A month into the February 24 invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin faced heavy military casualties and unprecedented sanctions over relatively little progress on the ground.
Now, as Russian forces shelled parts of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and Western leaders began meeting in Brussels to plan further measures to pressure the Russian president, there appear to be signs of fractures in Moscow’s ranks.
A veteran Putin aide, Anatoly Chubais, resigned because of the war and has left Russia with no intention of returning, two sources said. He was the first top official to break with the Kremlin since Putin launched his invasion.
What will go through Putin’s mind in this difficult context? How far will it go? Several Western analysts respond.
More months of war: Control over all of Ukraine
Although invading forces have stalled in some areas and hopes of a quick victory have been dashed by the Ukrainian resistance, analysts could say that a number of factors, including the change of season and even the forthcoming recruitment of Russians, may encourage Putin to do so , to pressure the operation in the coming months.
According to many Western analysts and security sources who spoke to AFP, his ultimate goal remains control of the entire country up to the Polish border.
Blitzkrieg Failure: Negotiated Settlement and Dirty War
But delaying military advances on the ground might embolden him to seek a negotiated settlement in which Russia would solicit small concessions from Kyiv that Moscow could claim as a victory.
One early Kremlin goal that appears to be on hold for now is the immediate ouster of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with calls for regime change now less prominent in Kremlin rhetoric.
“The original plan, which was probably a blitzkrieg to very quickly take control of Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government, didn’t work,” said Marie Dumoulin, director of the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations ( ECFR).
“The most likely outcome now is that Putin will step up his efforts and move to a dirty war strategy to increase the human cost to Ukrainians and force them to surrender,” he added.
The stubborn Ukrainian resistance and the heavy casualties inflicted on Russia which has not disclosed its military casualties for weeks make this war very different from the 2014 Crimean annexation operation and the 2015 intervention in Syria to bolster the regime this country.
Chemical weapons or attack on humanitarian convoys?
Meanwhile, the negotiating channels are open, with Zelenskyy saying he is ready to talk to Putin, delegations holding several rounds of talks in Belarus, and Turkey preparing to step in as a mediator.
According to analysts, Russia could take measures such as using chemical weapons or attacking humanitarian convoys.
Another critical factor will be whether troops from Russia’s ally Belarus enter the war to even the scales on the northern front. “Putin continues to believe that this is not going to continue and that in the end he will get his way regardless of resistance from sheer masses,” said Frederic Charillon, professor of international relations at the University of Clermont Auvergne.
“War of Destruction and Punishment”
However, given the difficulties of the Russian army on the ground and the cascade of sanctions against Russia, “Putin is increasingly moving towards a war of destruction and punishment,” he added.
“The question is not so much what you want to achieve, but how and at what cost, says Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the research company R.Politik and a researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “It will take time, it will cause more problems, but he is convinced he has no choice and that he is on a historic mission” to restore Russian influence.
According to analysts, Russia could take measures such as using chemical weapons or attacking humanitarian convoys.
Territorial claims Russia: control of the territory in southeastern Ukraine?
The minimum territorial demands for Russia along with Ukraine’s withdrawal from NATO are likely to be Ukraine’s recognition of the annexation of Crimea as part of Russia and the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent.
Russia may also be ready to seize control of areas in southeastern Ukraine and in particular the besieged city of Mariupol in order to connect Crimea to Russia by land. His troops could then advance west to the Black Sea port of Odessa.
Zelenskyy said the status of Crimea and proMoscow breakaway states could be discussed, but on the condition that any major changes would have to be put to a referendum, which would likely derail any such idea.
FEW (AFP, Reuters)