Bloomberg – It was an unlikely sight in Dubai: a top oil industry executive received a standing ovation from hundreds of diplomats responsible for fighting climate change.
The head of the UAE state oil company, the Sultan Al Jaber, led COP28 for two weeks culminated in the first global agreement to abandon fossil fuels. There was no shortage of tears, some hugs and pats on the back as exhausted delegates celebrated a new success in the fight against global warming.
It was a stunning turnaround from two days ago, when negotiations were so difficult there were fears they would collapse. This would have been a real disaster for Al Jaber and his legion of paid advisers, who traveled the planet for months trying to get the support needed to reach an agreement. Furthermore, it would have been a clear sign that the Paris Agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions is collapsing, which would, among other things, be a gift to populists who reject climate change Donald Trump.
As the planet endured its hottest year on record, many countries were determined to use this opportunity to finally commit to eradicating or “phasing out” all fossil fuels. A carbon reduction had already been agreed in Glasgow in 2021, but an alliance of the US, EU and vulnerable island states wanted it at this conference The problem of oil and gas would also be addressed.
The annual climate negotiations have become increasingly complex since the breakthrough in Paris in 2015. Nations must now agree on concrete measures needed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C, forcing delegates to grapple with thorny issues that directly impact their economic prospects.
The positions of the countries have become “more unclear,” he said Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment of Brazil. “There are good allies for one paragraph, but not for another.”
This report shows how the Dubai Agreement came about based on interviews with a dozen negotiators from various countries, some of whom asked not to be identified because the discussions were private.
COP28 started promisingly with a flurry of announcements, including billions of dollars for green solutions and vulnerable communities. Nations have agreed in advance on how to manage a fund to compensate poor countries for climate damage, solving a problem that could pose a major hurdle. Al Jaber has more than 50 major oil and gas companies They promised to stop methane emissions.
But then the situation got worse.
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said on the fifth day that his country would “absolutely” accept a gradual reduction. fossil fuels. The head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which includes the United Arab Emirates, days later urged members to reject any calls to reduce fossil fuel production. Because COP decisions are made by consensus, a single country could block an agreement.
Meanwhile, Al Jaber was experiencing a crisis of confidence. Shortly before COP28 began, an article by the Center for Climate Reporting (CCR) claimed that he wanted to use his position to lobby for oil and gas deals. A video discovered days later by the Guardian revealed that he had asked whether it was necessary to phase out fossil fuels to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Al Jaber, who had hired dozens of public relations staff to manage media coverage of the summit, was visibly upset when asked about the CCR report at his first news conference. He strenuously denied any inappropriate conversation. When the second scandal broke, it took his staff a full day to convince him to clarify his comments.
The revelations increased pressure on Al Jaber to take action against fossil fuels. “He was responsible for the result” and “that is a very important incentive,” he said. Teresa Ribera, Spanish Minister for Environmental Transition. “He insisted that fossil fuels should be part of the deal.”
On Monday, that goal seemed further away than ever. Only two days By the end of COP28, Al Jaber's team released a draft in which proposed nations “could” adopt a range of options, including increasing renewable energy and reducing fossil fuels. He The language was so weak which angered countries that had pushed for progress while the Saudis and their allies wanted to avoid mention of oil and gas altogether.
“Nobody was happy with it: one sector for certain reasons and another sector for opposite reasons,” he said. Maria Susana Muhamad, Minister of the Environment of Colombia. “That created pressure on both sides to start building bridges.”
Negotiators gathered in a closed session where they explained step by step the proposal's shortcomings.
“What we saw today is unacceptable,” he said. John Silk, Head of the Marshall Islands delegation and president of a group of climate-vulnerable island states. “We will not go in silence to our water-buried graves.” A representative of Australia assured him that the country would “not sign his death certificates.”.
The draft was so universally unacceptable that it ended up uniting countries, a senior US State Department official said. Whether this was Al Jaber's intention or not, it allowed his team to push for a stronger deal or risk complete collapse.
Dozens of bilateral meetings between rival factions took place on Tuesday The United States, China and the European Union helped negotiate concessions together with the Chair of the COP.
“We are working day and night to listen to our allies in developing countries, working with shuttle diplomacy with countries like Brazil, the United States, South Africa… everyone,” he said Jennifer MorganGermany's special representative for climate.
John Kerry, the US climate representative and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, They were central figures in the unification of the countries after reaching a consensus themselves at a meeting in California last month. The special relationship between the experienced diplomats, which has developed after years of sitting at the negotiating table, has been a key factor in global climate progress in recent years. the years.
It could be the last time the two form the power center of the COP talks. Xie is retiring and it is unclear whether Kerry, who turned 80 earlier this week, will remain in office. Their many meetings in Dubai included birthday celebrations at which Xie presented Kerry with a series of framed photos of them together and his grandson presented the U.S. envoy with a card.
Kerry recalled how emotions were running high on Tuesday. “We cannot be asked to commit economic suicide,” Kerry told a minister from a fossil fuel producing country. European negotiators had at least two difficult meetings with the Saudis. The Al Jaber team met with a variety of countries while techno music played from the nearby Turkmen restaurant.
Negotiators worked into Tuesday evening, fueled by tiramisu chicken dinners, refining the language to try to please all sides. These included coal-dependent India and major oil and gas producers such as Iraq. Developing countries, especially in Africa and South America, wanted commitments to be accompanied by financial support and ensure that their financial circumstances are taken into account.
Previous international meetings served as a pillar. The inspiration for three key words – “transition away from” fossil fuels rather than “phasing out” or “phase down” – came from a recent statement from the Pacific Islands Forum. The language, which commits countries to make ambitious and far-reaching climate commitments by 2035, comes from a joint statement released after Xie and Kerry met in November.
Adnan Amin, CEO of COP28 and one of Al Jaber's key men, offered this First sign of hope on Tuesday around 8 p.m. Delegates were close to reaching an agreement, he said as he briefly left the UN climate panel's offices. But he quickly added “Inshallah” — or “God willing” in Arabic.
Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi minister, proved an unlikely helper. He joined the conversation shortly after midnight. After his previous speech at the COP, many participants saw the prince as climate enemy number one. Now here I was, trying to get through a text message. He convinced a group of developing countriesincluding heavyweights India and China, that this was a deal that skeptics could accept.
The result was a document presented on Wednesday that wasn't what anyone wanted, but that everyone could live with for now.
The The oil industry had achieved two main priorities: The agreement left room for some natural gas and emphasized carbon capture as a climate solution. This expensive technology would theoretically allow us to continue burning fossil fuels with zero emissions, although some experts warn that it represents a long-term distraction from reducing consumption.
Little progress has been made in securing funding for developing countries, and the Alliance of Small Island States warned that the pact was far from enough to address the climate crisis. “We have made incremental progress by continuing with business as usual, when what we actually needed was an exponential change in our actions and our support,” he said. Anne Rasmussenthe bloc's chief negotiator.
Still, the result is a vindication for Al Jaber, who portrayed his ties to the fossil fuel industry as an advantage and risked his reputation to lure oil-rich countries. Hosting the largest COP summit in history with more than 100,000 participants marks a diplomatic high point for the UAE. The Experts have already pointed out many shortcomings This needs to be addressed at COP29 in Azerbaijan, but they also acknowledged the obstacles that Al Jaber had to overcome.
“I don’t think anyone else would have been able to do this,” said Muhamad, the Colombian minister. “In a very paradoxical way, holding the COP here in the oil-producing heart of the world resulted in us accepting the transition away from fossil fuels.”
Read more at Bloomberg.com