How can the war in Ukraine end? Five factors will shape the result

Although predictions are almost impossible, military strategists are focusing on several factors to provide evidence, including the deployment of armies on the ground and the impact of sanctions.

One thing that is becoming clear is that the performance of the Russian military so far gives Mr Putin a test of reality and potentially distorts the scope of the results. “Every day, Ukrainians don’t lose, they win politically,” said Michael Clark, former director of the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. “And the political cost to him is rising every day.”

Lawrence Friedman, an honorary professor of military research at King’s College London, does not think the Russians will be able to set up a puppet government in Ukraine. “They can’t occupy the whole country,” he said. “A puppet government in Kyiv that is not backed by Russian weapons will have no legitimacy and will not survive. he said.

This will probably make it difficult for Putin to declare a convincing victory. James Sher, a senior fellow at the Estonian Institute of Foreign Affairs, predicts that Mr Putin will not take the rational step of deviation from the ramp, but will “double up”.

Here are five variables that military analysts could use to determine the course of the war:

Invading forces

Western military analysts have been shocked at how poorly Russian forces performed in the early days of the invasion. They expected that the army, which had been modernized for more than a decade, would quell the first phase of Ukrainian resistance quite easily.

But Russia has not undertaken a military operation combining different branches of the army since the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, and it has not been so complicated.

“We are all amazed that this new Russian army looks like the old Red Army – not very well trained, not very well commanded, with really bad logistics – which implies either a major planning failure or … a great underestimation of the enemy.” said Mr Clark, former director of the Royal United Services Institute.

Russia’s air force, navy and nuclear forces have been partially or completely modernized, he said, but the army looks as if it has not overcome past weaknesses.

“The Russians will learn,” said Richard Shearef, Britain’s former deputy military commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “They will learn the hard way by being killed that they will have to coordinate their attack with all the weapons in a much more professional way than they have done so far,” he said, given their ability to combine different elements of the operation.

It is possible that Moscow deliberately limited its campaign at the beginning of the war, expecting significantly less resistance than it encountered. He can continue with this tactic, expecting to eventually exhaust the opposition.

The more likely scenario, according to some military analysts, is for the Russians to use significantly more firepower to penetrate further into Ukraine by besieging cities or using heavy weapons against them.

“This will lead Putin to attack, to become really vicious, to use indiscriminate fire and massive artillery in urban areas and to level Ukrainian cities, and the consequence will be a terrible cost of human casualties,” General Shiref predicted.

The defending forces

So far, Ukrainian forces have made the most of their military assets in the face of a larger and more advanced adversary.

Russia’s slow progress is “first and foremost a testament to the courage and tenacity of the Ukrainian army and the volunteers who are fighting incredibly impressively and well,” he said. Sheriff. Morality is a huge factor in the war, he said, and Ukrainians believe they have the moral strength.

The stated determination of President Vladimir Zelensky to remain in office has helped sustain the Ukrainian campaign. His appearances on social media – along with videos of resistance from ordinary Ukrainians – have helped Kyiv garner sympathy at home and in the West. However, Russia has already begun attacking mobile phone masts and TV towers to stop the spread of such information.

The longer Ukraine’s official army can last, the more it exacerbates Mr Putin’s problems, military analysts say.

Most analysts believe that the Ukrainian military will sooner or later crack. It struggles with everything it has all the time, without any rest. Russia can continue to strengthen its front line with new troops.

The question is: What then? The common assumption is that Moscow will seek to establish an obedient government in Kyiv, leaving it to rule the western part of the country, while annexing much of the country east of the Dnieper River.

One possibility is for Ukraine’s formal army to melt and start an uprising. Analysts say they expect Western nations to support such a revolt, as the United States has supported resistance to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1970s.

If a strong uprising materializes, Russia may need to deploy many more troops to fight it. Expert estimates of how many troops will be needed to control and occupy rebellious Ukraine number more than 500,000. “Putin does not have this and he will run out of people and this will become a Soviet-Afghan reduction,” said General Shiref.

The Western answer

Western governments have ruled out direct military involvement in Ukraine, including the possibility of a no-fly zone that could bring them into direct conflict with the Russian air force. Instead, they opted for arms supplies to help Ukrainians defend themselves, and increased troop numbers in NATO’s easternmost countries.

Analysts say Russia is likely to seek to close the Ukrainian-Polish border to stop the influx of Western weapons, a move that would increase the risk of escalating the conflict involving NATO countries, of which Poland is one.

The biggest weapon used by Western countries is a set of economic sanctions against the Russian economy and elements of its leadership. The sanctions are aimed at Russia’s central bank, commercial banks and political and business leaders. The Russians are waiting in long lines in front of banks to withdraw currency, and inflation is likely to rise. Many Russians will face economic difficulties.

These sanctions can be increased or decreased depending on Russian actions. They are not without price for the West. They are likely to exacerbate the existing problem of inflation, and if Russia retaliates by cutting off energy supplies, it could lead to a rationing of electricity in Europe.

Mr Sher of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute does not expect these measures to change Mr Putin’s view. “Putin and the people around him, at least the people in politics and security around him, have never worshiped the logic of sanctions,” he said.

At the moment, there seems to be widespread popular support in the West for Ukraine, whose people are seen as victims of unjustified and unprovoked war. This could strengthen the hands of governments in maintaining the measures. Over time, however, such unity may disintegrate in the face of economic difficulties.

Any ambiguous peace imposed on Ukraine by Moscow could prompt the West to discuss how to calibrate any lifting of sanctions. Some could be repealed quickly, but others, such as those against the Russian leadership, may be more difficult in the event of potential war crimes trials.

Analysts say one country that could be more influential on Russia is China, whose leaders are likely worried about the prospect of military escalation.

Russia’s internal reaction

This is a great unknown. Not only is it difficult for Westerners to read Russian opinion, but it is also difficult to understand what effect it has on Moscow’s decision-making, especially on a president who is seen as increasingly isolated and out of touch.

The majority of Russians receive information from censored television programs, so many will believe that the economic difficulties they are experiencing are not the fault of their government, but of the West.

Russian authorities suppressed anti-war demonstrations. There are already some signs of concern among Russia’s elite, whose luxurious lifestyle they have enjoyed in the West is now in jeopardy. Another question is whether Mr. Putin is interested.

“I have no doubt that this is disturbing, even frightening, for some important people in Russia itself,” Mr Cher said.

The economic difficulties that have already arisen undermine one pillar of Mr Putin’s presidency – that he has brought stability to a country that was chaotic in the 1990s under his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin.

In addition, any long campaign against the uprising in Ukraine would cost the lives of many Russian soldiers, a factor that in the past has upset even the conservative sections of the population that usually support Mr Putin.

“Putin does not have an indefinite time to resolve this,” said Friedman of King’s College. “Economic difficulties are only now beginning to be felt. He cannot allow this to drag on for weeks and months, the sieges can last so long, let alone riots. So time is a real problem for him. “

Peace talks

Russia and Ukraine have begun peace talks. Many strategists are pessimistic, they will lead to a quick solution.

Any peace deal with Mr Zelensky could lead to the loss of a face for Mr Putin because he falsely called the Ukrainian administration a group of neo-Nazis. But an agreement with any government that the Russians install will have no legitimacy inside or outside Ukraine.

The variables in the negotiations are on two Russian goals: Ukrainian neutrality and Ukrainian territory.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and is likely to demand Ukraine’s acceptance. It may also seek to absorb further territory east of the Dnieper River.

Russia may try to “break Ukraine apart and leave Western Ukraine alone,” said Angela Stent, a Russian specialist at Georgetown University. But as this would leave a West-oriented government in Kyiv, which Mr Putin had previously described as illegitimate, she said: “It’s hard for me to imagine.”

According to analysts, Russia is more likely to at least seek a constitution for Ukraine that provides significant independence to the eastern part of the country and an effective veto on the actions of the Ukrainian government.

Ukrainians could agree to further elections, but the risk for Russia is that even in the east it did not like the result.

Mr Clark said one model of Ukrainian neutrality that Russia might like was that of Austria in 1955. The Soviets withdrew from Austria in exchange for the constitutional guarantee of neutrality that exists today.

Instead of convincing Ukrainians that neutrality is an attractive option, the invasion is likely to solidify opinion in the opposite direction.

“I do not think that Ukraine will accept that it is helpless after all this,” Mr Friedman said. “They can give some assurances about foreign forces and missiles [but]if I were Ukrainian, I don’t think that would deter me from wanting to join NATO.

Write to Stephen Fiedler at [email protected]