German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (centre) and Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch (left) next to a turbine for the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in Muelheim, Germany, August 3, 2022. BERND THISSEN/PA
Germany will not be able to rely on gas from Qatar. The market, which Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck believed he had held up during his trip to the Gulf in March, has been cancelled. Berlin made no further comment on the announcement of this setback in early August. But this is undoubtedly additional bad news for Germany, which has faced a drop in Russian supplies since mid-July. After 10 days of maintenance in mid-July, the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline resumed transport at only 20% of its capacity.
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“The situation is tense and an aggravation cannot be ruled out. But at the moment the supply is stable,” states the Federal Network Agency, which publishes a daily report on the status of gas reserves in Germany. The tool is under the same scrutiny as contamination indicators were at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. We follow the development of the flow in the pipelines and the filling rate of the reservoirs. It should surpass the 75% mark in the coming days, two weeks ahead of plan. This feat of strength is mainly due to the energy starvation of the Germans: Gas consumption recorded a significant decrease of 21% compared to July 2021. Companies bear most of the effort. Mercedes should thus halve its requirements by the end of the year. And on Thursday, August 11, Siemens announced that it would now be able to do without gas altogether.
pragmatism
However, the various scenarios for the coming months, published by Netzagentur on August 7, are bleak: a single model suggests the country could escape shortages – if Germany continues to use 20% less gas, albeit reducing it by 20% of the gas volumes it transports to the rest of Europe and if the two LNG terminals under construction start operating as planned in January. Prime Minister Olaf Scholz was very confident on this point at his press conference on the start of school on Thursday, August 11th. “We will have gas,” he said, without specifying whether he was referring only to those terminals or to the reserves of the entire country.
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With so much uncertainty, pragmatism prevails: it is already important to organize rationing. German and European laws protect both the individual and the healthcare system (hospitals, retirement homes, etc.). The rest of the economy has no guarantees. Who gets gas at Christmas? The question worries all business leaders. Nothing has leaked out about the Federal Network Agency’s future arbitration proceedings. “Politics gives us maximum freedom,” recognized its director Klaus Müller on Sunday in an interview with the newspaper “Welt am Sonntag”.
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