Probably frustrated by the lack of progress in his war with Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has put Russia’s deterrent weapons – including its nuclear weapons – on alert.
Following this provocation, the question became even more critical of how many nuclear weapons Russia has and whether they could really be a realistic option for Putin.
“Putin is using his nuclear arsenal in this way because it is an instrument at his disposal, one that is mysterious and utterly terrifying,” S. Rudesil, an associate professor at the Merson Center for International Security Studies, told Al Jazeera. Ohio State University.
In addition, the resistance the Russians have encountered in Ukraine so far has played a key role in the decision, he said.
“Putin is reaching out at this point because the war is probably not going as well as he expected. He wants to change the game and regain the initiative, he wants his opponents to be out of balance and scared, wondering how he can escalate further and against whom, “added Rudesil.
(Al Jazeera)
However, it could be argued that Putin’s statement was somewhat of a strategic mistake, said Alexander Lanoshka, an assistant professor in political science at the University of Waterloo.
“It seemed like an inevitable tactic, played out too early. For Putin, this may be problematic because he may not believe in future threats. “The United States, NATO and the EU do not seem very concerned about this because we have not noticed any changes in the nuclear operations of the United States, France or Britain,” Lanoshka said.
Huge arsenal
In addition to nuclear weapons, Russian deterrence includes a huge arsenal of ballistic missiles with conventional warheads, modern cruise missiles and short-range missiles, as well as hypersonic weapons.
But it is its nuclear capability that makes Russia a force to be reckoned with.
“Russia’s nuclear arsenal is huge, as it is estimated that it has 14,000 nuclear weapons in storage. However, most of these weapons cannot be used immediately. “Closer to reality, Russia has more than 2,400 strategic nuclear weapons, most of them linked to intercontinental ballistic missile forces,” Lanoshka told Al Jazeera.
“Russia has approximately 1,600 tactical nuclear weapons located… Many of these tactical weapons will be delivered from the sea, but many others will be delivered by air or even by land.
Its reserves make Russia the world’s largest nuclear power, followed closely by the United States. Together, they hold about 93 percent of all nuclear weapons worldwide.
The United States has 3,750 active and inactive nuclear warheads, with about 150 in various parts of Europe.
The United Kingdom has naval-based deterrence, which has expanded to about 225 nuclear warheads, about half of which are operationally available on four submarines.
At any one time, about a third are in active deployment. France has a nuclear stockpile of about 300 nuclear weapons, Lanoschka said.
This discrepancy in numbers has led observers to point out gaps in NATO’s deterrent position.
The sheer number of nuclear warheads available worldwide is even more terrifying when we look at how quickly they can be launched.
“According to public sources, American intercontinental ballistic missiles [ICBMs] can fire within one to five minutes after an order from the president and US submarine-launched ballistic missiles [SLBM] can shoot in about 15 minutes. The Russian system may have a similar responsiveness, “Rudesil said.
However, there has been speculation about Russia’s nuclear course of action.
“For many decades, there has been a debate in the West about whether the Soviet Union has built a system that will allow automatic firing of nuclear weapons in the event that the Soviet leadership is beheaded,” Rudesil said.
“The threat remains low”
However, despite Putin’s rhetoric, a nuclear war between Russia and NATO remains unlikely, Lanoshka said.
“Keep in mind that Putin’s recent statement was mostly about staff at various nuclear command and control centers. It still does not seem that the strategic and non-strategic forces have changed their position. The risk of using nuclear weapons is clearly higher than normal, but the threat remains low for now.
The main reason that has prevented any nuclear attacks in the past is Mutually Guaranteed Destruction (MAD), a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy in which full-scale use of nuclear weapons by two or more warring parties would cause complete destruction of both the attacker. and the defender.
“The use of nuclear weapons by Russia is still very unlikely because the MAD remains the current state of affairs among the major nuclear powers in their deterrence. However, thanks to Putin’s reckless statement and vigilance, nuclear use is now more likely than ever since the Cold War. “Nuclear use may be more likely than at any time after the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Rudesil said.
In addition, there is still Putin’s personality that needs to be taken into account, said Erica Simpson, a professor of international politics at Western University, president of the Canadian Peace Research Association and author of NATO and the Bomb.
“Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons over Ukraine is insane. Is he crazy? Has he lost his mind in the last two years, isolated from his family because of COVID? It looks like that. And nuclear deterrence doesn’t work irrationally, “Simpson told Al Jazeera.
“MAD is supposed to be implemented, but we did not expect Putin to invade a sovereign country and put at risk Russian forces with more than 4,200 casualties. “Putin risks the lives of soldiers, like pawns in chess … These factors make it impossible for nuclear deterrence to work properly, as it requires rational decision-making, as we learned from the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,” she said.
“A nuclear attack at the tactical level may be possible, but then a dangerous escalation of MAD will follow.