As Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, things appear to be going well for Vladimir Putin.
Its forces have thwarted Ukraine's counteroffensive and are stationed in the east of the country ahead of an expected push to consolidate the territory in the spring.
At home, the Kremlin's propaganda machine has successfully turned its neighbor's brutal invasion into a story of survival and resistance against the domineering, imperial West.
And Levada Center's independent polls show his approval rating is sky-high at 83 percent, with his passage to another term after the upcoming presidential election in March all but guaranteed.
But given heavy economic sanctions and his country's diplomatic and technological isolation from the Western world, Putin must continue to forge important partnerships elsewhere if he wants to keep the circus going.
And that brought him to the doorstep of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran poses a serious threat to the West as it is behind a variety of burgeoning militias that threaten to destabilize the security of the entire region.
But Tehran's disdain for the United States and its allies, its military might and its status as a highly influential force in the Middle East make it a perfect partner for Moscow.
Now, as the two powers appear to be close to agreeing a formal strategic partnership, Web explains how this diabolical pairing could plunge the world further into chaos.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi shake hands during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023
A Ukrainian residential building is on fire after Russian drone attacks on New Year's Eve
Residents inspect damage outside a residential building after the overnight Russian drone strike in Kharkiv, December 31, 2023
On October 17, 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a drone approaches to attack Kiev
Russian President Vladimir Putin (l) greets Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (r) during their meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace on December 7, 2023 in Moscow
That was not always so.
Over the past two centuries, the historical story between Iran and Russia has been one of tension and rivalry until the relationship took a nosedive following the Iranian Revolution in 1979.
Former Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini harbored vehement contempt not only for the United States but also for the Soviet Union.
He saw it as a dangerous, aggressive communist power that posed a threat to his new Islamist regime.
But the collapse of the Soviet Union heralded a thawing of previously frosty relations – and the rise of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin in 2000 accelerated this process significantly.
Under Putin's leadership, Moscow took a more pragmatic and diplomatic approach toward Tehran, addressing historical grievances and paving the way for a more constructive and mutually beneficial relationship.
But now both nations have been given the cold shoulder by the USA, Great Britain and the EU.
Russia and Iran have been banned from international payment systems, subjected to a barrage of sanctions and ridiculed on the world stage.
In response, Moscow and Tehran have redoubled their forces and are working more closely together than ever before, driven by mutual anger at the West and a desire to expand their influence in the east and south.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meets with a large number of elegists and eulogists in Tehran, Iran, on January 3, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (L) arrive for their working lunch at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia
Iran has for months played a key role in helping Russian forces maintain their bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
Numerous images and clips from Ukraine have shown the remains of Iranian-made kamikaze drones scattered on the streets and hidden among the rubble where civilian apartment blocks once stood.
The Islamic Republic is also believed to have provided thousands of rounds of artillery ammunition – a vital resource for Moscow's troops as they continue to conquer their Ukrainian trenches around Donetsk and Luhansk as they did in World War I.
But U.S. intelligence officials believe the pair are currently in talks over a possible deal that could see Tehran expand its military cooperation with the Kremlin to unprecedented levels after a sanction restricting missile exports expired in October is.
White House spokesman John Kirby said in November: “Iran may be preparing to go a step further in its support for Russia.”
“We are concerned that Iran is now considering providing Russia with ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine.”
Those fears appeared to be coming true earlier this month, when a U.S. intelligence official told the Wall Street Journal that talks were advanced and concluded, “We believe that Russia intends to purchase missile systems from Iran.”
Purchasing Iranian ballistic missiles to replenish depleted domestic stockpiles, coupled with recent missile deliveries from North Korea, would give Putin a major strategic advantage.
Not only could Russia penetrate deep into Ukrainian territory, but Kiev's severely undermanned air defense network would be nearly powerless to shoot down these missiles.
Only the U.S. Patriot air defense system would be capable of this, but the U.S. Congress's increasing reluctance to approve large aid packages for Ukraine suggests that this is not a luxury Zelensky can count on.
And this provision of devastating weapons is by no means a one-way street.
Iran said in November it had reached agreements for Russia to supply it with new military equipment to bolster its aging air force, including Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters and Yak-130 pilot training aircraft, not to mention a host of messaging and communication devices.
A graphic showing the Shahed kamikaze drone deployed by Russia in Ukraine
A Russian drone is seen during a Russian drone strike, which local authorities believe were Iranian-made Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), in Kiev, Ukraine, Oct. 17, 2022, during Russia's attack on Ukraine takes place
Residents inspect their destroyed apartment at the site of a drone attack on a residential building in Kiev, Ukraine, December 22, 2023
Damage at the site of a drone attack on a residential building in Kiev
Iran said in November it had reached agreements for Russia to supply it with a variety of military equipment to bolster its aging air force, including Su-35 fighter jets
Deputy Director of the MENA Program of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Ellie Geranmayeh, underlined the importance of the burgeoning military ties between Tehran and Moscow.
“Tehran’s military contribution to Russia’s war effort has made a tremendous difference in Russia’s ability to persevere in a difficult conflict.”
“Iran, once a secondary player, is now one of Russia’s key collaborators in the war in Ukraine.”
“These developments … also have the potential to give Iran a stronger military hand in the Middle East.”
This worrying convergence of Russian-Iranian military interests is also reflected in the economic sphere.
The Russian ruble and Iranian rial have fallen sharply in value due to the West's ongoing sanctions regime, and both countries' economies are sustained almost entirely by oil and gas exports.
Moscow and Tehran are now struggling to make up for their shortcomings and have found in each other a partner that faces similar challenges and needs support.
In 2022, the Iranian government announced that it would begin trading with Russia in the local currency instead of the US dollar, and recently announced that an interbank system had been established to facilitate this new payment agreement.
This decision was forced in part by excluding them from international payment systems as part of the economic punishment imposed by the West.
However, both parties are eager to reduce their dependence on Western-run systems and are in the process of increasing bilateral investment and establishing platforms aimed at revitalizing each other's economies and boosting trade.
Further evidence of this is the construction of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) – an initiative launched in 2002 by Russia, Iran and India, the aim of which was to develop infrastructure to facilitate trade and development between the three nations and others Countries like Azerbaijan.
The project has been decades behind schedule and is far from fully operational. But Russia has committed to huge investments in the program over the past year, particularly building hundreds of kilometers of railway lines from northern Iran to Azerbaijan and the southern Russian province of Dagestan.
Lana Ravandi Fadai, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said about the project: “The North-South ITC opens Russia's access to the seaports of Iran, as well as to the markets of Pakistan, India and Southeast Asia.” These are the countries and Regions that are growing rapidly economically and interaction with these markets will help Russia find a pillar for the further development of its economy in the situation of a de facto blockade by the West.”
Meanwhile, Russia and Iran are all too happy to give the green light to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Western cargo ships in the Red Sea and strongly condemn recent attacks by the UK and US on rebel positions in Yemen.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the attacks “illegitimate” and accused the White House and Downing Street of “trying to adapt the international legal system to their actions.”
A missile revealed by Iran is fired from an unknown location in Iran
Russian President Vladimir Putin (6-l), Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (6-r) and other officials attend a working lunch at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, December 07, 2023
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian
John Kirby, US national security spokesman, said: “We are concerned that Iran is now considering supplying Russia with ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine.”
At home, the Islamic Republic is already a major regional power, leading a so-called “Axis of Resistance” – groups spread across the Middle East that are forming a geopolitical and military alliance to counter threats from the West and regional rivals.
Iran has significant troops in Iraq and Syria and is the main backer of Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas, with which US-backed Israel has a bitter conflict – not to mention the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
But a strategic partnership with an influential global power like Russia could allow Iran to expand its influence beyond the Middle East and thereby enjoy a range of benefits – much to the chagrin of the West.
The Kremlin holds one of only five permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council and has the power to veto any resolution it objects to. He plays a leading role in several major multilateral organizations, most notably the BRICS countries – alongside Brazil, India, China and South Africa – and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Iran is now a full member of the BRICS after being invited to join the alliance last August, and has been granted observer status at the SCO after expressing interest in achieving full membership in the near future.
These moves reflect Iran's desire to rapidly accelerate its influence and expand its foreign policy options – important steps if the country is to continue on its current path of antagonistic exchanges with the West.
In particular, joining the BRICS states represents a milestone for Iran.
It opens new opportunities to attract more foreign direct investment, technology transfer and market access – mitigating the impact of the West's sanctions regime – and increases its credibility as part of a vast multilateral institution with a larger share of global GDP than the G7.
In short, Tehran's ever-closer ties with Moscow are crucial to helping the Islamic Republic gain greater prominence and influence on the international stage.
Against this backdrop, the brewing alliance between Putin's Russia and Iran heralds a potential storm on the world stage – one that the West cannot ignore to avoid suffering the wrath of this new axis of power.