US President Joe Biden during an event at the White House.
Photo: EFE – Nathan Howard/POOL
Many Americans say they don’t want President Joe Biden re-elected, and his age is a compelling reason. In an NBC News poll released last weekend, 70 percent of adults said Biden, 80, should not run again. When asked if age was a factor, 69 percent said yes. Other recent polls note a similar lack of enthusiasm, and many voters (including about half of Democrats) believe Biden is too old to run for the White House again.
With that in mind, it’s easy to imagine that his age could harm his re-election campaign, which was officially announced on Tuesday. Biden, the oldest president in US history, would be 86 at the end of his second term. Republicans have released videos of his verbal lapses and periods of stuttering, suggesting they reflect cognitive decline. Biden’s age is a common joke on late-night television.
However, an analysis of polls and academic research reveals a surprisingly mixed picture. With the apparent caveat that a major age-related blunder or health crisis could turn things around, there’s good reason to think Biden’s age may matter less than some polls suggest.
theory versus practice
Americans may worry about aging rulers, but that hasn’t stopped them from voting for older candidates.
In a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll, half of Americans said the ideal age for a president is between 51 and 65. Another quarter said they prefer candidates aged 50 or younger. But five of the last eight presidential candidates, including Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump (twice), were much older than 65. In several instances, voters chose them over much younger opponents in primaries. And in the last century, dozens of senators or representatives over the age of 80 have been elected.
Concern about old age is also more nuanced than you might think. Although most voters are in favor of capping the age of politicians, they disagree on what that cap should be. Many of them also say that older MPs bring valuable experience and should not be prevented from serving the country if they remain in good health.
That doesn’t mean that Americans who say they worry about aging are lying. Your voting choices may reflect the options available.
“There’s nothing contradictory about people saying an 80-year-old shouldn’t run for president and then voting for an 80-year-old candidate when that’s the only option they’re given,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.
It’s also not clear that age is a disadvantage for older candidates. Older rulers tend to have lower approval ratings than younger ones, according to a 2022 study co-authored by Damon Roberts, a graduate student in political science at the University of Colorado at Boulder. But in his research, voters were about as open to backing hypothetical candidates aged 23, 50, or 77.
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the party above all
Polls suggest voters consider issues more important to Biden than other older candidates (although pollsters have asked less frequently about the ages of previous candidates). But in these divisive times, party loyalty is much more likely to drive citizens’ choices.
“At the end of the day, we’re going to vote for the ‘D’ party or the ‘R’ party,” says Karlyn Bowman, a researcher emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute who studies public opinion polls. “Party loyalty is so strong at the moment that it will take precedence over all other concerns.”
Perceptions of Biden’s suitability also depend on party affiliation. Republicans (who may not support a Democratic candidate, no matter how fit) are most likely to say Biden is too old to stay in office. Nor has his age prevented the vast majority of Democrats from considering his presidency a success (although younger Democrats are less enthusiastic about Biden running again).
“People have other issues in mind when they vote,” said Margie Omero, director of GBAO, a Democratic polling firm. “Biden’s record, Trump’s record, what they see as the future of the country, the legislative accomplishments, the fight for abortion rights.”
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just a number
This brings us to the question of whether Biden will be able to sway voters’ opinions about his suitability for office. In February, Omero and his colleagues at Navigator Research, a Democratic polling firm, recruited a small group of undecided voters to listen to Biden’s State of the Union address. Before the speech, only 35 percent of them described him as “fit for the presidency”. After the speech, which saw an unexpected back-and-forth between Biden and congressional Republicans on Social Security and Medicare, 55 percent believed Biden would be suitable.
The current president could also try to evade this issue by further restricting his public appearances. In 1996, Ayres was working on the then 93-year-old Strom Thurmond’s re-election campaign in the South Carolina Senate, at a time when he was reportedly suffering from cognitive decline.
“We’re trying to keep it as invisible as possible,” Ayres said.
Past presidents like Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan have managed to overcome questions about their age and win re-election by a comfortable margin.
But Biden is older than they were when they tried to get re-elected.
“The question isn’t as much as it is today,” Ayres said. “The question is how it will be in 2028.”
The president may need to trust voters to ignore any long-term concerns about his age.
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The trump factor
Trump, who will turn 78 on Election Day, appears best placed to win the 2024 Republican primary. He leads his closest potential rival — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 44 — in the national polls and in recommendations from other Republicans .
Although Biden and Trump’s similar ages might make the issue less important; Right now, voters are saying they’re more worried about Biden’s age. And if Trump hits Biden’s fitness hard, he could come under closer scrutiny as a younger but more measured challenger.
This is also a message Trump has previously used in a winless matchup (e.g. by calling him “Sleepy Joe” in 2020). After all, all the talk about Biden’s age may sound like old news to voters.
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