THE NEW YORK TIMES Since the day I learned this in 1947, Walter Lippmann has popularized it the term “Cold War” to define the conflict that has arisen between the Soviet Union and that USI thought it would be cool to be able to name a historical period. Since the postwar period is now over, the postwar period into which we have entered must be given a name. So here goes: It’s the era of “That wasn’t in the plan.”
I know, I know, it’s not an easy phrase to formulate and I don’t expect it to stick. But folks, she’s spot on. I came across this by chance on my last trip Ukraine. I spoke to a Ukrainian mother who told me that her social life had been reduced to occasional dinners with friends, birthday parties “and funerals.” After typing the quote into my column, I added my own comment: “That wasn’t in the plan.” Before last year, young Ukrainians had easier access to it European UnionGetting started in tech startups, thinking about studying and deciding whether to go on vacation there Italy or in Spain. And then, like a meteor, this Russian invasion It turned her life upside down overnight.
This Ukrainian woman is not alone. Many people’s plans and many countries’ plans have recently been completely derailed. We have entered the postCold War era, which holds little promise compared to the prosperity, predictability and new opportunities of the postCold War era, which has spanned over 30 years since then The fall of the berlin wall.
There are many reasons for this, but none are more important than the work of four crucial leaders who have one thing in common: They all believe their leadership is essential and are willing to take extreme measures to stay in power for as long as possible to stay .
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks in a video conference on October 4, 2023. Photo: MIKHAIL METZEL / AFP
I’m talking about Wladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump It is Benjamin Netanyahu. These four individuals have each in their own way caused massive disruptions within and outside their country, based solely on their private interests and not on the interests of their people, and have undermined the ability of their nations to function normally in the present and in the future functioning, significantly impaired. carefully for the future.
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Look at Putin. He began his career as a kind of reformer who stabilized the world Russia to Yeltsin and coordinated an economic recovery thanks to rising oil prices.
But then oil revenues stalled, and as Russian academic Leon Aron describes in his forthcoming book, “Riding the Tiger: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the Uses of War,” Putin made a major Uturn at the start of his third term as president 2012, after The largest antiPutin protests of his government are breaking out in 100 Russian cities and the economy is stagnating. Putin’s solution: “Shift the basis of his regime’s legitimacy from economic progress to militarized patriotism,” Aron told me, blaming the West and expansion for all the difficulties NATO.
In doing so, the Russian president turned his country into a besieged fortress that, according to his thinking and propaganda, only Putin can defend. His invasion of Ukraine to restore the mythical Russian motherland was inevitable.
The events in China have also developed in quite unexpected ways recently. Having continually opened up and relaxed internal controls since 1978 and become more predictable, stable and prosperous than ever before in modern history, China has undergone a nearly 180degree turnaround under President Xi: He has abolished term limits the respected by his predecessors prevented the rise of a new Mao and became president for an indefinite period. Xi apparently believed that the Chinese Communist Party lost control leading to widespread corruption and therefore asserted its power at all levels of society and business while eliminating all competitors.
Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a toast to the 74th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, People’s Congress, Beijing, September 28, 2023. Photo: AP Photo/Andy Wong, Pool
This has made China a more closed country than at any time since Mao’s time Added to this was the sudden disappearance of defense and foreign ministers and sparked rumors that the world may have already seen the peak of China’s economic potential, which could amount to an earthquake in the global economy.
It was certainly not my intention to stop writing after nearly a lifetime of following conflict between the two Israel with external enemies, that the greatest threat to Jewish democracy today is an internal enemy a Coup in the judiciary led by Netanyahu which fragments society and the Israeli armed forces.
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Former Israeli Defense Ministry director general Dan Harel said at a prodemocracy rally in Tel Aviv last week: “I have never seen our national security in such a bad state” and that “damage to units in the reserve is essential.” “There were formations of the armed forces that reduced readiness and operational capability.”
And this problem is not a small one for the USA. Over the past 50 years, the State of Israel has been both a key ally and a virtual forward base in the region where Washington exercised its power without the use of American troops. Israel destroyed early attempts to do so Iraq It is Syria become nuclear powers. Israel is currently the greatest counterweight to the expansion of US power will across the entire region.
But if we have three more years of this extremist Netanyahu government intent on annexing the West Bank and ruling the Palestinians living there with an apartheidlike system, the Jewish state could become a major source of instability in the region. not of stability and a much more uncertain ally more like Turkey and less like Israel before.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks about Israel’s inclusion in the EUS visa program, Jerusalem, September 28, 2023. Photo: CHAIM GOLDBERG / AFP
It’s because? In a recent Times profile of Bibi, Ruth Margalit quoted Ze’ev Elkin, a former minister in Netanyahu’s Likud cabinet, describing the prime minister: “He started with a worldview that said, ‘I am the best leader for Israel.’ ‘right.’Now’; which gradually morphed into a worldview that says, “The worst thing that can happen to Israel is that I stop leading the country, and therefore my survival justifies everything.”
It goes without saying after witnessing it Donald Trump’s attempt to undo our 2020 election inspire a mob to do so storm the Capitol on January 6, 2021 and see how the same man becomes the main Republican presidential candidate in 2024, that our next election will be one of the most important of all unless it is our last. That wasn’t in the plans.
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The common denominator that unites these four leaders is that they all broke the rules of their countries’ game for a very wellknown reason: to stay in power. Putin also started a war abroad with the same goal. And their local systems—the Russian elite, the Chinese Communist Party, the Israeli electorate, and the Republican Party—were unable to fully contain them.
But there are also important differences between the four. Netanyahu and Trump face resistance in their democracies, where voters can still expel or impeach both — and neither has started a war. Xi is an autocrat, but he is intent on improving the lives of his people and plans to dominate the major industries of the 21st century, from biotechnology to artificial intelligence. But its increasingly tough government could be the very thing stopping China from getting there, especially as that iron fist leads to a brain drain.
Putin is nothing more than a mafia boss disguised as a president. He will be remembered for transforming Russia from a scientific powerhouse that launched the first satellite into orbit in 1957 to a country no longer capable of making a car, a watch or a toaster that anyone could would buy outside the country. Putin had to dial 0800 NORTH KOREA to beg for help for his devastated army in Ukraine.
Donald Trump speaks to his supporters at a rally in Iowa on September 20, 2023. Photo: Washington Post /Jabin Botsford
Ultimately, Trump is the most dangerous of the quartet and for one simple reason: When the world becomes so chaotic and such important countries go against plans, the rest of the world depends on the US to take the lead, contain the problems and resist Troublemaker.
But Trump prefers to ignore problems and praise troublemakers, including Putin. This is what makes the prospect of another Trump presidency so frightening, senseless and unimaginable.
Because the USA is still the pillar of the world. We don’t always do it wisely, but if we stop doing it altogether, we should be on our guard. If we fail, given what is already happening in these three other important countries, we will create a world in which no one will be able to make plans.
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There is a simple name for this period: Age of Disorder. / TRANSLATION BY GUILHERME RUSSO