How Many Casualties Could Nuclear War Cause? The Disturbing Study That Analyzes All Scenarios

How many dead could cause one nuclear war? The answer is uncertain and relative because it would also depend on the magnitude of the nuclear conflict. But one to learn he attempted to quantify the impact it would have on the world, and as might be expected, the estimates are apocalyptic.

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Nuclear war, studying the effects

Researchers at Rutgers University in New Jersey conducted the study, which attempted to calculate and estimate the effects of nuclear war. The team, also made up of climatologists and led by Dr. Lili Xia, attempted to estimate not only the immediate impact of the nuclear blast, but also the long-term impact on human health and global agricultural production. The study was published in Nature Food.

Nuclear War, The Apocalyptic Estimate

Researchers also attempted to estimate the impact of various nuclear conflicts between nuclear superpowers of varying degrees. Five scenarios involve wars of varying magnitude between India and Pakistan, and a sixth that between the United States and Russia. The calculations were made based on the size of each country’s nuclear arsenal, and then the estimates were based on each country’s agricultural output. One thing is certain: A nuclear war would affect the ecosystem from the smallest to the largest scale and reduce global food production. In the worst-case scenario (close-out war between India and Pakistan), global food production would fall by 7% over the next five years. In the worst case, however, the reduction could be 90% for at least three to four years. Between direct and indirect effects, a large-scale nuclear conflict between nuclear superpowers would seriously endanger the lives of at least five billion people worldwide.

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Nuclear war affecting the world

According to the study, the crop decline would be particularly severe in the high and mid-latitudes, including Russia and the United States, which are major food exporters. The effects would be devastating in several importing countries in Africa and the Middle East. In the worst-case scenario outlined by the researchers, more than 75% of the world’s population would suffer severe starvation, and agricultural production currently devoted to animals could be used to feed humans. However, this is only a preliminary estimate that does not take into account other consequences that should be examined in more detail. “A nuclear war would also destroy the ozone layer because of the heat. The consequence would be more ultraviolet radiation on the earth’s surface. This could further exacerbate global warming, but the impact of this scenario on food production deserves further study,” explained Dr. Lili Xia.