year. An American Muslim civil society organization moved its annual conference to an undisclosed location this week due to threats. And a six-year-old Palestinian-American child was killed in an anti-Muslim attack in Illinois, US, last week
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